AFL 2020 - AFL Round 12 (no aftertiming allowed)

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bet365 down to due site maintenance

 

[Robo87]

Daniels- GWS
I'm thinking of a completely random shot on daniels tomorrow, playing fwd pocket . Hasnt kicked a goal yet and hence his high odds, BUT he has kicked 6 behinds in the last 4 games so its only a matter of time before he kicks 1 goal or 2 imo.
1.5u daniels ags @2.20 sb
0.7u daniels 2g+ @8 sb
0.3u daniels 3g+ @36 sb
0.1u daniels 4g+ @101 sb
(only need 1g to cover.)

 

[yousnoozeyoulose]

Daniels- GWS
I'm Thinking of a totally random shot on daniels tomorrow, playing fwd pocket . Hasnt kicked a goal yet and hence his high odds, BUT he has kicked 6 behinds in the last 4 games so its only a matter of time before he kicks 1 goal or 2 imo.
1.5u daniels ags @2.20 sb
0.7u daniels 2g+ @8 sb
0.3u daniels 3g+ @36 sb
0.1u daniels 4g+ @101 sb
(only need 1g to cover.)

Man is he frustrating to watch. Shaw trolled him in the "roaming with brian" spin off after their last game. He literally couldn't buy a goal. The good thing is hes parked in that forward line all game.

 

[Sausage Legs]

My prayer of the week.
Callum AhChee looked to play predominately fwd last week v dogs. Kicked 2.1 and looked comfy. Named fp again. Bris play the kangs so I'm guessing someone will be filling their boots.
Is 5.50 for 2 snags and 100-1 for 4.
Could say the same with a few players McLuggage, McStay, McCarthy, McZorko or even Neale.

 

[dontlimitme]

My prayer of the week.
Callum AhChee looked to play predominately fwd last week v dogs. Kicked 2.1 and looked comfy. Named fp again. Bris play the kangs so I'm guessing someone will be filling their boots.
Is 5.50 for 2 snags and 100-1 for 4.
Could say the same with a few players McLuggage, McStay, McCarthy, McZorko or even Neale.

great call. Especially if cameron doesn't get up

 

[JuniorWatch]

Few early plays:
Mids getting big numbers lately and the pies did last week against the young swans
Kelly 30+ ($6),
35+ ($23) Lads
Taranto 30+ ($8)
35+ ($41) Tab

Melbourne consistently running over the top of tired teams. Pies look tired. Hoping the weather clears in 4 days time.
Q4 Margin 25-32 $41
33+ $201
Q4 behinds
5 $4
6 $101
7+ $501

 

[Geeves Train]

Few early plays:
Mids getting big numbers lately and the pies did last week against the young swans
Kelly 30+ ($6),
35+ ($23) Lads
Taranto 30+ ($8)
35+ ($41) Tab

Melbourne consistently running over the top of tired teams. Pies look tired. Hoping the weather clears in 4 days time.
Q4 Margin 25-32 $41
33+ $201
Q4 behinds
5 $4
6 $101
7+ $501

Like 33+ last quarter, Collingwood pretty ordinary vs Crows and Melbourne can turn it on. At $201 it’s worth a few sheckles!!

 

[Ohh Ok]

5u GWS/Brisbane/Bulldogs/WCE @ $2.01 (Topsport)

-WCE and Brisbane off a day extra break, Bulldogs off two extra. GWS (vs Sydney) both “fresh” off a bye.
-GWS sitting in 8th, building momentum, foot is heavy on the gas and a win will see them firm in their position in the 8. Sydney ultra depleted and starting to give the kids a run. Two teams with different aspirations.
-North another ultra depleted side who seem to have a bit of an unsettled bunch at the moment. Brisbane far too much quality and continue pushing and cementing their spot.
-Bulldogs a must win. Have lost their last 3 against top 4 sides. A must win game to get back in the 8 vs the winless crows.
-WCE playing their home ground and will outclass the Hawks. Lots of competition for a top 4 spot, so plenty to play for.
-Essentially backing against the 4 bottoms sides and putting my money with some teams that have a lot more to play for and a reason to win

3u Carlton SU @ $1.85

13th vs 14th
Carlton actually come into this quite fresh; 9 days between their last two games and 5 between their last. Freo; 7 and 4. Backing the fresher team, tick. Both teams going through a rebuild, but I think Carlton are further along in their progress and boast some more experience around the ground. Freo seem to be focusing on developing their youngsters which means sacrificing Fyfe up forward for extended periods. Carlton look to be strengthened by the return of Harry McKay who should Cause a struggling Freo backline plenty of issues.

0.5u Fyfe 2+ goals, Mckay 3+ goals @ $49.75 (SB)

 

[benji21]

Freo/Carlton under 85.5 @5s and under 105.5. Game could go under anyways as freo will look to control the ball as much as possible against an aggressive team in carlton. On top of that most the rain on Saturday is predicted around game time, maybe this week it'll actually hit.

 

[Spacedog]

I’m smashing Freo at $2.1, those are ridiculous odds considering Freo are playing at home and will have Walters back.

 

[5 Bucks]

Like the Dockers. Their mids are firing even without Fyfe in there. Hogan a chance to return and play CHB. Walters back. At home.

 

[5 Bucks]

GWS -20.5, Daniels AGS, Kelly 25+, Whit 25+, Hopper 20+

$18 BE

 

[Stevi_Tigers]

Finlayson 3+/himmelberg 2+@9.75

Finlayson 3+/himmelberg 3+ @23

 

[Johanpetro]

Any Sydney fans can shed some light on Sam Wicks? Named forward pocket and kicked a goal last week. Is $7.50 for 2+ goals and $2.15 AGS. Cheers

 

[BloodRet]

Copy paste from R11 thread.
Mccartin ags
Reid ags
Himmelberg 2+
Finlayson 2+
@11.75

You'd expect Rampe goes straight to Cameron. That leaves Finlayson and Himmelberg on C-grade defenders in Melican and Thurlow. Assuming Mccartin and Reid both stay up forward as they have done, I think they will both snag one also.

I have also whacked a 50 bonus bet on Himmelberg 4+ @14 cos why not. Think either him or Finlayson could have a big night.

 

[NonPhixion]

Himmelberg to get isolation on an average opponent, Coniglio to spend a bit of time forward (kicked 4 against Sydney last year) & Kelly to do his thing

 

[chennef]

Few early plays:
Mids getting big numbers lately and the pies did last week against the young swans
Kelly 30+ ($6),
35+ ($23) Lads
Taranto 30+ ($8)
35+ ($41) Tab

Melbourne consistently running over the top of tired teams. Pies look tired. Hoping the weather clears in 4 days time.
Q4 Margin 25-32 $41
33+ $201
Q4 behinds
5 $4
6 $101
7+ $501

Like it, where you getting these odds for the Q4 plays?

 

[NYRB]

This young Sydney team is getting found out as the season goes deeper. If GWS get ahead early or in the 1st half, they could step on the gas in the 2nd half and look for a bit of a percentage booster. A big win tonight, could put them as high as 3rd on the ladder, a small margin win just pushes them up to 6th on the ladder. So there should be some incentive to win big for them.

In the last 6 matches, this Swans teams has scored more points in the 1st half compared to their 2nd halves. They have averaged a measly 19.33 points in the 2nd half in the last 6 matches. I have a question similar to the Adelaide Crows, whether they have the fitness to last the full 4 quarters against a more experienced finals proven team.

In comparison this GWS team has played their 2nd halves much more stronger scoring wise. GWS have scored more points in the 2nd halves in comparison to 1st halves , 9-0. They average 36 points in the 2nd half. The handicap for the match is -20.5 Giants paying $1.90. It might be worthy just to watch the 1st half, and then possibly bet in-play during the game, when there are signs the Swans are tiring.

if your going back to Overs, be wary, because you will need Sydney to help you out with the scoring. With this young team, not sure I could trust that to happen.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Love the Freo price too, becoming a hard team to play against! Brayshaw, Cerra , Serong growing Every week..I know it's dangerous to take a team on a 4 day break but I really think Geelong can win,they had a non taxing stroll vs saints with a possession based game and have the smarts to control the Helter skelter fast port in a similar way obviously won't blow them out but think they can win h2h, port Also travelling takes out any advantage, Scott has indicated Danger has had enough of a spell and will likely be needed in middle more too so that helps,also the flag fav curse has been real this year so I'm backing the trend of the hype team to lose the next week

 

[NYRB]

Love the Freo price too, becoming a hard team to play against! Brayshaw, Cerra , Serong growing Every week..I know it's dangerous to take a team on a 4 day break but I really think Geelong can win,they had a non taxing stroll vs saints with a possession based game and have the smarts to control the Helter skelter fast port in a similar way obviously won't blow them out but think they can win h2h, port Also travelling takes out any advantage, Scott has indicated Danger has had enough of a spell and will likely be needed in middle more too so that helps,also the flag fav curse has been real this year so I'm backing the trend of the hype team to lose the next week

I also feel that the game Port had against Richmond may zap a bit of energy out of them. It was by far the highest intensity match played this season from start to end. Geelong in their win, could afford to take their foot off the gas a bit in the 2nd half when they knew they had the game in the bag.

 

[Johanpetro]

Like it, where you getting these odds for the Q4 plays?

SportsBet under Margin Markets

 

[tangolikelama]

Himmelberg to get isolation on an average opponent, Coniglio to spend a bit of time forward (kicked 4 against Sydney last year) & Kelly to do his thing




View attachment 934119

Tailed @66

 

[Sausage Legs]

I also feel that the game Port had against Richmond may zap a bit of energy out of them. It was by far the highest intensity match played this season from start to end. Geelong in their win, could afford to take their foot off the gas a bit in the 2nd half when they knew they had the game in the bag.

I'd nullify this by saying port have recently had longer breaks than their opposition and have had the luxury of being at home.

 

[NYRB]

Himmelberg to get isolation on an average opponent, Coniglio to spend a bit of time forward (kicked 4 against Sydney last year) & Kelly to do his thing




View attachment 934119

Quite like this bet but have played a tad safe.

Kelly 25+ Disposals
Himmelberg 2+ Goals
Coniglio 1+ Goal

Odds: $11.75 boosted to $13.69 at Ladbrokes

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Copy paste from R11 thread.
Mccartin ags
Reid ags
Himmelberg 2+
Finlayson 2+
@11.75

You'd expect Rampe goes straight to Cameron. That leaves Finlayson and Himmelberg on C-grade defenders in Melican and Thurlow. Assuming Mccartin and Reid both stay up forward as they have done, I think they will both snag one also.

$14 BE