Resource 2020 AFL Draft Order

[Lore]

See OP for details: click here

If you would like to embed this spreadsheet elsewhere on the forum please copy and paste the following

[MEDIA="googlespreadsheetnew"]1qZalgdA8pyGSTpXQxIcEGm8ZVacZOJNmHYs6YTQhbl8[/MEDIA]

 

[Lore]

What you have done all makes sense. It's the afl's list that doesn't. They seem to have applied PA's deficit to the wrong pick.
Why not their girst secknd round pick?

The deficits are evidently being applied to the picks tied to their own finishing positions. So Port's own second rounder, not the second rounders that they got through trade that are tied to Fremantle and Collingwood's finishing positions.

I don't know exactly why they've done it that way, but the original rule with future pick trading was that you could only trade either your first rounder or your later round picks, which would have meant that you'd have either a first or second round pick attached to your own finishing position that would be available to apply a deficit to, so in that sense it keeps it all pretty simple so you can't avoid paying a deficit.

When the O'Meara trade went through though it turned out that you could trade out of both the first round and the later rounds of the future draft (as long as you brought other picks in from the appropriate rounds). Which means that it is possible that you end up with no future picks at all tied to your own finishing position.

We have no idea how a deficit would be handled in that scenario. I suppose the AFL will reveal the rule or loophole that best suits their preferred outcome if and when that scenario occurs.

 

[smurfin]

Great job on this Lorre. I'm quite mathematically minded but find this all gets ridiculously confusing.

One question that you may or may not be able to answer:
After all the trading is done and we head into the draft, do the picks then retain their initial value or does their value slide as they get pushed back and forward according to other picks moving up and down to match points?
eg, Richmond currently have 1893 points, but does this reduce as other clubs match bids and our picks slide back? Makes it confusing for clubs on draft night if they have to constantly reassess the value of their points as their picks change due to everyone else's actions.

 

[Lore]

Great job on this Lorre. I'm quite mathematically minded but find this all gets ridiculously confusing.

One question that you may or may not be able to answer:
After all the trading is done and we head into the draft, do the picks then retain their initial value or does their value slide as they get pushed back and forward according to other picks moving up and down to match points?
eg, Richmond currently have 1893 points, but does this reduce as other clubs match bids and our picks slide back? Makes it confusing for clubs on draft night if they have to constantly reassess the value of their points as their picks change due to everyone else's actions.

Thanks! Yeah it is confusing.

Our current understanding is that the pick value slides as the pick number changes, so you might start with pick 10, which is worth 1395 points, but it slides to pick 12 as other picks are inserted into the order above your pick, and the pick is then worth 1268 points. Which makes sense as picking twelfth in the order is obviously not as good as picking tenth, so the point value reflects that

When a deficit is applied and the pick falls between two other picks, it slots into that position between those two picks and if there are any points leftover they are retained in surplus for future bid-matching.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

When they introduced points and the value of pick swaps, it was game over for me.

 

[Lore]

When they introduced points and the value of pick swaps, it was game over for me.

All the bid matching stuff haha. That and future picks is why I started tracking picks through the year in the first place! No one knows what picks their club has anymore.

 

[Dockeroo]

All the bid matching stuff haha. That and future picks is why I started tracking picks through the year in the first place! No one knows what picks their club has anymore.

Am I correct in saying that if freo had hypothetically did a swap of 2021 first rounders after the Henry bid last year with another club (say the bulldogs for arguments sake) then they wouldn’t be paying the deficit till round 2 this year? Or maybe not... I’m confused

 

[Lore]

Am I correct in saying that if freo had hypothetically did a swap of 2021 first rounders after the Henry bid last year with another club (say the bulldogs for arguments sake) then they wouldn’t be paying the deficit till round 2 this year? Or maybe not... I’m confused

No idea. The AFL has never made explicit how deficits are applied.

If I were writing the rule I'd apply the deficits in order of preference:
1. Club's own pick, in the same round as the matched bid
2. A pick that the club has acquired via trade, in the same round as the matched bid, highest ranking pick first
3. Club's own pick, in the round following the round of the matched bid
4. A pick that the club has acquired via trade, in the round following the matched bid

Whether the AFL would do that or not, we have no way of knowing until it happens.

 

[Lore]

Finals Week 1:



Dogs finish 8th, West Coast 7th. Picks attached to the finishing positions of those clubs are now settled.

 

[Thetrader15]

Am I correct in saying that if freo had hypothetically did a swap of 2021 first rounders after the Henry bid last year with another club (say the bulldogs for arguments sake) then they wouldn’t be paying the deficit till round 2 this year? Or maybe not... I’m confused

Correct. Similar to what Port are doing this year, knowing Jones will be top 10 or thereabouts.

 

[JackBero]

Lore is there any reason geelong’s pick 11 is highlighted in black?

 

[Lore]

Lore is there any reason geelong’s pick 11 is highlighted in black?

Black is the colour for priority and compensation picks

Pick 11 was originally Gold Coast's priority pick that they traded to Geelong last year

 

[eth-dog]

Indicative draft order: Your club's picks as they stand

Saints, Pies have their first-round picks confirmed but their coaches have flagged plenty of trade action

www.afl.com.au

That says that Port's deficit is on their own second round pick.

 

[Lore]

Indicative draft order: Your club's picks as they stand

Saints, Pies have their first-round picks confirmed but their coaches have flagged plenty of trade action

www.afl.com.au

That says that Port's deficit is on their own second round pick.

Welcome to the thread Ethan

 

[Lore]

After Semi-Finals:

 

[freo_leo29]

Am I correct in saying that if freo had hypothetically did a swap of 2021 first rounders after the Henry bid last year with another club (say the bulldogs for arguments sake) then they wouldn’t be paying the deficit till round 2 this year? Or maybe not... I’m confused

Correct. Similar to what Port are doing this year, knowing Jones will be top 10 or thereabouts.

I believe our future pick was locked after we matched the bid of Henry with a deficit. As in we could not trade it as it had a deficit attached.

Port were slightly different in that they traded away their future 1st before matching a bid.

 

[Lore]

I believe our future pick was locked after we matched the bid of Henry with a deficit. As in we could not trade it as it had a deficit attached.

Port were slightly different in that they traded away their future 1st before matching a bid.

There is no opportunity to trade it between last year's draft and this year's trade period. The deficit is applied before the trade period.

Unless you mean that you could not trade it during live trading later in the draft?

 

[freo_leo29]

There is no opportunity to trade it between last year's draft and this year's trade period. The deficit is applied before the trade period.

Unless you mean that you could not trade it during live trading later in the draft?

Live trade, correct. It was locked straight away and we could not trade it during the draft.

I believe we would be able to trade it this year after the deficit has been applied.

 

[Lore]

Prelim Finals:

 

[Lore]

Since Port's ladder position is now finalised, I can try and apply the deficit to their second round pick.

Port's deficit is 115.9 points, which comes off the second round pick tied to their own ladder position with a resulting value of 426.1 points.

According to my calculations, this should fall back in the order to just after Brisbane's pick, which was originally pick 40 before any deficits were applied, and worth 429 points.

GWS's pick after deficit also falls into the same gap, with a total of 422.8 points.

I think given the discrepancy in total points after the deficit has been applied, Port's pick would slot in ahead of GWS's, but it's also possible that they ought to be in reverse ladder order when this happens, in which case GWS's pick should be ahead of Port's.

Until the AFL republishes the indicative draft order we won't know for sure either way, given that they don't publish a handbook on how these things work, so until then this is the theory I'm basing it on.

 

[giantroo]

Updated draft order

Indicative draft order: Your club's picks as they stand

How is your club's draft hand looking on the eve of the Trade and Free Agency periods?

www.afl.com.au

 

[Lore]

Updated draft order

Indicative draft order: Your club's picks as they stand

How is your club's draft hand looking on the eve of the Trade and Free Agency periods?

www.afl.com.au

Same as mine then

 

[giantroo]

Same as mine then

Yep, so it's based on points.

39	Port Adelaide*
40	GWS*

*Greater Western Sydney's second pick was adjusted due to a 254.2 deficit from 2019
*Port Adelaide's second pick was adjusted due to a 115.9 deficit from 2019

 

[Lore]

Yep, so it's based on points.

39	Port Adelaide*
40	GWS*

*Greater Western Sydney's second pick was adjusted due to a 254.2 deficit from 2019
*Port Adelaide's second pick was adjusted due to a 115.9 deficit from 2019

I had myself absolutely convinced it wouldn’t be, since if it’s more points than the next pick the excess are held over in surplus and if anyone matches a bid placed with one of those picks they’d only be paying the normal price to match it.

All else being equal there would either be a specific order in which the deficits are applied (such as the order that they were accrued last year), with one applied, order shuffled, next one applied etc. which would result in gws ahead of port, or they’re all applied together and then placed in reverse ladder order when they land at the same spot. Neither of which seems to have occurred

 

[Lore]

Congratulations to Richmond, 2020 Premiers!

Here is the draft order as it stands after the Grand Final:


Free agency starts Friday, and the trade period opens on the following Wednesday.

I'll do the best I can to keep it up to date through that period, but as always I am one person so please be patient

 

[Bay Pie]

Congratulations to Richmond, 2020 Premiers!

Here is the draft order as it stands after the Grand Final:
View attachment 994474

Free agency starts Friday, and the trade period opens on the following Wednesday.

I'll do the best I can to keep it up to date through that period, but as always I am one person so please be patient

Great effort Lore. Thanks for keeping this up to date throughout. It's the best resource on BF.

You get a rest for a week or so then back to it with Trade week and the 2021 instalment. I'm expecting another high volume of future picks trading hands due to so many academy players this year. Hopefully the AFL can be a little clearer this year, with what actual future pick is traded when teams have multiple picks in the same round.