AFL 2020 - AFL Finals Preliminary Finals (no aftertiming allowed)

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benji21

All Australian
Apr 2, 2016
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Haven't seen much to change my mind that the Port v Geelong game has the stronger form.

Port should be favourites but not a huge amount of value, would have it as 1.8 v 2
Port SU but just.

Next game I would almost have it evens. Early odds have Geelong 2.10 which is probably value. Geelong have a very good record at the Gabba this year so I don't think It'll scare them at all. Think Geelongs ball movement will be hard for Brissy to contain as that's been a weakness of the Brisbane this year. Will be keen to see the line as im thinking about a 120 -130 total is about right. Geelong SU and potentially overs.
 

GROTTO

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Jul 5, 2013
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¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Week 3 Finals

Which degenerate punter will win the Inaugural 2020 AFL Punter of the Year on Bigfooty.

We are down to 4, loser eliminated. Winner onto the grand final.



OhhDeledio Port v Tigers iluvparis

NonPhixion Lions vs Cats Ohh Ok



The earlier the better, but lets say ~24 hours before the game (in case you campaigners have the same bets, I have to tell the other to change it and get back to me before game time, so its to give them time to get it in!!!!)

If both bets win, the highest payout goes through.

If both bets lose, the team your assigned goes through.

Good luck ladies.
 

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NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
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NonPhixion do you know where the stats are for most disposals in the 2020 Finals Series? Thanks.
They have updated it on the AFL finals extra markets. Houli & Duncan leading on 49. Need both Geelong & Richmond to lose if our boy Lyons is a shot to win
 

GROTTO

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Its raining men, hallelujah.

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From my hazy memory of the 2020 season, Port seemed to do ok in this shitlike conditions, while the Tigers did struggle a bit.

Still a solid 5 days to go.
 

pendlebury_10

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You think that Richmond prefers the wet, with the chaos ball and inside 50 entries?

True, Port's speed is an asset in dry conditions.
Port are also the number one clearance team, up against Richmond who are ranked 18th. If it's wet I think there's a real chance Port's big mids bully Richmond and play the game in their front half.
 

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mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
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Sydney almost rolled them earlier this year in the wet. They scored just 3 goals in that game too.
Yeah but how much importance do you attribute to one game vs a bottom 4 team in a very low scoring game with multiple players out?

FYI - they scored 4 goals 10.

Normally I expect Port to do quite well in these conditions as well.

 

benji21

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Hard to compare the 2 using just win/loss. Both teams have been good this year, and when playing in the wet they are either playing teams that are well below them, or teams that don't like the wet (Saints, Dogs, Pies, WC).

Tigers have liked the wet due to high turnover rate which they thrive off, Port like it due to the increase in stoppages. Will come down to ports ability to keep the turnovers down and the stoppages up.
 

Jammer

Team Captain
Jun 26, 2007
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l like Port in this spot .... my concern with the tigers is I think their backline is off the boil... above average... but no longer elite
Including out on fulls they have given up in the in early 20s shots on goal
In both finals.
An undermanned saints outfit had plenty of looks at goal.
They also gave up 28 shots on goal last time They played Port.
Like the match up of the Ports big bodied mids.

I think they are good chance of giving up 20 plus shots to Port which will make them very hard to beat
 

LIONS15v

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Oct 12, 2020
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Brisbane Lions
Port and Brisbane for me, especially with the home ground advantage.

It is port's year, they are experienced and have the heartbreak of being eliminated/not making finals in recent years to drive them.

Brissy is close to unbeatable at the gabba, have fixed their goal kicking and have 2019 to motivate them. Although, I'm slightly nervous.. Geelong's gotta break their prelim hoodoo at some point.

Those factors pushed me over the fence because any of these teams with the players they have and good execution of their gameplan can beat anyone of the others.
 
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The_Steadier

Norm Smith Medallist
May 6, 2009
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Port and Brisbane for me, especially with the home ground advantage.

It is port's year, they are experienced and have the heartbreak of being eliminated/not making finals in recent years to drive them.

Brissy is close to unbeatable at the gabba, have fixed their goal kicking and have 2019 to motivate them. Although, I'm slightly nervous.. Geelong's gotta break their prelim hoodoo at some point.

Those factors pushed me over the fence because any of these teams with the players they have and good execution of their gameplan can beat anyone of the others.
My money is now on anybody bar richmond winning the flag, although I'll get the biggest win I can possibly get if the tigs are to make the GF, but lose it to either cats or lions.

I just today adjusted my hedges to payout less if the tigers make the GF (win or lose), but far more if bris (or cats) and port get up this week.

It's truly anybody's flag, and definitely not writing the tigers off- but I think they are the 4th most likely team to win this week, not the cats as the bookies currently have.

I'm tipping a port bris GF, but if there is to be an upset this week I think it will be the cats getting up.
 

dontlimitme

Team Captain
May 20, 2016
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My money is now on anybody bar richmond winning the flag, although I'll get the biggest win I can possibly get if the tigs are to make the GF, but lose it to either cats or lions.

I just today adjusted my hedges to payout less if the tigers make the GF (win or lose), but far more if bris (or cats) and port get up this week.

It's truly anybody's flag, and definitely not writing the tigers off- but I think they are the 4th most likely team to win this week, not the cats as the bookies currently have.

I'm tipping a port bris GF, but if there is to be an upset this week I think it will be the cats getting up.
have you hedged your hedges tho?
 

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