AFL 2020 AFL Round 1

[balmainforever]

Game	TAB	BetEasy	Sportsbet	Ladbrokes	Bet365
Richmond	$1.30	$1.30	$1.30	$1.30	$1.33
Carlton	$3.60	$3.55	$3.40	$3.50	$3.35
line:	Rich 20.5	Rich 20.5	Rich 19.5		Rich 19.5
total score:		140.5

Game	TAB	BetEasy	Sportsbet	Ladbrokes	Bet365
Western Bulldogs	$2.00	$1.95	$2.08	$2.05	$2.00
Collingwood	$1.80	$1.85	$1.75	$1.75	$1.82
line:	Coll 2.5	Coll 1.5			Coll 1.5
total score:

Game	TAB	BetEasy	Sportsbet	Ladbrokes	Bet365
Essendon	$1.50	$1.45	$1.48	$1.42	$1.48
Fremantle	$2.60	$2.75	$2.69	$2.80	$2.65
line:	Ess 14.5	Ess 15.5			Ess 13.5
total score:

Game	TAB	BetEasy	Sportsbet	Ladbrokes	Bet365
Adelaide	$1.75	$1.70	$1.68	$1.70	$1.70
Sydney	$2.10	$2.15	$2.15	$2.10	$2.18
line:	Adel 5.5	Adel 6.5			Adel 5.5
total score:

Game	TAB	BetEasy	Sportsbet	Ladbrokes	Bet365
G-Western Sydney	$1.60	$1.55	$1.67	$1.52	$1.60
Geelong	$2.35	$2.45	$2.35	$2.50	$2.35
line:	GWS 9.5	GWS 10.5			GWS 8.5
total score:

Game	TAB	BetEasy	Sportsbet	Ladbrokes	Bet365
Gold Coast	$2.60	$2.75	$2.65	$2.75	$2.65
Port Adelaide	$1.50	$1.45	$1.46	$1.45	$1.48
line:	PAdel 13.5	PAdel 15.5			PAdel 13.5
total score:

Game	TAB	BetEasy	Sportsbet	Ladbrokes	Bet365
North Melbourne	$2.00	$2.00	$2.00	$2.00	$2.02
St Kilda	$1.80	$1.80	$1.80	$1.80	$1.80
line:	StK 2.5	StK 2.5			StK 2.5
total score:

Game	TAB	BetEasy	Sportsbet	Ladbrokes	Bet365
Hawthorn	$2.05	$2.05	$2.08	$2.50	$2.05
Brisbane	$1.77	$1.75	$1.75	$1.75	$1.78
line:	Bris 3.5	Bris 4.5			Bris 3.5
total score:

Game	TAB	BetEasy	Sportsbet	Ladbrokes	Bet365
West Coast	$1.34	$1.30	$1.34	$1.33	$1.33
Melbourne	$3.30	$3.50	$3.18	$3.30	$3.35
line:	WCst 19.5	WCst 20.5			WCst 19.5
total score:

ODDS AT 21.15 ON 10/3/2020

 

[54Dogs]

Interesting to see if the Co-Vid stuff at Freo impacts odds today

 

[anabac]

I'm biased, but does anyone else think north are a decent bet at even money? Not over rating the Kangas but I feel like they've got the saints covered on every line?

 

[frantelle]

Any announced specials yet this year?

i.e. double winnings / 24 pt lead etc

 

[iluvparis]

Any announced specials yet this year?

i.e. double winnings / 24 pt lead etc

TAB giving $5 bonus bet for every win your flag bet team has in rounds 1-10 (min $20 flag bet)

 

[squeaky1000]

GWS -7.5
This is free money, they are purring and the Cats are a mess at the moment.
Saints -2.5
Have shown a bit over the pre season, expecting them to rise this year while North will struggle, Brown in serious doubt as well

Expect both of these lines to blow out closer to round 1 so jumping on now

 

[iluvparis]

How are the cats a mess without the season even starting? They get written off every year. People on this board last year were talking them up as starting 0-4 at this time.

 

[squeaky1000]

How are the cats a mess without the season even starting? They get written off every year. People on this board last year were talking them up as starting 0-4 at this time.

Can't speak for others but first year I've ever written them off. Expecting them to be fighting it out for the last spot or two in the 8 but against the Giants rd 1 I think they will get blown out of the water. Selwood in doubt, Duncan likely misses, time has finally caught up with Gazza, Hawkins will get sat on and the rest of the forward line is dysfunctional at best
Personally reckon Giants will win by 40+

 

[mookieb]

Looks like a good betting round:

5u GWS -5.5, 2u Ade -6.5 and 1u Melb +27.5.

Looking at Ess -14.5, StK -2.5, Hawks +1.5.

Would have liked Carl at +26.5 but with no Curnow or McKay I think they're too weak up front.

WB have come in alot. I don't think they're the better team until I see more of WB so i'll leave that game alone.

GC tend to start strong and Port tend to thrash weaker teams so a bit of a conundrum. GC +18.5 would have been the go when Dixon and Ryder got injured but gone now.

After last years round 1 debacle i'm looking closely at preparations - Ess, Freo, NM, Geel, Carl, Syd have had some injury concerns or limited preps so looking to fade these teams where possible.

 

[NonPhixion]

GWS -7.5
This is free money, they are purring and the Cats are a mess at the moment.
Saints -2.5
Have shown a bit over the pre season, expecting them to rise this year while North will struggle, Brown in serious doubt as well

Expect both of these lines to blow out closer to round 1 so jumping on now

Agree completely.
Especially GWS. They have a pretty healthy list right now, and I expect them to crush Geelong at home. Personally just can’t see where Geelong will improve, think they are much more likely to slide/stagnate. In a similar fashion to Sydney.
-7.5 is juicy. Probably look at 40+ too

 

[tombomb]

I'm biased, but does anyone else think north are a decent bet at even money? Not over rating the Kangas but I feel like they've got the saints covered on every line?

I can't get excited about North at that price. If you are keen, id suggest waiting until next week as I think North will drift.

 

[srobbo]

I'm biased, but does anyone else think north are a decent bet at even money? Not over rating the Kangas but I feel like they've got the saints covered on every line?

Not without BBB I don’t. Too reliant on him for a score & means Larkey gets sat on by Carlisle or Howard.

Saints started well last year & from what I’ve seen in pre season (as much as I take with a grain of salt) are healthier & look sharper.

I’ll be taking the $1.80

 

[srobbo]

Thinking the Crows are a good thing $1.65 at home against the swans.

Swans are bottom 6 material for me & with their two best fwds out/hindered in bud/heeney can’t see them getting a win here.

 

[anabac]

Not without BBB I don’t. Too reliant on him for a score & means Larkey gets sat on by Carlisle or Howard.

Saints started well last year & from what I’ve seen in pre season (as much as I take with a grain of salt) are healthier & look sharper.

I’ll be taking the $1.80

Fair enough. Thinking it's probably a match to stay out of now. Too many unknowns and no value either way. $1.80 is too short for the saints against nearly anyone in my opinion

 

[Minidisc MD]

I'm biased, but does anyone else think north are a decent bet at even money? Not over rating the Kangas but I feel like they've got the saints covered on every line?

Yeah I just see them being a much better side, there's some sort of rhetoric about the Saints improving noticeably... but why? Bradley Hill is a great get and shouldve won about 4 b&fs at Freo, but they havent brought anyone strong in and their drafting has been uninspired. The Kangaroos wont have that new coach wonderment but ask me who's sneaking into the eight and it ain't the Saints.

in terms of other non-favourites, Freo will be pretty poor this season but so too the Bombers, but can see the chip-chip-counter-attack of Justin Longmuir working alright against Essendon. it works better on broader, spacier grounds though and skills are always rickety in round one.

Bullies - Pies will be a great game. when you look at Hawks-Lions being 1.95 v 1.85, the Doggies being out 50 cents is a bit of a scratcher. Collingwood aren't an especially potent team early on at Etihad either.

Richmond being like 4 bucks to flog Carlton by 40+ more is a bit rough. the mechanical reigning premier v a hopeless bottom three side is easily a six goal different. Carlton's biggest recruit is a cooked small forward and Mitch McGovern is their messiah for goals. guy is a second tall at most, if Rance was still playing it would be embarrassing for him. chuck in Dusty getting 30 plus (who is seriously going to stop him?), baby face and Jack Riewoldt to kick one each, and it's a $6 gimme.

 

[5 Bucks]

Thinking the Crows are a good thing $1.65 at home against the swans.

Swans are bottom 6 material for me...

And what are the Crows?

 

[srobbo]

And what are the Crows?

They finish higher than sydney imo.

 

[Jammer]

1/2 UNIT Demons +25.5 Pointsbet $1.90

Plenty of unknowns in this game.

Coasters have been ordinary in pre season..... ( could just click into gear for the real stuff? )
Melbourne have been pretty good pre season..... ( form could be flattering? )
No crowd in the West has got to negate a fair slice of home ground advantage.....

I dont like Eagles backline nor their lack of small forwards
Happy to take the start for half stakes on Melbourne

 

[Sausage Legs]

Completed ur homework for yas if we go ahead. Basically same game multis any time goal snaggers.
Note, have not looked at weather.

Rich v Carl
Castagna, Lambert, Gibbons $5. Add Rioli if greedy and get $7.75. (I like 2 player multis and rotate em).

Dogs v Coll
Bont, Mihocek, Bailey Dale 3.25. Also like dogs at line or even to win here.

Ess v Freo
Devon Smith, Laverde, Schultz $5.50

Crows v Schwans
Lachlan Murphy, Hayward, Blakey 4 bucks.

GWS v Cats
Zac Langdon, Josh Kelly, Gryan Miers 7.50. reckon this game has value. Can rotate players with Daniel Lloyd or Conigs too.
Langdon for 2 snags is 6.50 by itself which also looks good to me.

GC v Port Pear
Darcy McPherson, Rozee, Duursma 4.33. Not real confident here. Reckon this game could be close tho, wish Sexton was playing. Knows where the sticks are.

Kangs v Saints
Lonie, Thomas, Garner 5 clammys.

Hawks v Bris
Timmy O'Brien, McLuggage and Rayner, chuck in Lachie Neale to get 30 possys multid at 6 bucks. Be betting on Lach to get 35 and even 40 when it pops up cos Alistair Clarkson could not give a rats how many times he gets it, should rack em.

Mighty Eags v Melb
Petrucelli, Waterman and some spud from Dees, surely they get 1. 4 bucks.

The 10.61 multi everyones talkin about. Lachie Neale 30+, Zac Langdon sausage, Gryan Miers sausage, Jack Lonie sausage, Castagna sausage.

I generally only multi 2 together but added extras cos yolo. Lets eat.

 

[maskmcgee]

Thinking the Crows are a good thing $1.65 at home against the swans.

Swans are bottom 6 material for me & with their two best fwds out/hindered in bud/heeney can’t see them getting a win here.

Complete opposite. Swans are miles better than Adelaide. Crows are a rabble. Swans free money.

 

[Spacedog]

I don't mind Carlton at $4 and the dogs, especially if Treloar misses

 

[NonPhixion]

I don't mind Carlton at $4 and the dogs, especially if Treloar misses

McKay, Curnow & Betts all ruled out for Rd 1. I’m optimistic about Carlton this year, but can’t see them kicking a winning score

 

[iluvparis]

Would be staggered if we are good enough to get anywhere near the Tiges

 

[burge13]

Games wont be going ahead. 2x tigers staff being tested and there's a big teleconference tomorrow discuss with players, coaches etc. Id be stunned of we get any games in

 

[maskmcgee]