AFL 2020 - AFL Finals Week One (no aftertiming allowed)

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The_Steadier

Norm Smith Medallist
May 6, 2009
7,944
17,101
AFL Club
St Kilda
Scorecard reads 0 wins, 3 losses- but 2 bonus bets back so not too much damage done.

Hoping the friday ones snag a couple of wins now
Much better last night, 2 outright wins and 1 loss, no bonus bet back.

I also took up ladbrokes same 3 leg bonus back promo (only 1 per game allowed with them though), lost on the port game with a bonus bets ba and outright win on lions game.

So all up so far this weekend with this method off 8x 3 leg multis:

3 outright wins, 5 losses (3 of the losses got bonus bets back).

I've already succeeded in turning the 3 bonus bets into getting my actual money back via backing 3 non SGM $2 winners with them.

Means i'm up by 1u so far.

Not as good as last week where i was up by 3u after 8x 3leg multis, but still decent.

Today using the ladbrokes promo going with:

Libba 15
Libba 20
Hanners 15 @2.20

and
crisp 15
Crisp 20
Total game points over 89.5 @ 2.06
 

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Robo87

Club Legend
Aug 3, 2014
1,468
1,437
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Martin AGS, Riewoldt AGS & Cameron AGS $2.56 NEDS.
Like this.
Cameron is the lions leading gs and no one matches him for his leg speed (he can easily get one out the back) + Riewoldt and dusty should get enough ball coming inside 50 for hopefully 1 each. So imo -the worse case scenario 2/3 get up for bonus bets.
tailing 2u lads.
well, read that correctly. just dusty played hf and never got inside 50 for a mark.

Thoughts on Rioli for a goal(s) ?? im not sold on him yet, but he Is listed at fwd pocket. Could do a motlop like last night. hes only got 9g in 2020 tho. (81%TOG)

Rioli ags @2.15 tab
Rioli 2g+ @5.75 lads
Rioli 3g+@17 SB
well he was due!
 
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Ohh Ok

All Australian
Jul 31, 2018
862
1,031
AFL Club
Adelaide
Playing a couple middles on the first game:

5u Smith 20+ disposals $1.80 (lads)
5u Smith Under 21.5 @ $1.80 (PointsBet/365)

Risking 1 unit to win 8. Lands on 20 or 21 I win.

5u Hunter over 23.5 disposals $1.85 (365)
5u Hunter Under 25.5 disposals $1.80 (PointsBet)

Risking 1 unit to win 8.25. Lands on 24 or 25 I win.
 

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The_Steadier

Norm Smith Medallist
May 6, 2009
7,944
17,101
AFL Club
St Kilda
I think i just managed to smash the odds in on this single handedly, because dogs SF knockout is now into 2.40 (was 2.75), and saints h2h was at 2.40 (now 2.25) - but i just realised i could hedge the following for what I deem are the minimal risks of the dogs making it to a prelim and neale not winning the brownlow:

0.5units on the saints h2h and neale brownlow @ 2.97 boosted SB

0.5units on dogs eliminated at SF stage @ 2.75

With each (mostly) hedging the other one, so long as neale wins the brownlow and the dogs lose this week or next week- guaranteed payout at either 1.93 if the saints win today, or 1.79 if the dogs win.

(Dunno what happens with h2h bets if theres a draw and extra time? Im probably screwed if its a draw at fulltime?)
 

benji21

All Australian
Apr 2, 2016
815
501
Hong Kong
AFL Club
Fremantle
Over 123.5 and Saints. 50/50 match in my eyes so saints a little value. Total points should be 120 - 135 ish.
Rolling into the next game, WC should win this. Forecast is 30km SW so will be watching the toss, if pies kick with the wind ill be all over them for the first quarter. Wind could make it hard to for both team to play the kick kick game so might have a little on the overs.
 

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