AFL 2020 - AFL Grand Final (no aftertiming allowed)

[demon_fanatic]

Have a feeling Geelong will win this - they will be even more motivated than Richmond to win, to send Gaza off on a high! It will all be about him and his family and the team will lift for this. 5years trying to make the GF, they will be highly motivated. Other sign is the odds, 2.10 for Geelong. I mean why are Richmond not shorter odds? Is it the Gabba factor. I cant believe Richmond is not 1.40.

Every team lately at 2.10 has been winning. The big boys will come in on Friday/ Saturday and hammer Geelongs odds down to 2.00 or maybe even 1.90. This year 2020 has been one of those years, lebron doing it for Kobe, so can see the Cats winning for good old Jiblets.

Having said that - I have gone big on Richmond and unders. But got a feeling it will be Cats that get up in a low scoring slog.

This would have to be the most confusing thing I've ever read on here haha!! You have a feeling Geelong will win but ask why aren't Richmond $1.40 then you say Geelong will win for Ablett and refer the Kobe thing but oh by the way I've gone big on Richmond and unders...whatttttttttt

 

[Mantastic]

I lumped on Geelong at $9 after we lost the QF, just had a feeling. I like Geelong 1-19 @$3.60 as well, so I might put a bit more on.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Can multi w NS too- sign me up $13(boosted) dangermouse.

Where can you multi NS bets? On SB and Lads it seems to be a 'singles only' market.

 

[TryAnHit]

Had a nibble at Bolton to kick 2 goals @ $7 odds with Lads. Think it's good value, he'll play mainly forward as he has been throughout the finals and it could be wet and slippery.

He's as short as $3.70 with bet365.

Wet and slippery and backing 2+ goals is never a good combination

 

[The_Steadier]

Where can you multi NS bets? On SB and Lads it seems to be a 'singles only' market.

See my earlier posts in this thread.
(Choose the separate NS market in AFL futures on SB, not the NS market embedded within all the other SGM etc markets)

You can only multi with 1 GF leg, but it's doable.

 

[LIONS15v]

Tell me joel selwood

14

Joel Selwood

Age

35

Ht

183cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

24.9

5star

K

12.5

5star

HB

12.5

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

5.3

5star

CL

5.7

5star

D

18.3

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

8.6

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

4.0

5star

D

23.4

5star

K

13.2

5star

HB

10.2

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

4.8

5star

CL

5.8

5star

AGS @ $4.5 on SB is not one of the best value bets.

All you need to see is his record in finals..

 

[Fat Nyfe]

Smashing the unders. Thunderstorms forecast

 

[frank99]

Smashing the unders. Thunderstorms forecast

Will be humid for sure doesn't look like they're expecting a lot of rain though. Only 40% chance of up to 2mm

 

[2ballz]

Reckon menegola is great value for norm smith @23

 

[Peter Doherty]

Sports bet have a BYO for a draw then Geelong to win in extra time, pays $51.

Same game multi option allows you to select Geelong as the winner and the winning margin as a draw, pays $97.50.

Stupid question, are these the same bets?

 

[LIONS15v]

Sports bet have a BYO for a draw then Geelong to win in extra time, pays $51.

Same game multi option allows you to select Geelong as the winner and the winning margin as a draw, pays $97.50.

Stupid question, are these the same bets?

yes, sometimes you just get better value doing your own SGM instead of taking the BYO

 

[Jugada]

Probably end up taking Danger, Gaz, Selwood or Tomahawk to win the NS at effective odds of A tick under $4

 

[Peter Doherty]

yes, sometimes you just get better value doing your own SGM instead of taking the BYO

Cheers.

Was only paying $41 for the draw, but pays $114 and $117 (after power thing) each for the draw/Tigers and draw/Cats.

If anyone wants to put a draw bet on, probably best to just do two bets, cover the final result.

 

[NonPhixion]

taken Grimes at an average price of $75.3
Huge value imo. Can see Cats winning the clearances/I50 and Richmond defenders doing work.

 

[GROTTO]

Welcome Ladies, Gentlemen and degenerate gamblers.

I am proud to present the Final bets for the coveted title of Inaugural AFL Punter of the Year 2020.

This is it.

NonPhixion vs iluvparis Grand Final death match.

There is no tomorrow for the loser. Winner takes home the trophy. TBH Im upset you guys posted your bets, as I wanted the title myself by default.

2020 Grand Final (Cats) NonPhixion v ( Tigers) iluvparis
$100/bet
NonPhixion Bets	Max Return	Actual Return
Gary Ablett AGS $2.10 - B365	$210.00​
1st Half U57.5 $1.90 - TopSport	$190.00​
SGM - Danger 15+, Duncan 15+, Richmond H2H, Highest scoring half 2nd. $4.75 - SB.	$475.00​
TOTAL	$875.00​
Iluvparis Bets	Max Return	Actual Return
SGM - Richmond H2H/ Hawkins AGS @ 2.25	$225.00​
SGM - Q3 Line Richmond (-0.5) / Highest Scoring Half - second half @ 1.79 AMENDED TO $3.30	$330.00​
NSM - Martin @ 4.50	$450.00​
TOTAL	$1005.00​

Chism balmainforever

 

[Robo87]

Wet and slippery and backing 2+ goals is never a good combination

its the last AFL game of the year so....


Thinking could use one sb sgm specials to aim for bonus bets as a fallback if bolton 2g+ fails, but better odds if the 2g+ succeeds:
could do something like - dusty 15+, guthrie 15+, bolton 2g+ @8.90 sb boosted
only trouble is there's no more AFL games this year after the GF to use bb on. #firstworldproblems

Have already done the same with 'miers AGS @2.85' on lads. (miers ags is into $2 now tho)

Teams are in. no changes from last week.

 

[Pacman82]

I'm well aware of his recent record, I do my research before posting/taking bets.

He still got to 15+ in each of his last few games, did he not?

And what are the chances selwood, the captain in a GF against a team conceding the 6th most disposals of any team in 2020, has no/little disposals in the first quarter again? Very, very slim I would say. He has value. And he will be giving it his all in a grand final. He's a champion player, never write them off.

I passed on him, he had a sore finger or something goin on last week against us, was strapped up.

 

[lids2richo]

This would have to be the most confusing thing I've ever read on here haha!! You have a feeling Geelong will win but ask why aren't Richmond $1.40 then you say Geelong will win for Ablett and refer the Kobe thing but oh by the way I've gone big on Richmond and unders...whatttttttttt

Sounds like what Ricky Nixon does so he can say "told ya so" after either gets up

 

[jikost]

Forecast keeps getting worse. Was 30% chance of rain, then 40% and now 70% with up to 6mm and a possible thunderstorm. Guaranteed to rain at stages during the afternoon so gonna be slippery and wet either way. Dangerfield Over 2.5 tackles, Guthrie Over 4.5 tackles, Prestia Over 4.5 tackles and Selwood Over 4.5 tackles all look likely in a contested scrap.

 

[LIONS15v]

I passed on him, he had a sore finger or something goin on last week against us, was strapped up.

He will still get 15+ in a GF, you watch. he has saved his best for last. $1.40 is too good, nice multiplier in a SGM

 

[NonPhixion]

Forecast keeps getting worse. Was 30% chance of rain, then 40% and now 70% with up to 6mm and a possible thunderstorm. Guaranteed to rain at stages during the afternoon so gonna be slippery and wet either way. Dangerfield Over 2.5 tackles, Guthrie Over 4.5 tackles, Prestia Over 4.5 tackles and Selwood Over 4.5 tackles all look likely in a contested scrap.

reading my mind

 

[Pacman82]

He will still get 15+ in a GF, you watch. he has saved his best for last. $1.40 is too good, nice multiplier in a SGM

Yeah I just wouldn't want it to be the one that goes down if wet weather reduces his tally by 2 or 3..

 

[GROTTO]

There was a mistake in the 2nd bet by iluvparis the odds are:

SGM - Q3 Line Richmond (-0.5) / Highest Scoring Half - second half @ 1.79 *AMENDED TO $3.30



NonPhixion



*Credit to NonPhixion for accepting the amendment and sportsmanship plus also to iluvparis for accepting whatever decision was to be made here.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Reckon menegola is great value for norm smith @23

Get on him for most Brownlow votes Geelong, I hear he is a shoe in.

Multi it up with Anderson most Brownlow votes North Melbourne.

Ca$h in like all the punting pros on the Brownlow thread, according to their aftertime posts they made $eriou$ bank on Menegola and Anderson

 

[mouncey2franklin]

More seriously though, total match points was set at 117.5 last night, it has only come into 116.5 today, not much movement despite the weather forecast.

If you believe this will be a low-scoring affair, does it make the draw more tempting?

What would you set as fair odds for the draw? Currently 46 on SB, 40 on betfair.

In a crazy season of football in a crazy year of world madness...