Preview 2020 AFL National Draft thread

[King Corey]

Spoiler: Lore's 2020 Draft Order

 

[King Corey]

I'd still hypothetically do it.

Really mate?

I wouldn't do 2 for 6,7,8 let alone a subset of that or later picks.

We are in position to take our 1st or 2nd preference in the draft. As Ohhh Errol has outlined, we can get our hands on picks circa 8+ in any draft.

If our rebound happens quicker than expected we just left our chance at top 2 talent on the table.

Melbourne traded their pick 2 in 2013 with the spread the risk mentality. How'd that turn out for them?

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

They might not be relevant to US, but the fact remains the #1 player in this draft is JUH, it doesn't matter who he was available to.

Essendon won't be getting the 6th best player in this draft, they will get the 8th.

It is completely relevant when comparing the performance of the 2nd best player to the 8th, 9th and 11th best player in a pool over previous years (like you should be doing with the exercise)

Well, then theoretically we will be getting the third best player in the draft then so you would need to compare pick 3’s with 8,9 & 11.

 

[Pykie]

Well, then theoretically we will be getting the third best player in the draft then so you would need to compare pick 3’s with 8,9 & 11.

Correct.

 

[Snake_Baker]

So why are you doing past years analysis of pick 2 vs the 6,7,8 draft picks?

I was responding to GR.

Well, then theoretically we will be getting the third best player in the draft then so you would need to compare pick 3’s with 8,9 & 11.

Question for both of you: Would you swap Anderson for Serong, Flanders & Pickett (8, 9 to 11, 11 to 12) right now?



How about Lukosious for King, Smith & Thomas (6,7,8) or Thomas, Jones & Caldwell (8,9,11)?

 

[Snake_Baker]

Looks like pick 2 has a 70% strike rate over the last ten years while 6,7 & 8 collectively run at about 60%. There has been years when all three of 6,7 & * have been a wipe but if you picked up the equivalent of King, Bailey Smith

3

Bailey Smith

Age

24

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

and TT in one year that would be huge.

My guess would be two of the three picks is the best we will get.

Again, it's about the spread.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Really mate?

I wouldn't do 2 for 6,7,8 let alone a subset of that or later picks.

We are in position to take our 1st or 2nd preference in the draft. As Ohhh Errol has outlined, we can get our hands on picks circa 8+ in any draft.

If our rebound happens quicker than expected we just left our chance at top 2 talent on the table.

Melbourne traded their pick 2 in 2013 with the spread the risk mentality. How'd that turn out for them?

You can have a crack at this too.

Question for both of you: Would you swap Anderson for Serong, Flanders & Pickett (8, 9 to 11, 11 to 12) right now?

View attachment 1013005

How about Lukosious for King, Smith & Thomas (6,7,8) or Thomas, Jones & Caldwell (8,9,11)?

View attachment 1013006

 

[King Corey]

I was responding to GR.



Question for both of you: Would you swap Anderson for Serong, Flanders & Pickett (8, 9 to 11, 11 to 12) right now?

View attachment 1013005

How about Lukosious for King, Smith & Thomas (6,7,8) or Thomas, Jones & Caldwell (8,9,11)?

View attachment 1013006

If those trades were proposed right now I don't think the club holding Anderson or Lukosius would risk it even with those incentives on offer.

 

[Snake_Baker]

If those trades were proposed right now I don't think the club holding Anderson or Lukosius would risk it even with those incentives on offer.

I'm not asking what a club might do, I am asking what you would do.

It's okay to go back several years & pick and choose, but what would folks do based upon very recent drafts, because that is more applicable to this hypothetical scenario.

I wouldn't even question it. I'd have these trades done and in my pocket before they trading partner could blink.

 

[King Corey]

I'm not asking what a club might do, I am asking what you would do.

I wouldn't even question it. I'd have these trades done and in my pocket before they trading partner could blink.

But that hypothetical requires perspective.

If North Melbourne drafted Noah Anderson

15

Noah Anderson

Age

24

Ht

192cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

6.0

4star

M

2.0

2star

T

0.0

1star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

6.0

3star

M

2.0

2star

T

0.0

1star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

6.0

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

0.0

1star

CL

0.0

1star

in 2019 and a club came waving those 3 in our face, no I wouldn't trade our 19yo pick 2 potential Nigel Lappin for that admittedly enticing return.

If you're asking me if the collective group of 3 is better performed than the pick 2 right now then yes, of course.

 

[Pykie]

I was responding to GR.



Question for both of you: Would you swap Anderson for Serong, Flanders & Pickett (8, 9 to 11, 11 to 12) right now?

View attachment 1013005

How about Lukosious for King, Smith & Thomas (6,7,8) or Thomas, Jones & Caldwell (8,9,11)?

View attachment 1013015

It should be Rankine for Thomas, Jones and Caldwell.

I don't think any club would do that at the minute given I'd argue Rankine could be the best forward in the league for the next decade.

 

[Snake_Baker]

It should be Rankine for Thomas, Jones and Caldwell.

I don't think any club would do that at the minute given I'd argue Rankine could be the best forward in the league for the next decade.

Fair enough. Let's see how the cards fall.

 

[Rooboy 96]

Well, then theoretically we will be getting the third best player in the draft then so you would need to compare pick 3’s with 8,9 & 11.

fourth best

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Realistically I don’t see any clubs offering us 3 first round picks for pick 2.

Personally, It would want to be two top 5 picks for pick 2 for me to even consider it.

Don’t like the talk of us being big on Perkins. I don’t see him transitioning into a midfielder and the last thing we need is another half forward.

 

[RHLK]

An extra 8kg of Filthy Cox....be still my beating heart.

 

[Passmore]

Interesting that you raise that.

It just recently dawned on me that many of these "draft watchers" seed the kids based on club gossip and not their own football eye.

I think we need to take the word on amateur draft watchers as a nice little snap shot of the player, but how many would really have seen enough of a kid to form any sort of bankable opinion? You'd need to have watched hours of footage, coupled with an eye to what the kid could potentially develop into.

I'm not sure I'd rate Twomey's personal opinion all that highly, but he would be getting some professional input and mail.

 

[The Filth Wizard]

2019
Pick 2 - Anderson
Pick 6, 7, 8 - McAsey, Young, Serong

2018
Pick 2 - Lukosius
Pick 6, 7, 8 - King, Smith, Thomas

2017
Pick 2 - Brayshaw
Pick 6, 7, 8 - Stephenson, Clarke, Coffield

2016
Pick 2 - Taranto
Pick 6, 7, 8 - Petrevski-Setton, Scrimshaw, Logue


Looks like you'd do that trade every year bar 2016. Other difference with 2020 to these 4 drafts, is that there weren't 2 academy kids to be taken pre 6,7,8.

It all looks good on paper but to be fair on those drafts you have to compare everybody drafted from 2 to 5 against 6,7,8 because those are the choices you would have.

 

[Mr_Nyah]

The academy players are not relevant though.

Of course they are. The drafts being compared aren't removing academy players, so why are they being removed from people's analysis here?

 

[Psicosis]

It all looks good on paper but to be fair on those drafts you have to compare everybody drafted from 2 to 5 against 6,7,8 because those are the choices you would have.

I don’t want to trade 2 TFW, and absolutely not with the scum.

Just an interesting analysis. I feel like more recently, there have been less misses in the top 10 then there were perhaps 10 years ago.

 

[Rooboys Rool]

Have taken a look at likely bids, the picks they will burn and what that means for our picks. Then what that might mean for potential trades. It seems bids often don't come quite as early as anticipated, so have taken that into account:

- JUH, bid on at 3. This will burn Bulldogs' picks 26, 33 & 41 and push 42 out to 48.
- Campbell at 9. Burn Sydney's 31 & 34, and push 43 out to 45.
- Jones at 12. Burn Port's 35, 47 & 57.
- McInness at 21. Burn pick 65 and put Collingwood into a significant deficit for 2021.
- Gulden at 28. Burn Sydney's 45 & 60.
- Downie at 30. Burn pick 45 and push 45 out to 52.

For our picks this would mean:
2 > 2
11 > 14
30 > 34
39 > 39 (but might go out further if any other bids come after our pick 34)
71 > 65 (but would come in even further with other picks burnt on bids and picks not used)

Takeaways:
- Bulldogs, Sydney & Port look pretty well set for bids coming on their academy players.

- Collingwood's picks 14 & 16 will likely become 17 & 19. Seems fairly high risk that a bid will come for McInness that will burn one of these picks. Even if it doesn't, they will have a significant deficit for next year which will hurt their ability to match a bit for Daicos. So it seems a pretty good chance they will want to trade up either pick 16, or both 14 & 16. We look reasonably well placed to trade for one of these picks, but GWS is better placed at this stage I think. If we did want to do that trade we might need to do the mooted Gold Coast trade first to give us enough capital for doing so.

- Hawthorn's pick 24 will push out to about 29 and this will right around the spot a bid for Downie will come. So Hawthorn may look to trade this pick, but not sure if they'd try to trade up ahead of it or back for more points. Might be an opportunity for us to trade up if there is a player we really like that is still available.

- Fremantle also have some players (Western & Walker?) that may get bids in the 30s?, and they may need to trade pick 32. Might be another opportunity for us to take advantage of.

 

[Footywizard]

Realistically I don’t see any clubs offering us 3 first round picks for pick 2.

Personally, It would want to be two top 5 picks for pick 2 for me to even consider it.

Don’t like the talk of us being big on Perkins. I don’t see him transitioning into a midfielder and the last thing we need is another half forward.

Richmond have flankers all over the ground. Perkins is a jet

 

[The Filth Wizard]

I don’t want to trade 2 TFW, and absolutely not with the scum.

Just an interesting analysis. I feel like more recently, there have been less misses in the top 10 then there were perhaps 10 years ago.

I'm with you mate and all cool, was more a blanket reply to anybody trying to simplify it by basing the trade on pick 2 in isolation.

 

[giantroo]

North Melbourne open to offers for pick 2

“It wouldn’t be beyond the realms (of possibility)."

www.sen.com.au

 

[1975]

I don’t want to trade 2 TFW, and absolutely not with the scum.

Just an interesting analysis. I feel like more recently, there have been less misses in the top 10 then there were perhaps 10 years ago.

I’m with you would rather miss out than deal with the filth. I wouldn’t swap a pack of chips for baby Jesus.

 

[Pykie]

North Melbourne open to offers for pick 2

“It wouldn’t be beyond the realms (of possibility)."

www.sen.com.au

“We’ve got a very open mind in regards to what’s best for us and we’re looking at this draft and next year. Our major platform for the next two years is that.


“We are looking at all options and we have been from day one. We did attempt to look at that during this period and tried to get the Western Bulldogs’ first rounder and many things we planned and had a go at, some worked, some don’t.


“We have got an open mind and we’ll discount nothing.”

Would certainly align with #5 + 2021 R1

 

[spurs]

That's a thicker Cox than I was expecting.

Coming from you Swallow wood.