AFL 2020 - AFL Finals Preliminary Finals (no aftertiming allowed)

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benji21 said:
Can go wrong pretty quick but having a little on Danger U19.5 Disposals at 2.10.. He's 9/19 this year so the odds are about right with that. However he's 6/8 unders when he has 2 or more shots at goal. Will play forward this week and got 19 touches last week in a training drill of a game (Geel had 356 disposals as a team). Would have it priced at 1.80

Also looking at Brisbane over 8.5 behinds at 1.75 has hit almost every game at the Gabba that they have played.
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i will play devils advocate here but i like Danger to go over along with other Cats players. Geelong are #2 this year for Avg disp per game. They are #1 for Avg disp per game at the Gabba this year and will want to implement keepings off game tonight against Brisbane, gameplan will be to take the speed out of it, chip the ball around, switches and try and get good isolated match-ups forward. I like Geelong to win H2H so naturally i think they can establish the game on their terms.
 
NonPhixion said:
i will play devils advocate here but i like Danger to go over along with other Cats players. Geelong are #2 this year for Avg disp per game. They are #1 for Avg disp per game at the Gabba this year and will want to implement keepings off game tonight against Brisbane, gameplan will be to take the speed out of it, chip the ball around, switches and try and get good isolated match-ups forward. I like Geelong to win H2H so naturally i think they can establish the game on their terms.
Click to expand...

I like Geelong to win as well and obviously wouldn't be surprised to see danger go over, just going off the stats and what I think might be an incorrect price. I hope you are right and they chip it around a bit, as if danger is forward he might not see as much of it. If he goes in the mids then I'm in trouble.
 
NonPhixion said:
i will play devils advocate here but i like Danger to go over along with other Cats players. Geelong are #2 this year for Avg disp per game. They are #1 for Avg disp per game at the Gabba this year and will want to implement keepings off game tonight against Brisbane, gameplan will be to take the speed out of it, chip the ball around, switches and try and get good isolated match-ups forward. I like Geelong to win H2H so naturally i think they can establish the game on their terms.
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Cats no. 1 in average disposals conceded this season. Lions are no. 3.

Not much difference.
It will probably be a low disposal game tonight, so it would be wise to tread extra lightly for those that are betting on player disposals..
 

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mouncey2franklin said:
AFL.com reporting that Gardiner hurt his knee and may be a late out pending fitness test.

Does this make Stanley and Dangerfield more tempting goalscorer bets?
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NonPhixion said:
Gardner confirmed out.
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Pigs arse a late out.

I bet they knew this for a while. Tactically it makes sense of course, why expose your hand early.
 
mouncey2franklin said:
AFL.com reporting that Gardiner hurt his knee and may be a late out pending fitness test.

Does this make Stanley and Dangerfield more tempting goalscorer bets?
Click to expand...

I will say with Danger, the more pressure and intensity the game is at, the more likely he will choke at kicking for goal.

IIRC had one of the worst set shots for goal accuracy only earlier this year.

Those goals he kicked last week was because the Collingwood Cream Pies rocked up at the GABBA. He has done the same for the Crows over the years too choking at simple set shots.

But he is a great shot for goal when there is no pressure at all. Like the goal he kicked from outside 50m earlier this year when the ump called play on when he took too much time to kick the ball.
 

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Hmmm Gardner would have been a good matchup for Danger when he’s forward. Think Danger can do some damage up forward now.
on 2+, 3+, 4+
 
Chris Scott just confirmed Danger will start forward
 
I've got a few bets on, the main ones centre on Charlie Cameron. I like him for 3+, 4+ and 5+.

Also like Tuohy $2.50 AGS, 3/3 from last three matches.

Also like the total points unders, can see Geelong doing everything in their power to play keepings off, 120 seems generous.
 
1u Stanley 2g+ @4.25 tab.
1u Zorko ags @2.40 lads
1.5u sgm1 -Danger 2g+, hawkins ags, selwood 15+ @5.15 sb powered
1u sgm2 -Danger 3g+, hawkins ags, selwood 15+ @9 sb
1.5u sgm3 -cameron 2g+, hawkins ags, selwood 15+ @3.75 sb powered
0.5u sgm - zorko, mcinerney, miers, ablett ags @30.36 lads (the same multi is only ~$16 on sb)
 
NonPhixion said:
Chris Scott just confirmed Danger will start forward
Click to expand...
**** it, don't trust the **** in front of goals, but I just got on Danger 4+ @ 26.
 
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