Prediction 2020 AFC Best and Fairest - Congratulations Reilly O'Brien!

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footy4ever

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 23, 2008
20,598
25,317
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Here is my absolute best attempt at scaling the 2020 voting system to match the 2019-2016 seasons so we can compare players and get a look at the whole list. The scaling formula is based on how the coaches voted in wins vs losses and how they assessed good games vs bad games. It's not perfect but people might find the results interesting at the very least

View attachment 970833
Love your work with the visuals!
 

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Eagleboy2011

Premiership Player
May 16, 2015
4,250
5,622
AFL Club
Adelaide
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WWTFC
Top 10

Reilly O’Brien – 81
Rory Laird – 80
Luke Brown – 76
Matt Crouch – 72
Ben Keays – 65
Brodie Smith – 61
Shane McAdam – 56
Kyle Hartigan – 54
Tom Lynch – 53
Rory Sloane – 51

Astonished Hartigan and Sloane finished above Talia.

Great to see Keays and McAdam in the top 10
Keays monstered Brown, positions should be reversed. Lynch 's total is a surprise considering injuries and form. Same as Sloane.
 

dylan123

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 3, 2008
8,117
5,443
AFL Club
Adelaide
Pretty brutal averages but I suppose it reflects the season as a whole.

Going down the list to guys averaging 3 looks awful but they're basically a vote per game from being top 10.

I wonder if Talia is so low as he's only defensive minded? Doesn't really fit in given Brown is much the same but rather surprised by his poor polling.

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thebirdman 24

Premiership Player
Oct 8, 2007
3,712
2,889
Melbourne
AFL Club
Adelaide
It's a reminder that it is year 1 of the rebuild and we are still a few years away from our next generation taking over. I think we cant expect more than a bottom 4 finish again next year.

We will get plenty of low picks over the next few years which shouls hopefully produce some elite talent which we are lacking.
It is and it isnt.

Our youngsters all had moments in games but didn't put too many full games together.

They'll be alright, but they need to be.
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hey shorty

TheBrownDog
Jun 15, 2005
57,376
48,101
Where the Hills have eyes
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It's a reminder that it is year 1 of the rebuild and we are still a few years away from our next generation taking over. I think we cant expect more than a bottom 4 finish again next year.

We will get plenty of low picks over the next few years which shouls hopefully produce some elite talent which we are lacking.

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Yeah I'd agree with that.

The good thing for mine is how a few of those inexperienced finished the season. Butts played well when given a chance, Sholl and Scho finished well as did Mcadam and Berg.

Normally you'd see those types fade as the season goes, they went the other way.
 

BACCS

BigFooty Juggernaut
May 10, 2009
45,941
26,441
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Gary Putland, Redbacks, Oz Cricket
That feels like a pretty decent reflection of our season, Brown surprised a little but he has always been consistent and polled well in these counts.

I don’t think Talia ever had an outstanding game this season, but his knee issues wouldn’t be helping with that. Hartigan definitely had more standout games, especially when our form as a whole improved, so not surprising to see him finish higher. Do we keep Hartigan?
 

1970crow

Hall of Famer
Jun 7, 2011
38,332
39,572
Port MacDonnell yay!!!
AFL Club
Adelaide
True, we'll see where he stacks up in votes per game. That said he wasn't in the top 10 after 9 games (played the first 8) so I don't think he polled well
Sloane polled very well despite having a very bad year. Was injured and putrid until he did his wrist and no more than a role playing mid at best upon returning. 2-3 decent/good games. There's no doubts different players are rated differently depending on name.
 

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hey shorty

TheBrownDog
Jun 15, 2005
57,376
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Where the Hills have eyes
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Sloane polled very well despite having a very bad year. Was injured and putrid until he did his wrist and no more than a role playing mid at best upon returning. 2-3 decent/good games. There's no doubts different players are rated differently depending on name.
So you reckon our reigning BnF wouldn't be one of those players ??
 

1970crow

Hall of Famer
Jun 7, 2011
38,332
39,572
Port MacDonnell yay!!!
AFL Club
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So you reckon our reigning BnF wouldn't be one of those players ??
No reason that he would. Tex polled unexpectedly well early and Talia pretty poorly. This is a new system brought in by Nicks, I think that leads to whatever his bias being more strongly represented than others. If you're one of our coaches, and let's not forget they've all been sacked, and you weren't 100% sure of the voting system, you'd probably not argue against too much or be too strong. I expect there's a few outliers.
 

Daniels Riches

Club Legend
Oct 16, 2011
1,272
4,064
Melbourne
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Brisbane Lions
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Sorry for the intrusion, but stoked for Benny Keays to finish in the top 5. Great to see he has turned his career around and found a role in your side. He has a great personality and is a ripping bloke also. You wouldn’t find a Lions supporter that wouldn’t wish him the best. Have a great offseason and looking forward to seeing who you call out on draft night.


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hey shorty

TheBrownDog
Jun 15, 2005
57,376
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No reason that he would. Tex polled unexpectedly well early and Talia pretty poorly. This is a new system brought in by Nicks, I think that leads to whatever his bias being more strongly represented than others. If you're one of our coaches, and let's not forget they've all been sacked, and you weren't 100% sure of the voting system, you'd probably not argue against too much or be too strong. I expect there's a few outliers.
How's that tinfoil hat ??
 

VictorianCrow85

Club Legend
Jul 22, 2016
2,469
3,252
AFL Club
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Keays monstered Brown, positions should be reversed. Lynch 's total is a surprise considering injuries and form. Same as Sloane.
Contrary to what many say Lynch was actually in good form early in the year, most of our scores come as a result of his play making. Granted there weren't heaps but he was pretty solid in a crap team. I don't get all the hate he's copped this year. Shoudn't be playing him & Walker in the same team despite Lynches ability to hit Walker up better than anyone. Both lack defensive pressure so we can't carry both in that regard in the modern game.
 

hey shorty

TheBrownDog
Jun 15, 2005
57,376
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Where the Hills have eyes
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Contrary to what many say Lynch was actually in good form early in the year, most of our scores come as a result of his play making. Granted there weren't heaps but he was pretty solid in a crap team. I don't get all the hate he's copped this year. Shoudn't be playing him & Walker in the same team despite Lynches ability to hit Walker up better than anyone. Both lack defensive pressure so we can't carry both in that regard in the modern game.
Lynch is never as good or as bad as is said here.
 

VictorianCrow85

Club Legend
Jul 22, 2016
2,469
3,252
AFL Club
Adelaide
Lynch is never as good or as bad as is said here.
Yeah I'm not saying he's a gun, reality is defensively he's not good enough, offensively he's our best attacking play maker with his aggressive ball use and quick decision making after taking a mark. The only one who can be as damaging is Smith on a good day but he's fairly sporadic when he delivers those matches.
 

Dirty Bird

Pokémon Master
Aug 1, 2010
30,090
16,825
Adelaide
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#BostonStrong #RiseUp
Ah yes .... makes sense.....

On another note, ROB is going to be an A Grader - he is well on the way. Extremely glad we did not try and get Grundy last year despite all the people squaking for it on here. ROB will be an all australian within the next 24 months.
Mast year when the rumours were high, and Carlton were still last. I went to the alma and suggested to roo, ‘with robs trajectory I think I’d rather keep rob than get grundy’

Looking a good call right about now.
 

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