AFL 2020 - AFL Finals Preliminary Finals (no aftertiming allowed)

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LIONS15v

Debutant
Oct 12, 2020
121
98
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Tight close game, feel justified that the odds were the wrong way around 😉
Fair enough. Tigers proved me wrong and made me eat my words. Well done to those who backed richmond. It was a solid win away at Adelaide oval. Their proven finals experience and ability to turn it up when required cannot be overstated.
That being said, they will still lose against my lions next week. 😏
 

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RU_

.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.
Aug 6, 2010
21,148
13,281
Australia
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
The question is not whether you should hedge, but rather why did you include Geelong in the first place if you were going to go down this path?
Depends how much that $10 means to you.

If it was just for funsies, then you gotta just ride it and cheer for the Cats.

If you've blown all your money and that $10 hail mary was to have enough for petrol to go to work next week, then lay off enough to get your petrol money haha
Just for funsies and I was supposed to put one on for both Lions/Cats but got distracted and forgot. Will ride it and cheer on both teams, can’t lose now - we win and we make the granny and we lose and I make some money!
 

Ohh Ok

All Australian
Jul 31, 2018
862
1,031
AFL Club
Adelaide
3u First Half highest scoring half $2.02 (lads)
2.5u Brisbane 1-39 $2.10 (SB)
2u Cameron 2+ goals $2.20 (PB)
1u Cameron 3+ goals $6 (PB)
0.5u Cameron 4+ goals $14 (PB)

Have to keep backing the trend for first halves at the Gabba. Think it’s at something like 70% strike rate this season. Bookies getting it wrong.

Cameron has had some success vs Geelong in the past with a few 5 goals games. PointsBet offering some juice in their prices compared to the other bookies. If Papley (2.5), Ebert (2.2), Motlop (3.0) in recent weeks are anything to go by, I give this bloke a massive chance.
 

GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
46,824
54,789
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Just for funsies and I was supposed to put one on for both Lions/Cats but got distracted and forgot. Will ride it and cheer on both teams, can’t lose now - we win and we make the granny and we lose and I make some money!
All good. :thumbsu:
 

Ohh Ok

All Australian
Jul 31, 2018
862
1,031
AFL Club
Adelaide
3u Guthrie under 22.5 $1.88 (PB)

Career best year, Line set as low as 20.5. Line probably a bit skewed due to players being rested at different point of the season and him seeing an increase in mid time as a result. Brisbane a tough team to rack solid numbers up. Big game which means a few of the other players should see more mid time. I sense he may be required to do a slightly more defensive role tonight which also sees a decrease in output.
 

GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
46,824
54,789
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
3u First Half highest scoring half $2.02 (lads)
2.5u Brisbane 1-39 $2.10 (SB)
2u Cameron 2+ goals $2.20 (PB)
1u Cameron 3+ goals $6 (PB)
0.5u Cameron 4+ goals $14 (PB)

Have to keep backing the trend for first halves at the Gabba. Think it’s at something like 70% strike rate this season. Bookies getting it wrong.

Cameron has had some success vs Geelong in the past with a few 5 goals games. PointsBet offering some juice in their prices compared to the other bookies. If Papley (2.5), Ebert (2.2), Motlop (3.0) in recent weeks are anything to go by, I give this bloke a massive chance.
Im a little surprised by the lack of discussion around CC tonight. Only managed 5.1 v Cats in the last prelim against them. Kicked 11 goals in his past 3 games v Cats. Not to mention your stat which I did know, is the Cats perceived weakness in curtailing small forwards.

Small scabby thieving forwards like Rayner is good for 2+ and 3+ tonight.

Forget, trains and boats.

Its time for a new mode of transportation. The Cameron's to get on their motorbikes tonight.





 

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Robo87

Club Legend
Aug 3, 2014
1,468
1,437
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Haven’t been in this board for a while, how’s the units and all that work again?
Units shows your confidence and size on the bet you place. 1u is a standard bet and is usually around 1% of your bankroll for betting I think. Therefore if someone places 3u on 'Santa getting me a car for Christmas' and 0.3u on Hawkins kicking straight for 3g they have 10x more confidence in the Santa bet coming off. 😉
 
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maskmcgee

Premiership Player
Feb 25, 2017
3,137
3,144
The Windy Apple
AFL Club
Essendon
Fair enough. Tigers proved me wrong and made me eat my words. Well done to those who backed richmond. It was a solid win away at Adelaide oval. Their proven finals experience and ability to turn it up when required cannot be overstated.
That being said, they will still lose against my lions next week. 😏
There's the second jinx, Geelong 100% certainty now.
 

Red Dog Styles

Club Legend
Feb 13, 2017
1,142
704
Ferntree Gully
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Units shows your confidence and size on the bet you place. 1u is a standard bet and is usually around 1% of your bankroll for betting I think. Therefore if someone places 3u on 'Santa getting me a car for Christmas' and 0.3u on Hawkins kicking straight for 3g they have 10x more confidence in the Santa bet coming off.
Im glad you mentioned Santa. I knew he was real. My older brother is a liar.
What is also real is Geelongs massive chance of winning and Hawkins kicking at least 2 goals.
Sportsbet 3.12 boosted

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

mouncey2franklin

Premiership Player
Jun 16, 2018
4,581
6,564
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Haven’t been in this board for a while, how’s the units and all that work again?
Suppose you are willing to gamble (and potentially lose) up to $1000 per football season. This is your starting bankroll.

Then you keep betting 1-2 units i.e. $10-20 per match on things like Keidien Coleman to kick four goals, the prelim final to be a draw, this kind of thing.

By the end of the season you should be down about 200 units i.e. $2,000.

However, those occasional big wins, like the Rich-Coll draw, the Ess-GC draw, the Newnes goal after the siren to bring home your multi, etc.

These occasional big wins make it all worthwhile, the thrill of those final moments is hard to match, it's quite a rush, and makes the football something to look forward to.

Especially in a bizarre year where you find yourself stranded in a foreign land with nothing to do but drink, gamble, and engage in certain other unwholesome activities.

And that's how we gamble :thumbsu:
 

benji21

All Australian
Apr 2, 2016
815
501
Hong Kong
AFL Club
Fremantle
Can go wrong pretty quick but having a little on Danger U19.5 Disposals at 2.10.. He's 9/19 this year so the odds are about right with that. However he's 6/8 unders when he has 2 or more shots at goal. Will play forward this week and got 19 touches last week in a training drill of a game (Geel had 356 disposals as a team). Would have it priced at 1.80

Also looking at Brisbane over 8.5 behinds at 1.75 has hit almost every game at the Gabba that they have played.
 

mouncey2franklin

Premiership Player
Jun 16, 2018
4,581
6,564
AFL Club
North Melbourne
AFL.com reporting that Gardiner hurt his knee and may be a late out pending fitness test.

Does this make Stanley and Dangerfield more tempting goalscorer bets?
 

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