AFL 2020 AFL Round 1

[the_big_sav]

IF things go ahead and potential shortened quarters, will it be a matter of hitting the total game score unders pretty early and hard?

 

[54Dogs]

IF things go ahead and potential shortened quarters, will it be a matter of hitting the total game score unders pretty early and hard?

All markets would be voided and lines adjusted to reflect the new game length

 

[the_big_sav]

All markets would be voided and lines adjusted to reflect the new game length

well yeh but it would still prob take a round or a few games to get the adjustment right

 

[54Dogs]

well yeh but it would still prob take a round or a few games to get the adjustment right

No doubt, but which way will they adjust incorrectly? Does players running the game out better mean more scoring or less? What about 5 day breaks?

 

[NonPhixion]

No doubt, but which way will they adjust incorrectly? Does players running the game out better mean more scoring or less? What about 5 day breaks?

I think if players are running the game out better due to shorter quarters it will reduce scoring further. They will be Better able to stick to their defensive structures
Teams usually leak goals when fatigued

 

[GROTTO]

Would be staggered if we are good enough to get anywhere near the Tiges

Teague will defend his players explaining the need for social distancing as the reason.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Think the AFL will call the season off for the time being. Non essential gatherings of 100 should be discouraged the Prime Minister said this morning.

 

[GROTTO]

Think the AFL will call the season off for the time being. Non essential gatherings of 100 should be discouraged the Prime Minister said this morning.

I will take the Under 100 3u@$1.90 the AFL manages to get 99 people at the Stadium to play an AFL game.

 

[mookieb]

So they are looking at shorter quarters? What for? If playing 20 minutes less somehow helps with CV then suspend the league until you can play full games.

No update on whether the season is going ahead yet. Management of AFL are as expected woeful again.

 

[GROTTO]

Management of AFL are as expected woeful again.

So business as usual at AFL House during a pandemic.

 

[AFLFootyChick]

So they are looking at shorter quarters? What for? If playing 20 minutes less somehow helps with CV then suspend the league until you can play full games.

No update on whether the season is going ahead yet. Management of AFL are as expected woeful again.

The idea behind the reduced minutes is to protect the players from burnout. A five day turnaround between games was talked about, so shorter quarters was supposed to allow the players to back up for the next game, without the need to rest them and use replacement players.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Most of the disp and GK markets i'm interested in aren't released yet but I like:
Nick Larkey
0.5u 3+ $4.33
0.3u 4+ $10
0.2u 5+ $31
0.1u 6+ $101

I'm taking the risk on the 4+ markets that Brown doesn't get up. I'm told he's a 50/50 at this stage.
Without him they went to Larkey a lot in the PS.

 

[Its not the coach]

I see Sportsbet have player disposal and goal markets up that haven't changed even though match time will be 20% less.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Completed ur homework for yas if we go ahead. Basically same game multis any time goal snaggers.
Note, have not looked at weather.

Rich v Carl
Castagna, Lambert, Gibbons $5. Add Rioli if greedy and get $7.75. (I like 2 player multis and rotate em).

Dogs v Coll
Bont, Mihocek, Bailey Dale 3.25. Also like dogs at line or even to win here.

Ess v Freo
Devon Smith, Laverde, Schultz $5.50

Crows v Schwans
Lachlan Murphy, Hayward, Blakey 4 bucks.

GWS v Cats
Zac Langdon, Josh Kelly, Gryan Miers 7.50. reckon this game has value. Can rotate players with Daniel Lloyd or Conigs too.
Langdon for 2 snags is 6.50 by itself which also looks good to me.

GC v Port Pear
Darcy McPherson, Rozee, Duursma 4.33. Not real confident here. Reckon this game could be close tho, wish Sexton was playing. Knows where the sticks are.

Kangs v Saints
Lonie, Thomas, Garner 5 clammys.

Hawks v Bris
Timmy O'Brien, McLuggage and Rayner, chuck in Lachie Neale to get 30 possys multid at 6 bucks. Be betting on Lach to get 35 and even 40 when it pops up cos Alistair Clarkson could not give a rats how many times he gets it, should rack em.

Mighty Eags v Melb
Petrucelli, Waterman and some spud from Dees, surely they get 1. 4 bucks.

The 10.61 multi everyones talkin about. Lachie Neale 30+, Zac Langdon sausage, Gryan Miers sausage, Jack Lonie sausage, Castagna sausage.

I generally only multi 2 together but added extras cos yolo. Lets eat.

Prob best to disregard this with short quarters.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Most of the disp and GK markets i'm interested in aren't released yet but I like:
Nick Larkey
0.5u 3+ $4.33
0.3u 4+ $10
0.2u 5+ $31
0.1u 6+ $101

I'm taking the risk on the 4+ markets that Brown doesn't get up. I'm told he's a 50/50 at this stage.
Without him they went to Larkey a lot in the PS.

Odds went up after 16min quarters announcement but bets weren't immediately voided.
Had to get on chat. Bit dodgy SB.
Anyway reloading at bigger odds.

 

[Ohh Ok]

Have been put off looking too much into markets but just had a bit of a look and how found a couple things I like.

Docherty 20+ disposals $1.75 (BetEasy)
Richmond 1-39 $1.98 (PointsBet)
Brisbane +2.5 $1.90 (PointsBet)

2.5 units on each.

Have accounted for the lesser game time for Docherty. Richmond leak a few easy disposals to opposition defenders. Think he still averages 22-25 a game. Not sure if other lines for him will be adjusted but it’s well over when compared to Sportsbet and PointsBet.

 

[Trucker Tiger]

Castagna to kick 5+. 100-1. Had a nibble.

 

[karaoke]

M Murphy AGS - $4.75 beteasy (12/19 in '19)

 

[balmainforever]

Castagna to kick 5+. 100-1. Had a nibble.

goals or behinds?

 

[JuniorWatch]

SB still has Sexton in their markets. Injured.
0.5u Ben King 2+ $2.50.
0.2u Ben King 3+ $5

 

[Angus Young]

Richmond/GWS

 

[NonPhixion]

M Murphy AGS - $4.75 beteasy (12/19 in '19)

Nice one. Tailed

with little confidence I like Bolton tonight
AGS $2.60
2+ $6.50
3+ $26
& Chestnuts AGS $1.80
B365
Where did the SB markets go ?

 

[mookieb]

Well I doubt we finish the season, but good to get some betting games in, so here's my preview and if i'm wrong i'll blame it on CV and shorter quarters.

I took GWS -5.5 some time ago as clearly my best bet of the first round. Assuming HGA is around a goal that assumes that Geel is around the same in terms of team rankings and have had a similar preseason. Personally I have GWS as far superior and with a better preparation than Geel who have had some injuries. Geel finished 6W 6L last year - I think they morphed into an average team and aren't going to get any better. Anyway since I placed the bet there are no crowds so HGA reduced, Taranto got injured, Duncan and Selwood named (I thought they would miss) and shorter quarters which logically mean that lines should reduce 20%. Shorter quarters will help players with limited prep like Selwood and Duncan. Still like GWS, but things have not fallen my way.

Melb +27.5 has reduced as expected. I expect Melb to be much improved and a team like WC to work into the season. I think they'll be quite competitive and key players for WC like McGovern and Darling will need a run to blow out the cobwebs.

Ade -6.5. I expect both teams to be ordinary. However, Ade do have a good sprinkling of veteran talent and have a good record against Syd because they look better through the middle with M and B Crouch, Sloane, ROB etc. Syd's forward line has looked very average especially if they can lock down on Papley.

I'm on StK at $1.80. Originally thought NM would be good here as StK have to adjust to many new faces, but I think NM struggle here. Ziebell, Polec and Brown (if he plays) have been very limited. Thompson is a huge retirement and Daw looks rusty (looks like he might miss). StK looking like they have gelled well.

Hawks H2H or +3.5. Especially like this bet if you have SB promo's as Bris can start slow and finish over the top. Last 3 games 2 games they have been up by 6+ and the other game they should have been (terrible kicking for goal) before going onto to loss all 3 games comfortably.. Longer prep for Hawks and a fantastic end to the season. MCG is a massive positive and I expect Clarko to have plenty of time to hopefully change their poor record against Bris.

I originally liked Ess -15.5 then they take 20% off game time and the line is now -14.5. Might still jump on. Ess have had a very limited prep from many players, but Freo are missing Pearce, Hamling, Wilson, Hogan, Mundy, Hill and Acres. Aish and Ryan rated as a test. On paper they'll have a terrible team.

Not keen on the rest of the games. I expect GC to be very competitive early, but also wary of Port putting weak teams to the sword. WB and Coll should be a cracker, but i'll wait to see if the hype on WB is real. Carl's forward line is weak with Curnow, McKay and Betts missing. With shorter quarters wary of teams covering bigger lines. Rich 2nd half line probably the way to go if you like Rich.

I think all this drama will be more positive for better teams. Shorter games and season so they should be switched on from the start with no "working into the season". I think they'll handle the pressure better.

Be interesting to see the totals. Higher scores from all out attack or lower totals from greater intensity due to lower game time?

 

[JuniorWatch]

SB just voiding all my bets with this excuse that the 'AFL has changed the rules', even though they did that hours ago and SB adjusted their odds accordingly. Dont like it.

 

[iluvparis]

You can semi promo arb the TAB (x2 winnings if win by 12+) and sportsbet (pay out if your team leads by 6+ at HT) by backing one side on each market and trying to hit the double payout.