2019 Young Talent Time

Walkingwounded

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Aug 23, 2017
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The context is Henry.

The maximum value for Henry is have picks in the 40’s.

We can trade our pick 25 to the Dogs for picks 42,44,45.

If Henry slides, we may have pick 45 to use on a WA talent.
I think we are likely to be active in trade period including using our next years 2nd pick , and will likely get multiple picks in to 20’s..

Henry May very well consume one of them, but don’t trade down..

If necessary do a live trade, if we know someone will likely pick him, but that’s about it.

15-30 is the sweet spot for some of the WA types of interest, so we need to be about then to get the sliders..

After that I feel the pickings this year are slimmer, and more of a gamble.
 

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Chris25

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The idea of stockpiling picks in the 40s to use as points for Henry is a poor one in my opinion. You do that and then you’re picking into the fourth and fifth round to fill out the list. And I don’t think the draft is that good. It’s a fine strategy if you have limited list spots, but I suspect we’ll have another decent turnover.

I’d rather we picked up extra first or second round picks if we could. Use a high pick for Henry if we have to, and then still have some decent picks in the second round leftover.

Who cares about getting good ‘value’. We’re getting him either way, the focus should be on doing so without hurting the rest of our draft crop. If we went into the draft without any picks after 40, then we’ve done well.
 

eastfreo75

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I think we are likely to be active in trade period including using our next years 2nd pick , and will likely get multiple picks in to 20’s..

Henry May very well consume one of them, but don’t trade down..

If necessary do a live trade, if we know someone will likely pick him, but that’s about it.

15-30 is the sweet spot for some of the WA types of interest, so we need to be about then to get the sliders..

After that I feel the pickings this year are slimmer, and more of a gamble.
If Henry goes around 12-14 you burn 2 second round picks and upgrade a fifth round to a third round.

Unless, you do a Swans-eagle hiding trade.
 

eastfreo75

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The idea of stockpiling picks in the 40s to use as points for Henry is a poor one in my opinion. You do that and then you’re picking into the fourth and fifth round to fill out the list. And I don’t think the draft is that good. It’s a fine strategy if you have limited list spots, but I suspect we’ll have another decent turnover.

I’d rather we picked up extra first or second round picks if we could. Use a high pick for Henry if we have to, and then still have some decent picks in the second round leftover.

Who cares about getting good ‘value’. We’re getting him either way, the focus should be on doing so without hurting the rest of our draft crop. If we went into the draft without any picks after 40, then we’ve done well.
You can pass on those picks and go with a main list of 38 instead of 40.

Allows for more rookie spots.
 

Superkoops

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May 7, 2009
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The idea of stockpiling picks in the 40s to use as points for Henry is a poor one in my opinion. You do that and then you’re picking into the fourth and fifth round to fill out the list. And I don’t think the draft is that good. It’s a fine strategy if you have limited list spots, but I suspect we’ll have another decent turnover.

I’d rather we picked up extra first or second round picks if we could. Use a high pick for Henry if we have to, and then still have some decent picks in the second round leftover.

Who cares about getting good ‘value’. We’re getting him either way, the focus should be on doing so without hurting the rest of our draft crop. If we went into the draft without any picks after 40, then we’ve done well.
You make a good point. The best way to handle Henry which could also include live trading as discussed, is to get a couple of early picks ahead of him and then some second round picks. His draft range appears to be around 13-21 give or take. Get in before or from the tail end of this range. If we we have two top 10 picks, then Henry is bid around 14-16 then we can use our next pick in the 20’s which will drag forward to a first rounder and maybe even get us a pick in the late fourth from the change which is ahead of our existing fifth round pick.
 

nurries

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You make a good point. The best way to handle Henry which could also include live trading as discussed, is to get a couple of early picks ahead of him and then some second round picks. His draft range appears to be around 13-21 give or take. Get in before or from the tail end of this range. If we we have two top 10 picks, then Henry is bid around 14-16 then we can use our next pick in the 20’s which will drag forward to a first rounder and maybe even get us a pick in the late fourth from the change which is ahead of our existing fifth round pick.
Won’t be surprised if Carlton bid on him with their Adelaide pick as they need a small forward
 

Snuffaluphagus

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Sep 10, 2015
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If we lose the three we are rumoured to be losing and go full pick mode we could easily end up with;

5,8,20,26, 27 (though that's being optimistic on band 3 for Shilly).

Would probably be worth holding 20 and 26 to draft day and upgrading if there's a player we like while also getting ahead of a Henry bid. Could end up with, in effect, 4 first round picks
 

Vimal Anand

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Oct 19, 2015
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The idea of stockpiling picks in the 40s to use as points for Henry is a poor one in my opinion. You do that and then you’re picking into the fourth and fifth round to fill out the list. And I don’t think the draft is that good. It’s a fine strategy if you have limited list spots, but I suspect we’ll have another decent turnover.

I’d rather we picked up extra first or second round picks if we could. Use a high pick for Henry if we have to, and then still have some decent picks in the second round leftover.

Who cares about getting good ‘value’. We’re getting him either way, the focus should be on doing so without hurting the rest of our draft crop. If we went into the draft without any picks after 40, then we’ve done well.
Hi Chris and others- just checking a scenario if anyone of you know
- whether the new rule of AFL to stop teams from stock piling later picks will affect us in the following circumstances?
I am assuming langdon will stay ( just for an example) hill will leave and sandi,balla kersten and bennell not in team and one delisting
That is 6 spots and I am assuming kelly comes . that leaves 5 spots.we are going to draft with just 5 picks... pick 7/8, trading 26 for bulldogs 3 picks and the last pick...
Trade starts we pick a player at 8, picking henry at 12 (trusting twomey) that eats 3 bulldog picks . Then when trade reaches a pick range where we valued certain players (1 or 2 WA players especially) we some how get 2 late first round ( or one may be early second) trading our next year picks. so we are picking pick 8, pick 12 pick 16 pick 19 (for example) and very last pick= total 5

My doubt- is this allowed?
for some reason western bulldogs 3 picks after eating henry pick , become a very late pick we may have 6 picks instead of 5- is that allowed? will it prevent us from trading next years pick as it exceeds list spots...(even if kelly doesn't come this situation can happen)
if it prevents, we may need to trade back that last pick with next years pick to stay with in the maximum allowed pick numbers?
will that be allowed?
Thanks in advance.................
 

Ysaye

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Hi Chris and others- just checking a scenario if anyone of you know
- whether the new rule of AFL to stop teams from stock piling later picks will affect us in the following circumstances?
I am assuming langdon will stay ( just for an example) hill will leave and sandi,balla kersten and bennell not in team and one delisting
That is 6 spots and I am assuming kelly comes . that leaves 5 spots.we are going to draft with just 5 picks... pick 7/8, trading 26 for bulldogs 3 picks and the last pick...
Trade starts we pick a player at 8, picking henry at 12 (trusting twomey) that eats 3 bulldog picks . Then when trade reaches a pick range where we valued certain players (1 or 2 WA players especially) we some how get 2 late first round ( or one may be early second) trading our next year picks. so we are picking pick 8, pick 12 pick 16 pick 19 (for example) and very last pick= total 5

My doubt- is this allowed?
for some reason western bulldogs 3 picks after eating henry pick , become a very late pick we may have 6 picks instead of 5- is that allowed? will it prevent us from trading next years pick as it exceeds list spots...(even if kelly doesn't come this situation can happen)
if it prevents, we may need to trade back that last pick with next years pick to stay with in the maximum allowed pick numbers?
will that be allowed?
Thanks in advance.................

Not allowed if I understand your scenario and the rules correctly.
The first "Bulldogs" pick would get downgraded based on the difference of allocated points between the bid and your next pick not multiple picks eaten. As Chris said, we don't want to be hanging around the backend of this draft, so substantial downgrading of picks into the abyss is not ideal; it would be better to take Henry "at value".

I also honestly don't think we will go out of our way to trade to get a pick specifically to get WA talent; talent more generally that we rate yes (like the Valente trade from last year).

Also some of the trades are probably pretty optimistic, and if they did happen you have to really worry about the quality of the draft compared to next year...
 

Taylor

Formerly 'Tayl0r'
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The first round academy value is in getting use of our first round pick prior to the bid, either pick someone else or trade it for a player.
 

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Taylor

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If we pass on national draft selections to take more rookie picks we are adding rookie choices to the end of the rookie draft. Effectively passing on our pick #60 to take the players at the very end of the draft.

The benefit would be if we are intending to cycle our rookie list after just twelve months - can't do that in the national draft unless they are older than twenty four I believe.
 

Vimal Anand

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Oct 19, 2015
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Not allowed if I understand your scenario and the rules correctly.
The first "Bulldogs" pick would get downgraded based on the difference of allocated points between the bid and your next pick not multiple picks eaten. As Chris said, we don't want to be hanging around the backend of this draft, so substantial downgrading of picks into the abyss is not ideal; it would be better to take Henry "at value".

I also honestly don't think we will go out of our way to trade to get a pick specifically to get WA talent; talent more generally that we rate yes (like the Valente trade from last year).

Also some of the trades are probably pretty optimistic, and if they did happen you have to really worry about the quality of the draft compared to next year...
Thank you.... But pick 26 will be sufficient to bid Henry at 12? pick 12 value 1268 and pick 26 is 729 ie we are short by 539 which will be deducted from our next year pick say 12. which is again 1268 and will be reduced by 539 ie we will down to pick 26 around..... May be good idea like Taylor pointed out -to trade in a pick before henry' s bid...by using next years first..?
 

Taylor

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Players of note taken between pick 60 and rookie draft:
2017: North, Meek, Switta, Jones, Guelfi
2016: Dylan Clarke, Pat Kerr, Luke Ryan, Nick Larkey, Mitchell Lewis, Jake Waterman
2015: Shane Yarran, Ben Crocker, Sam Menegola, Nathan Broad

There are some mature aged gems to be found in that last patch of the draft
 

The Lyon Roars

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Oct 14, 2011
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If we lose the three we are rumoured to be losing and go full pick mode we could easily end up with;

5,8,20,26, 27 (though that's being optimistic on band 3 for Shilly).

Would probably be worth holding 20 and 26 to draft day and upgrading if there's a player we like while also getting ahead of a Henry bid. Could end up with, in effect, 4 first round picks
If you could wheel and deal 5 and 8 for say 10,12,14,16 to go with 20 and 48 would you do it. I suggest it because to me the players after the top three are much of a muchness (but good talent) through to about pick 25. Last year it dropped of after the first 15.
 

Walkingwounded

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Aug 23, 2017
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Thank you.... But pick 26 will be sufficient to bid Henry at 12? pick 12 value 1268 and pick 26 is 729 ie we are short by 539 which will be deducted from our next year pick say 12. which is again 1268 and will be reduced by 539 ie we will down to pick 26 around..... May be good idea like Taylor pointed out -to trade in a pick before henry' s bid...by using next years first..?
This scenario falls apart as you haven’t considered the discount we get on Henry which means when’s he is bid on, and we accept then the amount we pay is discounted 20% to the actual point valuation of where he was picked.

In your example if bid on at pick 12 we are only required to front up with 1014 points ( the discount point value) or effectively pick 17.

My understanding is that the point difference is actually taken from the next pick/s you have this year.. unless you have no points left at all, then it’s taken from next years points.. first round picks are immune if I recall.
 

eastfreo75

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 11, 2011
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If we pass on national draft selections to take more rookie picks we are adding rookie choices to the end of the rookie draft. Effectively passing on our pick #60 to take the players at the very end of the draft.

The benefit would be if we are intending to cycle our rookie list after just twelve months - can't do that in the national draft unless they are older than twenty four I believe.
Ok understand now.

Last year, Richmond left one rookie spot and then filled it with Stack in the pre-season.

We could leave 2 spots open and which gives the flexibility to cover injuries or the Stack like kids.
 

Snuffaluphagus

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Sep 10, 2015
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If you could wheel and deal 5 and 8 for say 10,12,14,16 to go with 20 and 48 would you do it. I suggest it because to me the players after the top three are much of a muchness (but good talent) through to about pick 25. Last year it dropped of after the first 15.
Just overkill at that stage. Better off getting your pick of the better talent with 5 and 8, turning a couple of 2nds into a teen pick and getting Henry on top of that IMO.

On draft night, trade back into 2nd after a bid on Henry comes
 

Snuffaluphagus

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This scenario falls apart as you haven’t considered the discount we get on Henry which means when’s he is bid on, and we accept then the amount we pay is discounted 20% to the actual point valuation of where he was picked.

In your example if bid on at pick 12 we are only required to front up with 1014 points ( the discount point value) or effectively pick 17.

My understanding is that the point difference is actually taken from the next pick/s you have this year.. unless you have no points left at all, then it’s taken from next years points.. first round picks are immune if I recall.
This is my understanding. In addition there comes a point where the point differential is ignored but I can’t remember the value
 

Vimal Anand

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This scenario falls apart as you haven’t considered the discount we get on Henry which means when’s he is bid on, and we accept then the amount we pay is discounted 20% to the actual point valuation of where he was picked.

In your example if bid on at pick 12 we are only required to front up with 1014 points ( the discount point value) or effectively pick 17.

My understanding is that the point difference is actually taken from the next pick/s you have this year.. unless you have no points left at all, then it’s taken from next years points.. first round picks are immune if I recall.
if 1st pick is immune then fine
 

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