AFL 2020 - AFL Round 10

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The Jake Aarts bet @ $5.10 to beat Charlie Cameron, saved my night (beat him 2 goals to 1 Head to head ). Wasn't feeling too confident after Charlie kicked the 1st goal.

Thanks to the forum poster that said it was better to back him for 2+ goals as well.

Aarts is a very underrated footballer and is a dangerous forward in a potent Tigers forward line.
 

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Rolling on with the 4 day break betting, 3 from 3 lines covered by the teams up against 4 day break teams. Melbourne to spank Adelaide tomorrow (although adelaide have brought a lot of fresh players in)
 
benji21 said:
Rolling on with the 4 day break betting, 3 from 3 lines covered by the teams up against 4 day break teams. Melbourne to spank Adelaide tomorrow (although adelaide have brought a lot of fresh players in)
Click to expand...


Geelong too have brought in some fresh players in Selwood, Jack Steven, Rhys Stanley and Atkins. I guess they have no choice but to bring in some fresh legs for the match. Noticed that Ben Brown is an in for the Roos.
 
Robo87 said:
Using this this idea to make a simpler multi of
1u SGM -Higgins, Martin, reiwoldt ags and Ross 15+ @ 9.40 SB boosted.
0.2u tailing yours above too

1u reiwoldt 2g+. @2.50
1u arts 2g+ @4.50 be
1u Martin 2g+ @2.80 sb
1u Higgins ags @2.37 sb
0.5u Higgins 2g+ @9.50 sb
1u lambert ags @2.20 sb
Click to expand...

Higgins continued to tease me tonight. He looked to blow a few chances and if he is at the same odds for 2 i will no doubt back him in again on Saturday night.
 

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Both Geelong and North on a 4 day break but Geelong are coming back from WA, whereas North have been in QLD and played the most bruise free game against Adelaide. Geelong could easily get spanked and North could easily be s**t like they have been prior to the Adelaide game haha
 
How can anybody bet on either match tomorrow with any confidence?

It is possible that neither of the underdogs genuinely want to win.

However both of the favourites are in patchy form and tend to go missing quarter to quarter, even week to week.

Could be two shootouts, could be two boring and dour quagmires of shite.

Then when you factor in the number of changes across all four teams, the whole thing becomes a crapshoot.

As much as I'd like to put on some bets and sink some cans, I might just skip the entire lot.
 
Im more confident that Geelong will be tired, than the Roos being lethargic. Think North have been based in Queensland for 3 weeks now, so they will definitely be more comfortable in their surroundings. I'm not sold that all of the Geelong players will be focused on this match, and it may be worth a play on the Roos to belt them as they could run them ragged. Roos by 25+ paying $10, Roos by 40+ paying $23

Last year Geelong belted the Roos, but 3 of their best 6 players who played then, aren't playing tomorrow night: Kelly, Ablett and Narkle aren't playing.

I feel there is a chance in both underdogs winning tomorrow but feel more stronger about the Roos to beat Geelong than the Crows over the Dees.
 
thoughts on - Sam Simpson ags @2.25 be (2g+@8,)
geelong fwd pocket, only kicked 2g 1b in 4 games, but no Rohan or Ratugolea this week so gives others a chance for goals..
Or even north new fwds - Jack Mahony, Lachie Hosie anyone confident on one of them to kick a sausage?

1u sgm- Hawkins, Zurhaar , Simpson ags @4.40 be
 
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NYRB said:
Im more confident that Geelong will be tired, than the Roos being lethargic. Think North have been based in Queensland for 3 weeks now, so they will definitely be more comfortable in their surroundings. I'm not sold that all of the Geelong players will be focused on this match, and it may be worth a play on the Roos to belt them as they could run them ragged. Roos by 25+ paying $10, Roos by 40+ paying $23

Last year Geelong belted the Roos, but 3 of their best 6 players who played then, aren't playing tomorrow night: Kelly, Ablett and Narkle aren't playing.

I feel there is a chance in both underdogs winning tomorrow but feel more stronger about the Roos to beat Geelong than the Crows over the Dees.
Click to expand...

Ablett and Narkle aren’t a big loss.

I’m pretty sure the Cats have pencilled this in for a win and will do anything to achieve it.

North are a basket case. They were 17th before beating Adelaide.

There’s a big gap between these two clubs.
 
The last 4 weeks, bar the loss to Richmond who are a very good side-, the Roos performances have been honorable, a bit unlucky to lose against Carlton at the GABBA ( Jasper Pittard couple of acts cost them the game), convincing win over Adelaide , and a hard fought close game against the Bombers.

All 4 of these games were played in Queensland.
 
Its been a weird season, but pretty confident in Melb and Geelong. Melb coming off a loss to port after a 4 day break, before that they pushed the lions. They come up against a slow midfield that cant win contested footy coming off a 4 day break. Cats have been in great form and their ins are as good as their outs.
 
if North play like they did against Adelaide last week, im confident the Roos can do the job. Rhys Shaw, sure aim to play a fast brand of footy and try to run Geelong off their legs. I have never done the Brisbane to Perth flight but from what I have heard it takes a good couple of days to get over the jet lag.
 
Robo87 said:
Or even north new fwds - Jack Mahony, Lachie Hosie anyone confident on one of them to kick a sausage?
Click to expand...
I have small plays on Hosie AGS @ 2.30, 2+ @ 8 and 3+ @ 46. He is an agile tallish forward, kicked a few bags at SANFL level.

Brown will do his usual run around and create space thing, leaving Hosie and/or Majak free to make runs forward.

I also like Will Walker @ 2.10, 8 and 36. Taking the injured Taylor's spot up forward.

Hasn't played in two years; four games to his name, kicked goals in last three before injury, including two against Brisbane at the Gabba.

You might say 'that was two years ago' but it says to me he has talent, we'll see if the long layoff is too much to overcome.

Without any real forwardline, Tuohy might be given more freedom to run forward, 2+ @ 4.50 seems like value.

He kicked two last week against much better opposition, and has had at least one shot on goal every match for the past five.

Based on the changes it looks like Pittard is going back to defence, so I don't see Shaw trying to slow Tuohy down off half back with a 'tag'.

Geelong board seems confident Danger will play forward for most of the game. 2+ @ 3.75 and 3+ @ 12. Worth a look.

I've also multid a few of these up but I'm not betting more than tiny amounts on this match because I fear it could be a dour borefest.

Geelong seem to like to take the ball to the boundary at every opportunity when defending the transition, and North play a slow, kick down the line gameplan.

If there were a market for total boundary throwins, I'd be all over it.

I can just see it now. Kick long to contest. Over the boundary. Kick long to contest. Over the boundary. Turnover. Rinse. Repeat.

If it is crap after the first quarter I might just switch off and do something different. The game starts at about 3pm where I am.

My favourite multi of the day: Danger 2+ into Hosie 2+ @ 38 (3+ into 3+ @ 801).
 
NYRB said:
if North play like they did against Adelaide last week, im confident the Roos can do the job. Rhys Shaw, sure aim to play a fast brand of footy and try to run Geelong off their legs. I have never done the Brisbane to Perth flight but from what I have heard it takes a good couple of days to get over the jet lag.
Click to expand...
The selections are intriguing for both teams.

Norths ins are all either big distance coverers (e.g. Brown) or fast / agile (Walker / Hosie) or pure outsiders (Polec).

Assuming North are not tanking (and I'm still dubious about that) then it seems they are planning to do as you suggest and run the Cats off their feet.

Meanwhile Geelong have dropped half their forwardline and brought in Steven (out of shape), Selwood (not getting any younger) and a ruckman.

I don't know enough about Z Guthrie or Atkins to know if they are plodders or can run. Hopefully the former.

On paper, if it's a sunny day, and North are genuinely trying to win, then they could spank this Cats outfit like they did Port last year.

Coming back from Perth on four days is ridiculous, the Cats should have been given an extra day's rest.
 
I just realised it is even worse than that.

North played Carlton on Sat 25 and then Adelaide on Saturday afternoon (three matches in 11 days).

The Cats played Freo on Mon 27 and then West Coast on Saturday night (three matches in 9 days).

So North has had an extra two days rest across the three matches, AND stayed in QLD the whole time.

Meanwhile the Cats have flown across the continent.

Then throw in the fact that north 'dropped' (rested) two of their highest paid players, both running types...

Is Shaw about to prove that he is some kind of master strategist?
 
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