AFL 2020 - AFL Finals Week One (no aftertiming allowed)

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The_Steadier

Norm Smith Medallist
May 6, 2009
7,668
16,119
AFL Club
St Kilda

It used to be, wait for it... $2. For Biden to win the poll.
It would not surprise me if Biden has the worst debate performance in history, it wouldn't matter, he'd be able to win that poll even if he didn't show up for the debate.
You're forgetting the very distinct possibility of an army of trumptards hijacking the poll or other such nonsense
 

mouncey2franklin

Premiership Player
Jun 16, 2018
4,355
6,193
AFL Club
North Melbourne

It used to be, wait for it... $2. For Biden to win the poll.
It would not surprise me if Biden has the worst debate performance in history, it wouldn't matter, he'd be able to win that poll even if he didn't show up for the debate.
It is 1.50 now, when did you get on for $2?

You're forgetting the very distinct possibility of an army of trumptards hijacking the poll or other such nonsense
CNN can rig their own poll a lot easier than a bunch of Trumplovers can.
 

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Robo87

Club Legend
Aug 3, 2014
1,457
1,436
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Zorko AGS $2.50 TAB is the other one I like. He gets scoring opportunities literally every game he plays, also kicked 0.3 last year against Richmond in the QF I'll back him to kick at least one this time.
dont mind that either.
but there needs to be a market for zorko ABS? :sweatsmile: hes kicked a behind in 13/15 games.
 

FadingTheFave

Debutant
Jun 25, 2016
56
95
AFL Club
St Kilda
Martin is still $4.50 TAB for 2+ just got on it
Late to the party been crunched into $2.60. Good find!

im gonna smash caddy for goals then when the teams come out

tab have him at 2.75 to kick 1 🤑 i dont have a tab account though
Like this one! Heat map was 87% FWD half against Crows can't see this changing with Lynch out. Also kicked 2 against the Lions in the QF last year.

2u - Tigers H2H / Caddy ATG @4.20 (TAB)
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,975
1,369
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Both WB and StK have played the following teams in the latter end of the season. To me it indicates that StK has been tailing off and WB gaining momentum towards the end of the season.

StK lose to Bris by 2 vs WB losing by 24 - Bris 20 scoring shots to 13
StK lost to WC by 15 vs WB winning by 2
StK beat Hawks by 14 vs WB winning by 36
StK lost to Melb by 3 vs WB winning by 28
StK lost to Cats by 57 WB loses by 11

Saints scoring has also dried up late with Butler tailing off, King not impacting and Membrey not kicking bags. WB has from memory has the highest number of points scored since Naughton returned.

In short these teams are moving in opposite directions.
 

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iluvparis

Hall of Famer
Apr 1, 2005
35,963
28,634
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Both WB and StK have played the following teams in the latter end of the season. To me it indicates that StK has been tailing off and WB gaining momentum towards the end of the season.

StK lose to Bris by 2 vs WB losing by 24 - Bris 20 scoring shots to 13
StK lost to WC by 15 vs WB winning by 2
StK beat Hawks by 14 vs WB winning by 36
StK lost to Melb by 3 vs WB winning by 28
StK lost to Cats by 57 WB loses by 11

Saints scoring has also dried up late with Butler tailing off, King not impacting and Membrey not kicking bags. WB has from memory has the highest number of points scored since Naughton returned.

In short these teams are moving in opposite directions.
Squiggle would probably say the same

round 13

1601426437107.png


Now

1601426469280.png
 

The_Steadier

Norm Smith Medallist
May 6, 2009
7,668
16,119
AFL Club
St Kilda
Sill at this stage I'll be on St Kilda, but that is dependant on Zac Jones being fit.
He's been pretty easily tagged out of games in the 2nd half of the season, even if he does play I'm not expecting him to have much impact.

Gresham out and jones being ineffective has been a big factor in our decline in the last half of the season.
You're right that jones is important to us- but even if he plays it's far from certain to help us much- teams have figured out that we struggle when he gets close attention.
 

LukeParkerno1

Premium Platinum
Sep 23, 2005
117,470
46,196
Sydney
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Sydney Swans
He's been pretty easily tagged out of games in the 2nd half of the season, even if he does play I'm not expecting him to have much impact.

Gresham out and jones being ineffective has been a big factor in our decline in the last half of the season.
You're right that jones is important to us- but even if he plays it's far from certain to help us much- teams have figured out that we struggle when he gets close attention.
I'd feel a lot more at ease if he was playing though. That's the one area the Dogs are on top. Thankfully your rucks can belt them senseless as they play as extra mids.
 

The_Steadier

Norm Smith Medallist
May 6, 2009
7,668
16,119
AFL Club
St Kilda
So after last round going 4 wins, 4 losses (3 of those got bonus bets back), i'm rolling out my little method again thanks to the thurs/fri night sportsbet 3 leg bonus bet promo.


Thurs:

Hawkins AGS
Hawkins 2+
Stewart 15+ @ $2 boosted


Dixon AGS
Dixon 2+
Menegola 15+ @ $2


Menegola 15+
Menegola 20+
Duncan 15+ @ $2 boosted




Fri:

Riewoldt AGS
Riewoldt 2+
Rich 15+ @ $2 boosted


Lyons 15+
Lyons 20+
McCluggage 15+ @ $2


Dusty AGS
Dusty 2+
Prestia 15+ @ $2.50


The gist is that it improves the odds on someone getting 20+ possies or 2+ goals, while also having a fallback of getting a bonus bet back if they only get 15-19 possies or just 1 goal (assuming the 3rd leg also gets up).


Naturally the possible legs and returns are limited by the $2 min odds and $50 max bonus bet back of the promo offer.

Also if i get bonus bets back I need to then use those bonus bets on winning bets of at least 2-1 odds in order to truly get my money back (because you don't get to keep the original stake when using bonus bets, only the winnings)

But I was able to do that easy enough last week with the 3 bonus bets I got back.


If my strike rate from last week holds up, i'm hoping for around 3 wins, 3 losses (2 of those losses getting a bonus bet back)

Not high stakes by any stretch, but I find it entertaining.
 

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