AFL 2020 - AFL Round 13 (no aftertiming allowed)

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Prochard123

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 28, 2014
5,006
3,157
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Collingwood
6 of the listed 7 Sportsbet Disposal Under/Overs, went Unders.

Might be value multi-ing it be selecting 3 to 4 players.
Yeap the bookies in general are shifting towards excessively high lines after being too low early on in the season.

Will look at unders more often from here.
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
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Reckon if North Melbourne play like they did against Brisbane the week before, they are a chance of knocking off Collingwood tomorrow. Rhys Shaw has made a statement by not recalling the players dropped from the previous week in: Hall, Pittard, Majak Daw and Polec.
 

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Atavistic

Premiership Player
Jan 22, 2008
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Take the payout? 155$ If woods were the last leg pick I could load up on roos put 5 on the draw and chill. I still rekn Norf are a sneaky chance.View attachment 943430
You're better off hedging. 500 on Collingwood and you come out with more than $155 regardless of the outcome.

Edit: and a bit on the draw too, I guess.
 
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anabac

All Australian
Feb 21, 2011
745
401
banana boat
AFL Club
North Melbourne
any north fans got any thoughts on lachie hosie. 2.50 ags at bet easy remember he kicked 2 on debut but they were both from free kicks. didnt have a shot in his 2nd game
I think you've answered your own question - haven't seen enough of him to give a definitive answer. $2-$2.50 probably around the right mark. He will only play forward so I guess he's got to be a chance of kicking a goal
 

burge13

Club Legend
Jan 25, 2019
2,722
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AFL Club
Adelaide
Looking ahead. Tigs over WCE Thursday at 1.86

Lynch may get a week but WCE short break plus travel. Teams off the short breaks don't have a good record and WCE have been hopeless away from Optus this season...

Saints over Dees 1.82 looks too obvious also?
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
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Auckland, New Zealand
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The Brown Dog from Sportsbet 2 from 19. I've followed his bet again.

He got a $1.32 shot wrong yesterday in his multi. Hahahaha

he has tipped a $1.22 and a $1.36 shot in his North v Collingwood multi today. Watch this space.
 

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NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
3,880
1,445
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
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Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
Both teams come into the game with a full 8 days break, so they should be fresh. I think it's fair to say some of the games in the past 3 weeks have been boring, low standard games.....especially the games with low scores. Someone mentioned on this thread that the standard of footy has dropped and I wouldn't disagree.

I think a few of the Pies players are playing for their careers here tonight so there may be a bit more added pressure on players like: Mason Cox, Mayne, Travis Varcoe to name just a few.

On paper the Pies team is better but not sure if i can touch their odds in their head to head.
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
3,880
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Auckland, New Zealand
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Sportsbet Line for Disposals for tonights match between Pies and the Roos:

Pendlebury Under/Over 24.5
Sidebottom Under/Over 23.5
Adams Unders/Over 24.5
Jed Anderson Under/Over 20.5
Jy Simpkin Under/Over 22.5
Shaun Higgins Under/Over 22.5
Dumont Under/Over 21.5

Player averages in 2020 (from Rounds 2 to 12). Now I have excluded Round 1 because I feel it is distorts the averages as both teams won in Round 1 and for Collingwood sake, the disposals in Round 1 pushed the averages up.

Averages from Round 2 to 12:
Pendlebury 22.38 (8 matches)
Sidebottom 23.43 (7 matches)
Adams 22.00 (11 matches)
Dumont 21.18 (11 matches)
Jed Anderson 19.44 (9 matches)
Simpkin 20.91 (11 matches)
Higgins 22.00 (11 matches)


So my prediction would be: Pendlebury UNDER, Sidebottom UNDER, Adams UNDER, Anderson UNDER, Simpkin UNDER, Higgins UNDER, Dumont UNDER.

Think at least 2-4 of those will go Unders.

However if the Roos are to win, reckon a good bet is : Pendlebury Under, Higgins Under.

If Collingwood are to win, a good bet is: Simpkin Under, Dumont Under, Anderson Under


Higgins has been named on the centre half forward line on the team sheet, and I fancy him to spend a bit of time in the forward line in this match, and should get a bit of time in the midfield. Hence me leaning unders towards Higgins.

Im struggling to make a case for multi-ing any of those with an over, if you do it, you do so at your own risk.
 
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Ohh Ok

All Australian
Jul 31, 2018
832
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Adelaide
2.5u Sidebottom over 88.5 fantasy pts @ $1.85 (lads).

He’s 4/8 on this one this season. Backing purely on the basis of him leaving the hub after this game. Expecting a slightly higher TOG% due to it being his last hit out for the foreseeable future and as a result load management is not required. Also expect a greater effort/desire to perform well tonight and leave his teammates on the back of a solid performance.
 

squeaky1000

Senior List
Apr 30, 2018
219
291
AFL Club
Hawthorn
The Brown Dog from Sportsbet 2 from 19. I've followed his bet again.

He got a $1.32 shot wrong yesterday in his multi. Hahahaha

he has tipped a $1.22 and a $1.36 shot in his North v Collingwood multi today. Watch this space.
You seem to have an endless supply of money that you happily donate to Sportsbet, what say I chuck you my bank details and you send it my way instead? I dare say I have more use for it than they do
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
3,880
1,445
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
You seem to have an endless supply of money that you happily donate to Sportsbet, what say I chuck you my bank details and you send it my way instead? I dare say I have more use for it than they do

I'm also a supporter of charities, so thanks for the offer and I'll think about it in future.
 

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