2019 United Kingdom Election CONSERVATIVE WIN

Who would you vote for?

  • Total voters
    55
  • Poll closed .

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JeanLucGoddard said:
Polls mean nothing at this stage and the Lib Dems are just likely to take votes off the Tories.

The only element I see as sure is the SNP winning seats back off the Tories in Scotland.
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What the 5 odd they have? The SNP polling is pretty static, they have probably reached their zenith. Labour has more seats in scotland, also Scotland isn't all Highlands and freedom fighters their are small parts that will remain conservative especially in the south
 

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Sainteric said:
What the 5 odd they have? The SNP polling is pretty static, they have probably reached their zenith. Labour has more seats in scotland, also Scotland isn't all Highlands and freedom fighters their are small parts that will remain conservative especially in the south
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The SNP lost 12 seats to the conservatives last election.
 
Corbyn is a terrible leader and will be an even shitter PM but unfortunately he may just get there thanks to the Lib Dems. They won't be in a coalition with Boris and it does not look like Boris will win enough votes. Last election they had 42.4% of the vote and fell 9 seats short. Now they are polling at roughly 36% and have a lot of either retirements from the party or independents who were conservative not standing and that may backfire.
 
Harder to pick than a broken nose this upcoming event...

Obviously general elections should be about more than a single issue, but the Brexit issue is going to be a big factor. Some people will still vote in their tradition way for Labour or Conservative, but there are going to be many who will split "just this once" and vote Brexit party or Lib-Dems based solely upon their desired outcome for that issue over and above their normal political leaning. How and where that takes away seats from the Tories or Labour is going to come down to each individual seat and which seats each party target. Their first past the post voting system makes is more complicated to pick, there is not much correlation between between overall percentage of the national vote and seats won in the commons.

My guess is that they will end up with three blocs in the commons: conservative, labour and lib-dems, with neither able to form government in their own right but any combination of two together will defeat the third.
 
Admiral Byng said:
Harder to pick than a broken nose this upcoming event...

Obviously general elections should be about more than a single issue, but the Brexit issue is going to be a big factor. Some people will still vote in their tradition way for Labour or Conservative, but there are going to be many who will split "just this once" and vote Brexit party or Lib-Dems based solely upon their desired outcome for that issue over and above their normal political leaning. How and where that takes away seats from the Tories or Labour is going to come down to each individual seat and which seats each party target. Their first past the post voting system makes is more complicated to pick, there is not much correlation between between overall percentage of the national vote and seats won in the commons.

My guess is that they will end up with three blocs in the commons: conservative, labour and lib-dems, with neither able to form government in their own right but any combination of two together will defeat the third.
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This is where I am starting to lean. While Labour and the Lib Dems won't form a coalition, if Labour can promise a people's vote they will certainly get supply.
 
aCunningPlan said:
This is where I am starting to lean. While Labour and the Lib Dems won't form a coalition, if Labour can promise a people's vote they will certainly get supply.
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The biggest hurdle is getting the EU to agree to a 6-12 month extension so that Labour can negotiate their own deal (that will still be as bad as the May deal) that they will campaign for in a confirmatory refferrendum.
 
Underarm said:
The biggest hurdle is getting the EU to agree to a 6-12 month extension so that Labour can negotiate their own deal (that will still be as bad as the May deal) that they will campaign for in a confirmatory refferrendum.
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If Labour make it clear they still want to be in the customs union, there is a good chance the EU will jump on that.
 
Bradesmaen said:
Can't see either side winning a majority. Will just delay things more. Brexit Party will collapse to UKIP levels, won't get a seat. Look at how their vote collapsed after being a single issue joke party.
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Brexit party collapsing is a big boost to Tories though. See below. Labour want BXP to do well.

www.standard.co.uk

Johnson soars into 17-point poll lead ahead of Corbyn

EXCLUSIVE: Survey shows Tories up to 41 per cent... while Labour marooned on 24 Follow live politics updates HERE
www.standard.co.uk www.standard.co.uk
 

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its free real estate said:
Not enough remainers outside Labour voters to form a reasonable coalition
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labour voters are already leaving labour for the libs, thinking they will stick fat 100% is naive
 
its free real estate said:
Who thinks that?
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Since the beginning of the year, the labour vote has fallen from 35% to 24%, while the libs have risen from 10% to 18%

So 66% of the people who have ditched labour this year think that
 
Ned_Flanders said:
Since the beginning of the year, the labour vote has fallen from 35% to 24%, while the libs have risen from 10% to 18%

So 66% of the people who have ditched labour this year think that
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Who thinks 100% of Labour will stick fat, as you said?

24% is still a significant voting bloc without which there is no path to government, and no playing dead move from anti-Brexit forces can significantly win seats in any agreement. You’re living in a fantasy land.

The result of the election will be a Conservative led government. Possibly governing outright.
 
So Corbyn is promising to deliver Brexit within 6 months.

It's like he wants to fail.
 
its free real estate said:
Who thinks 100% of Labour will stick fat, as you said?

24% is still a significant voting bloc without which there is no path to government, and no playing dead move from anti-Brexit forces can significantly win seats in any agreement. You’re living in a fantasy land.

The result of the election will be a Conservative led government. Possibly governing outright.
Click to expand...

Who said anything about winning govt? I think both Boris and Corbyn are a joke. I'm talking about having a block of seats large enough to actually get a 50% on Brexit, which must pass party lines
 
ChappyUK said:
So Corbyn is promising to deliver Brexit within 6 months.

It's like he wants to fail.
Click to expand...
Did he say that? At least he's finally being honest about his views on it then
 
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