AFL 2020 - AFL Finals week two (no aftertiming allowed)

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benji21

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Apr 2, 2016
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Tough games this week.

Tigers should win however they have been a bit shaky. Wondering if their form looks better than it is coming into finals. Win against a Geelong who's been out of sorts. Wins against Freo and WC both who were off 4 day breaks and had to travel from Perth and win against Adelaide. 1.30 seems to short so will either be on Saints or its a No bet.

Pies got a bit lucky on a few decisions and could of lost last night. Geelong should kick into gear here, will keep an eye on the weather as it looks like it could rain a little which will suit Geelong. Geelong SU
 

Robo87

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Aug 3, 2014
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Richmond at the line, will bounce back hard and win easy
agree.
& i dont know the official stats but i think i heard somewhere that in semi finals the higher placed teams have a much higher % win record over teams that finished 5-8th.
If anyone knows that actual stat on semi finals, it would be interesting to know.
 

benji21

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Apr 2, 2016
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agree.
& i dont know the official stats but i think i heard somewhere that in semi finals the higher placed teams have a much higher % win record over teams that finished 5-8th.
If anyone knows that actual stat on semi finals, it would be interesting to know.
It's a pretty big stat yes. Don't get me wrong I think tigers should win
Just think 1.3 is very short. Would have them closer to 1.45 to 1.55.
 

iluvparis

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Apr 1, 2005
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agree.
& i dont know the official stats but i think i heard somewhere that in semi finals the higher placed teams have a much higher % win record over teams that finished 5-8th.
If anyone knows that actual stat on semi finals, it would be interesting to know.
Yes - pre the bye coming in they were something ludicrous like 18 from 20
 

mookieb

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Oct 4, 2006
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Tough games this week.

Tigers should win however they have been a bit shaky. Wondering if their form looks better than it is coming into finals. Win against a Geelong who's been out of sorts. Wins against Freo and WC both who were off 4 day breaks and had to travel from Perth and win against Adelaide. 1.30 seems to short so will either be on Saints or its a No bet.
Saints absolutely scraped through vs WB despite getting smashed in inside 50's (51 to 35). They had less scoring shots, got gifted a goal due to the stupid ruck rule and dominated a lot of the match ups. Ryder was near BOG (now out), StK backline smashed them (Long and Carlisle now out) and their forward line which had been very ordinary suddenly had contested marks everywhere (Ryder, Membrey, King). To top it off Geary was on fire. So essentially everything worked for them and they still could have lost if WB took their chances in the last quarter.

I though Rich weren't too bad except for gifting goals through 50's. Lynch in for Chol will transform their forward line especially so with Carlisle out.

I'd expect that Rich on the rebound will do this easily, but I am salty AF after WB losing so that could be clouding my judgement.
 

benji21

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Saints absolutely scraped through vs WB despite getting smashed in inside 50's (51 to 35). They had less scoring shots, got gifted a goal due to the stupid ruck rule and dominated a lot of the match ups. Ryder was near BOG (now out), StK backline smashed them (Long and Carlisle now out) and their forward line which had been very ordinary suddenly had contested marks everywhere (Ryder, Membrey, King). To top it off Geary was on fire. So essentially everything worked for them and they still could have lost if WB took their chances in the last quarter.

I though Rich weren't too bad except for gifting goals through 50's. Lynch in for Chol will transform their forward line especially so with Carlisle out.

I'd expect that Rich on the rebound will do this easily, but I am salty AF after WB losing so that could be clouding my judgement.
Yeah Richmond should win, but I had Brisbane rated quite low of the 4 and haven't seen tigers hit top gear in the past few months. would be the main reason I'm avoiding 1.3, Carlisle and Ryder out hurts, especially Carlisle I think.

Obviously opinions are 1.3 is value.
 

The_Steadier

Norm Smith Medallist
May 6, 2009
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I would expect Richmond to utterly destroy St Kilda who are utter pretenders.
mmmmm salty.
Not sure what we're pretending to be other than a team that finished 6th and won a knockout final... but I'll leave that to others to decide.

I'm not giving our boys much chance due to the nature of our outs- carlisle and ryder out are critical changes we need to make to our structure.

We'd be a decent underdog bet without those outs, but you'd be throwing your money away on us with ryder, carlisle and gresham missing unfortunately.

Gotta be in it to win it though, and 12 teams aren't in it.
 

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iluvparis

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mmmmm salty.
Not sure what we're pretending to be other than a team that finished 6th and won a knockout final... but I'll leave that to others to decide.

I'm not giving our boys much chance due to the nature of our outs- carlisle and ryder out are critical changes we need to make to our structure.

We'd be a decent underdog bet without those outs, but you'd be throwing your money away on us with ryder, carlisle and gresham missing unfortunately.

Gotta be in it to win it though, and 12 teams aren't in it.
??? On what basis would I be salty? I backed the Saints last week?
 

The_Steadier

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??? On what basis would I be salty?
I have no clue why you are seemingly so salty about the saints being one of the last 6 teams remaining.... after finishing the season 6th (1 game and 10% clear of 9th).

The real question is on what basis are the saint 'pretenders'?

They seem to be exactly where they 'deserve' to be at this point in time.

If it were me I'd reserve the 'pretenders' tag for teams that don't actually qualify for finals and only get allowed in after a team is disqualified for drug cheating.... but that's just me.
 

iluvparis

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I have no clue why you are seemingly so salty about the saints being one of the last 6 teams remaining.... after finishing the season 6th (1 game and 10% clear of 9th).

The real question is on what basis are the saint 'pretenders'?

They seem to be exactly where they 'deserve' to be at this point in time.

If it were me I'd reserve the 'pretenders' tag for teams that don't actually qualify for finals and only get allowed in after a team is disqualified for drug cheating.... but that's just me.
Why I am salty - I am just pointing out what most people would expect - the Tigers, the best team in the league for the last 3-4 years would be expected to beat the also ran Saints.
 

The_Steadier

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May 6, 2009
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Why I am salty - I am just pointing out what most people would expect - the Tigers, the best team in the league for the last 3-4 years would be expected to beat the also ran Saints.
I agree that we are little chance of beating the tigers but not sure how that translates to being 'pretenders'.

Whatevs.

In betting news- I highly recommend having a crack marshall getting 15+ or 20+ possies against nankervis rucking solo.

Marshall is an enduro beast and should play 90% TOG, almost exclusively on the ball.

(He's paying $2 for 15+ and $4.50 for 20+)

Also- SB have priced steele in the 15+ market for the first time in forever.
Has only not done it once this year.
 
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iluvparis

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Apr 1, 2005
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I agree that we are little chance of beating the tigers but not sure how that translates to being 'pretenders'.

Whatevs.

In betting news- I highly recommend having a crack marshall getting 15+ or 20+ possies against nankervis rucking solo.

Marshall is an enduro beast and should play 90% TOG, almost exclusively on the ball.

(He's paying $2 for 15+ and $4.50 for 20+)
Well if there is little chance of you beating the Tigers doesn't that make you pretenders for the flag? Logic checks out to me.
 

LukeParkerno1

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Sep 23, 2005
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I agree that we are little chance of beating the tigers but not sure how that translates to being 'pretenders'.

Whatevs.

In betting news- I highly recommend having a crack marshall getting 15+ or 20+ possies against nankervis rucking solo.

Marshall is an enduro beast and should play 90% TOG, almost exclusively on the ball.

(He's paying $2 for 15+ and $4.50 for 20+)

Also- SB have priced steele in the 15+ market for the first time in forever.
Has only not done it once this year.
There is more than dozen other sides that would love to be in your position. Whatever happens this has been a fantastic season. You made finals, won a final. Whatever happens from now is a bonus. I'm actually all over the saits at the line but I'm waiting for it to hopefully go further out. Richmond don't thrash sides. A 17.5 line is basically a 26-28 point line generally I doubt Richmond win by that much. They probably win but finals are notoriously closer than everyone thinks.

To further your thing on Marshall, all over him to snag a goal.
 

The_Steadier

Norm Smith Medallist
May 6, 2009
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There is more than dozen other sides that would love to be in your position. Whatever happens this has been a fantastic season. You made finals, won a final. Whatever happens from now is a bonus. I'm actually all over the saits at the line but I'm waiting for it to hopefully go further out. Richmond don't thrash sides. A 17.5 line is basically a 26-28 point line generally I doubt Richmond win by that much. They probably win but finals are notoriously closer than everyone thinks.

To further your thing on Marshall, all over him to snag a goal.
We don't really have a 2nd ruckman so I can't see him playing forward much, but he's a hell of a guy so I wouldn't put it past him to snag one regardless.

However when he solo rucked last year he only kicked 8 goals in 21 games.

He went 20+ possies 8 times last year as solo ruck though (obviously with longer games).
That's why I think he's a great shout for 15+ this week
 

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