AFL 2020 AFL Round 1

[demon_fanatic]

Rich -21.5 still looks good to me even with 16 mins less total game time

 

[mookieb]

You can semi promo arb the TAB (x2 winnings if win by 12+) and sportsbet (pay out if your team leads by 6+ at HT) by backing one side on each market and trying to hit the double payout.

Reckon there are some weaker teams that might start strong then then tail off:

Carlton
Melbourne
WB - this game should be up and down
Hawks - Bris tend to finish strong
GC?

NM and Ess had poor preps and might tire.

Melb and Hawks seem the best options to me.

 

[Dominion]

SB just voiding all my bets with this excuse that the 'AFL has changed the rules', even though they did that hours ago and SB adjusted their odds accordingly. Dont like it.

Does anyone have any idea if TAB are doing this? I've got physical tickets so really hard for me to check. Would suck if they did but I'd live with it, just would like to know if I'm on one way or the other before the game starts lol

 

[the_big_sav]

1u lynch 3+ @ 2.25
0.5u lynch 4+ @ 4.50
0.5u lynch 5+ @ 9.50

0.5u lynch 2 martin 2 castag atg bolton atg @ 9.75
1u lynch martin riewoldt castag atg @ 2.80
0.5u lynch 2 martin 2 castag 2 riewoldt 2 @ 25.50
0.5u lynch 2 riewoldt 2 castag 2 @ 10.75
0.5u lynch 3 riewoldt 2 martin atg castag atg @ 9.00

 

[JuniorWatch]

Word is McKernan out. Still listed in markets though.
Sure he's bad at football but he'll probably be playing deep against an undermanned def.

Laverde
2+ 5.5
3+ 21
4+ 101
SB

Also like Rowan Marshall. Playing more fwd with Ryder in the side and kicked a few snaggeroos in the Marsh.
AGS $2.80
2+ $12
SB

Casboult AGS $2.05
Rioli AGS $1.80
B365

 

[NonPhixion]

All over that Laverde bet ^ nice.
SGM for tonight:
Tigers, Martin AGS, Prestia 20+ & Cripps 20+ $2.40

 

[demon_fanatic]

I watched the nbl finals and I felt the no crowd thing seemed to actually enhance the scores a bit, also think Richmond are at least going to outscore Carlton by a goal a quarter.. side is also hot competition for spots which aids their performance, 1 unit 136.5 over, 2 units Richmond -21.5, on spreads dusty 10 pts,Lynch 18 at pointsbet $10 for every point over, Simpson under 22 disposal spread $10 per disposal, think Docherty back less sweeping up for Simmo

 

[benji21]

I watched the nbl finals and I felt the no crowd thing seemed to actually enhance the scores a bit, also think Richmond are at least going to outscore Carlton by a goal a quarter.. side is also hot competition for spots which aids their performance, 1 unit 136.5 over, 2 units Richmond -21.5, on spreads dusty 10 pts,Lynch 18 at pointsbet $10 for every point over, Simpson under 22 disposal spread $10 per disposal, think Docherty back less sweeping up for Simmo

Been wrestling with this, I think no crowds or sure increases scoring. But considering scoring generally increases as teams get tired, would 16 minute quarters mean the pressure remains for a higher percentage of the game? Cant figure out which has a bigger effect

 

[mookieb]

Coming around to Rich tonight so i'll split 1u between Rich -21.5 and 1-39. Bit of rain about so 1-39 probably better.

 

[ash_1050]

Backing all the underdogs with sportsbet 6 up at half time promo, 3 units a piece
Also tailed the M.Murphy AGS bet above for 1 unit

 

[NonPhixion]

Stevo is out, so I expect this means WHE will see more time deep-forward.
2+ $6
3+ $23
4+ $101
SB

 

[GROTTO]

Did research for tonights game, looking for some historical significance.

Tigers beat the Blues narrowly when the Spanish Flu hit Australia by 5pts, not sure which Tiger players were missing from that game.



Im also not sure if Hardwick's grandfather was even alive at the time.

 

[sneak]

5u Carlton under 50.5 @2.62

 

[demon_fanatic]

Not good signs for my over bet of 136.5 into 132.5 tab

 

[tombomb]

Not good signs for my over bet of 136.5 into 132.5 tab

i wouldnt be panicking. weather isn't that bad.

no crowds might impact the game in unexpected ways.

 

[Browney2006]

Not good signs for my over bet of 136.5 into 132.5 tab

This is going well over

 

[demon_fanatic]

Good start it'll slow up but looking good, needed riewoldt on the spreads not lynch n dusty haha

 

[demon_fanatic]

Castagna to kick 5+. 100-1. Had a nibble.

Looking ok!!

 

[Robo87]

Special thanks to riewoldt for giving that cheap goal to Castagna!! 2g down already!

 

[the_big_sav]

1u lynch 3+ @ 2.25
0.5u lynch 4+ @ 4.50
0.5u lynch 5+ @ 9.50

0.5u lynch 2 martin 2 castag atg bolton atg @ 9.75
1u lynch martin riewoldt castag atg @ 2.80
0.5u lynch 2 martin 2 castag 2 riewoldt 2 @ 25.50
0.5u lynch 2 riewoldt 2 castag 2 @ 10.75
0.5u lynch 3 riewoldt 2 martin atg castag atg @ 9.00

pretty good 1st half. just need lynch to get 2 and its a good first night of season

 

[the_big_sav]

dusty sneaking one more would be nice too!

 

[anabac]

Castagna to kick 5+. 100-1. Had a nibble.

Has kicked 3 so far....

 

[balmainforever]

Castagna to kick 5+. 100-1. Had a nibble.

Cmon goat, 2 more goals please.

 

[Robo87]

Has kicked 3 so far....

yea boy!! 1 more Castagna!! (3g+ was @12 & 4g+ was @56 in case anyone was wondering.)
didnt have confidence to go 5g+ cause hes only done that once in his afl career..

 

[GROTTO]

goals or behinds?

Cmon goat, 2 more goals please.

Im wondering if Castagna is a lock now for 4.1 tonight or 5+ goals.

Probably this and if the Tigers smash the Blues by 10+ goals is whats left in tonights game.