Prediction 2020 AFC Best and Fairest - Congratulations Reilly O'Brien!

[FR0GGY]

That thread didn't age well

It didn’t age well after a few weeks.

 

[FR0GGY]

In reality Talia is just as cooked as Walker.

 

[footy4ever]

Here is my absolute best attempt at scaling the 2020 voting system to match the 2019-2016 seasons so we can compare players and get a look at the whole list. The scaling formula is based on how the coaches voted in wins vs losses and how they assessed good games vs bad games. It's not perfect but people might find the results interesting at the very least

View attachment 970833

Love your work with the visuals!

 

[Eagleboy2011]

Top 10

Reilly O’Brien – 81
Rory Laird – 80
Luke Brown – 76
Matt Crouch – 72
Ben Keays – 65
Brodie Smith – 61
Shane McAdam – 56
Kyle Hartigan – 54
Tom Lynch – 53
Rory Sloane – 51

Astonished Hartigan and Sloane finished above Talia.

Great to see Keays and McAdam in the top 10

Keays monstered Brown, positions should be reversed. Lynch 's total is a surprise considering injuries and form. Same as Sloane.

 

[thebirdman 24]

Only 2 out the top 10 are what you would describe as young players in Keays and Mcadam. Alarming.

On SM-A205YN using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[marty36]

Looking at that top 10 not sure who would qualify as a gun player which the majority of AFL teams have that can win a game off his own boot

We need to find a couple quickly

On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[hey shorty]

Only 2 out the top 10 are what you would describe as young players in Keays and Mcadam. Alarming.

On SM-A205YN using BigFooty.com mobile app

It is and it isnt.

Our youngsters all had moments in games but didn't put too many full games together.

They'll be alright, but they need to be.

 

[dylan123]

Pretty brutal averages but I suppose it reflects the season as a whole.

Going down the list to guys averaging 3 looks awful but they're basically a vote per game from being top 10.

I wonder if Talia is so low as he's only defensive minded? Doesn't really fit in given Brown is much the same but rather surprised by his poor polling.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

 

[thebirdman 24]

It's a reminder that it is year 1 of the rebuild and we are still a few years away from our next generation taking over. I think we cant expect more than a bottom 4 finish again next year.

We will get plenty of low picks over the next few years which shouls hopefully produce some elite talent which we are lacking.

It is and it isnt.

Our youngsters all had moments in games but didn't put too many full games together.

They'll be alright, but they need to be.

On SM-A205YN using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[hey shorty]

It's a reminder that it is year 1 of the rebuild and we are still a few years away from our next generation taking over. I think we cant expect more than a bottom 4 finish again next year.

We will get plenty of low picks over the next few years which shouls hopefully produce some elite talent which we are lacking.

On SM-A205YN using BigFooty.com mobile app

Yeah I'd agree with that.

The good thing for mine is how a few of those inexperienced finished the season. Butts played well when given a chance, Sholl and Scho finished well as did Mcadam and Berg.

Normally you'd see those types fade as the season goes, they went the other way.

 

[1970crow]

If Keays ain't getting votes early then no way he's finishing top 5 or even top 10 at this rate.

was poor early. Started being influential around his 4th game.

 

[BACCS]

That feels like a pretty decent reflection of our season, Brown surprised a little but he has always been consistent and polled well in these counts.

I don’t think Talia ever had an outstanding game this season, but his knee issues wouldn’t be helping with that. Hartigan definitely had more standout games, especially when our form as a whole improved, so not surprising to see him finish higher. Do we keep Hartigan?

 

[1970crow]

True, we'll see where he stacks up in votes per game. That said he wasn't in the top 10 after 9 games (played the first 8) so I don't think he polled well

Sloane polled very well despite having a very bad year. Was injured and putrid until he did his wrist and no more than a role playing mid at best upon returning. 2-3 decent/good games. There's no doubts different players are rated differently depending on name.

 

[hey shorty]

Sloane polled very well despite having a very bad year. Was injured and putrid until he did his wrist and no more than a role playing mid at best upon returning. 2-3 decent/good games. There's no doubts different players are rated differently depending on name.

So you reckon our reigning BnF wouldn't be one of those players ??

 

[1970crow]

Here’s the voting protocol

View attachment 970809

I'm at a loss to understand the different ratings of playing team role. once you've got 2 votes for playing your role, surely the rest is about impact on team performance. What's the functional difference between playing your team role and playing the role elitely.

 

[1970crow]

So you reckon our reigning BnF wouldn't be one of those players ??

No reason that he would. Tex polled unexpectedly well early and Talia pretty poorly. This is a new system brought in by Nicks, I think that leads to whatever his bias being more strongly represented than others. If you're one of our coaches, and let's not forget they've all been sacked, and you weren't 100% sure of the voting system, you'd probably not argue against too much or be too strong. I expect there's a few outliers.

 

[Daniels Riches]

Sorry for the intrusion, but stoked for Benny Keays to finish in the top 5. Great to see he has turned his career around and found a role in your side. He has a great personality and is a ripping bloke also. You wouldn’t find a Lions supporter that wouldn’t wish him the best. Have a great offseason and looking forward to seeing who you call out on draft night. ️


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[hey shorty]

No reason that he would. Tex polled unexpectedly well early and Talia pretty poorly. This is a new system brought in by Nicks, I think that leads to whatever his bias being more strongly represented than others. If you're one of our coaches, and let's not forget they've all been sacked, and you weren't 100% sure of the voting system, you'd probably not argue against too much or be too strong. I expect there's a few outliers.

How's that tinfoil hat ??

 

[1970crow]

In reality Talia is just as cooked as Walker.

Not quite, but not far away. If the Essendon rumour results in anything more than 1 year extension, it'll be a bit of a problem. And it's not as obvious as a defender unless you're on a leading and mobile player with space to use. And you get to choose your match ups.

 

[VictorianCrow85]

Keays monstered Brown, positions should be reversed. Lynch 's total is a surprise considering injuries and form. Same as Sloane.

Contrary to what many say Lynch was actually in good form early in the year, most of our scores come as a result of his play making. Granted there weren't heaps but he was pretty solid in a crap team. I don't get all the hate he's copped this year. Shoudn't be playing him & Walker in the same team despite Lynches ability to hit Walker up better than anyone. Both lack defensive pressure so we can't carry both in that regard in the modern game.

 

[hey shorty]

Contrary to what many say Lynch was actually in good form early in the year, most of our scores come as a result of his play making. Granted there weren't heaps but he was pretty solid in a crap team. I don't get all the hate he's copped this year. Shoudn't be playing him & Walker in the same team despite Lynches ability to hit Walker up better than anyone. Both lack defensive pressure so we can't carry both in that regard in the modern game.

Lynch is never as good or as bad as is said here.

 

[VictorianCrow85]

Lynch is never as good or as bad as is said here.

Yeah I'm not saying he's a gun, reality is defensively he's not good enough, offensively he's our best attacking play maker with his aggressive ball use and quick decision making after taking a mark. The only one who can be as damaging is Smith on a good day but he's fairly sporadic when he delivers those matches.

 

[GreyCrow]

Congrats to RoB - well deserved win and the 1st of many

Special mention to McPherson on his 2 awards

 

[1970crow]

How's that tinfoil hat ??

Consensus voting is biased towards the strongest character. Obviously you've not sat on a board or committee. Not exactly an extraordinary claim. Then take into account the system is Nicks' baby and only the truely demented wouldn't realise he would have been the major influence on voting.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Ah yes .... makes sense.....

On another note, ROB is going to be an A Grader - he is well on the way. Extremely glad we did not try and get Grundy last year despite all the people squaking for it on here. ROB will be an all australian within the next 24 months.

Mast year when the rumours were high, and Carlton were still last. I went to the alma and suggested to roo, ‘with robs trajectory I think I’d rather keep rob than get grundy’

Looking a good call right about now.