AFL 2020 - AFL Round 13 (no aftertiming allowed)

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NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
3,881
1,445
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
After tonights performance, don't think Collingwood can win the flag. Their ball movement is too sideways and backwards.

The good teams will play a quicker brand of football.
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
3,881
1,445
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
Going to say it right now. The players from both teams were playing for disposals in the last 5 minutes. Really surprised the Roos, didn't go down the corridor more.

Tonight's Sportsbet disposals Unders/Overs, 4 went Overs, 3 went unders. The overs went to : Pendlebury, Adams, Anderson and Higgins. The unders went to : Simpkin, Dumont and Sidebottom. Will keep that in mind when betting on possessions next time involving these teams. Damn, its a sad day when disposals are more important than goals in this game.
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
3,881
1,445
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
I will also say, its easier to 'spot fix' on disposals than it is for goals. I was wrong on the disposals , predicting around 2 overs, and 5 unders.

Definitely the AFL players now are thinking "I have to get 15 possies" rather than "kicking a goal " as their priority. That's why I say the game is in a sad state right now, the ball movement is slow, and players have to keep supporters and punters happy with more disposals. The quality of footy is not the same as it used to be.

With the reduced quarters, a listed $10 shot to get 30+ disposals is a better bet than a $10 shot on a player to kick say 3+ goals.
 

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Bazza97

Premiership Player
Nov 17, 2016
3,783
3,790
Melbourne
AFL Club
Melbourne
I've really narrowed in on WHE and Hosie for goals so hopefully they can hit the scoreboard. My bets for tonight's game.

WHE and Hosie AGS $4 SB
LDU 15+ disp, Maynard 15+ disp, WHE and Hosie AGS $7 SB

WHE 2+ goals $4 SB
Hosie 2+ goals $10 BE
WHE and Hosie 2+ goals $44.75 SB
Happy overall with tonight, the two bets in bold got up. Going into the game, I was hoping those two bets at a minimum would get up and anything else a bonus so can't really complain. Now onto the next round.
 

Robo87

Club Legend
Aug 3, 2014
1,401
1,330
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Looking ahead. Tigs over WCE Thursday at 1.86

Lynch may get a week but WCE short break plus travel. Teams off the short breaks don't have a good record and WCE have been hopeless away from Optus this season...

Saints over Dees 1.82 looks too obvious also?
wc only have 1 less day. not a huge difference. still see it as a 50/50 game
i agree with saints tho.
 

Prochard123

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 28, 2014
5,006
3,157
AFL Club
Collingwood
I will also say, its easier to 'spot fix' on disposals than it is for goals. I was wrong on the disposals , predicting around 2 overs, and 5 unders.

Definitely the AFL players now are thinking "I have to get 15 possies" rather than "kicking a goal " as their priority. That's why I say the game is in a sad state right now, the ball movement is slow, and players have to keep supporters and punters happy with more disposals. The quality of footy is not the same as it used to be.

With the reduced quarters, a listed $10 shot to get 30+ disposals is a better bet than a $10 shot on a player to kick say 3+ goals.
You're really over-emphasizing one or two elements.

You keep thinking 1 factor will dictate the result of the game, when this is obviously more complex than that. Nathan Brown betting on something does not necessarily mean you should follow/bet against. The fact that sportsbet's lines were mostly too high in 1 game does not mean you should bet unders on all players in another game. Similarly, the fact that this was a high possession game also doesn't mean you should bet overs on the next game.

Take a break. Your recent track record has been much lower than a coin flip.
 
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squeaky1000

Senior List
Apr 30, 2018
219
291
AFL Club
Hawthorn
You're really emphasizing one or two elements.

You keep thinking 1 factor will dictate the result of the game, when this is obviously more complex than that. Nathan Brown betting on something does not necessarily mean you should follow/bet against. The fact that sportsbet's lines were mostly too high in 1 game does not mean you should bet unders on all players in another game. Similarly, the fact that this was a high possession game also doesn't mean you should bet overs on the next game.

Take a break. Your recent track record has been much lower than a coin flip.
He either has unlimited money or is acquiring some serious debt ahah. Either way I'm sure sportsbet are very happy to have him as a customer.
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
3,881
1,445
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
You're really emphasizing one or two elements.

You keep thinking 1 factor will dictate the result of the game, when this is obviously more complex than that. Nathan Brown betting on something does not necessarily mean you should follow/bet against. The fact that sportsbet's lines were mostly too high in 1 game does not mean you should bet unders on all players in another game. Similarly, the fact that this was a high possession game also doesn't mean you should bet overs on the next game.

Take a break. Your recent track record has been much lower than a coin flip.

Yep your right, I need to take a bit of a break. My multis didn't come through tonight and need to reevaluate. I haven't really taken to multi betting in AFL till this year.

I definitely know that betting on unders/overs on disposals at time is a bit of a coin flip. I was fully aware that a high disposal match, doesn't mean most of the players will clear the 'overs'. Always do think its good to do a bit of research on the bets though. Speaking of the Brown Dog, all of his legs were failed runners.

I have watched all the games this round, and I won't lie ,when a match is over, some teams milk the ball around to bump up their stats. (Collingwood and the Roos are example of such sides) The Roos tonight were down by 3-4 goals with about 10 minutes to go, and were still playing for stats.
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
3,881
1,445
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
He either has unlimited money or is acquiring some serious debt ahah. Either way I'm sure sportsbet are very happy to have him as a customer.
Just a normal job-teaching to university students. (I prefer not to go into subject or specific detail) I don't need to rely on people for money. Living independently for the last 7 years.

I play within my limits.
 

Prochard123

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 28, 2014
5,006
3,157
AFL Club
Collingwood
Yep your right, I need to take a bit of a break. My multis didn't come through tonight and need to reevaluate. I haven't really taken to multi betting in AFL till this year.

I definitely know that betting on unders/overs on disposals at time is a bit of a coin flip. I was fully aware that a high disposal match, doesn't mean most of the players will clear the 'overs'. Always do think its good to do a bit of research on the bets though. Speaking of the Brown Dog, all of his legs were failed runners.

I have watched all the games this round, and I won't lie ,when a match is over, some teams milk the ball around to bump up their stats. (Collingwood and the Roos are example of such sides) The Roos tonight were down by 3-4 goals with about 10 minutes to go, and were still playing for stats.
Guessing you're not teaching a quantitative subject, otherwise you would know basic probability theory of independent events.

Although, no punter is perfect. I know that I should just stick to one or two fields to build expertise, but I can't help myself to branch out. Decent result tonight, but would've been much better if I didn't throw 6 units at North to beat the 16.5 line with the @$2.00 line promotion.

You should narrow your focus too.
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
3,881
1,445
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
I will also say well done to the disposal posters on this thread, this is taking nothing away from you guys who won this weekend or last night. Just wanted to get the point across, that the viewing product of the sport, is at an all-time low point. Think a few people have mentioned this in a few betting threads, the game today is alot different to what it was in the 90's and early 2000's, you could make a point that you could hardly identify the sport if you were to watch the game in different eras. Watching the game as a kid , there used to be an unpredictability to the game, and it was a pretty much a win at all costs motto. I think its a mix of things that has seen the game change: more interchanges, players becoming more of the athlete prototype, the emphasis on ball possession, milking the clock, players playing to please fans/punters for fantasy points/Dream Team/betting etc . (in a way the tactics of soccer, basketball, rugby union have been taken from those sports and coaches have adopted those philosophies into our game- Hence, why the AFL has kept changing rules year by year)

I think with regards to comments by : Mitch Robinson, Callan Ward, Grimes, Nic Nat, Lachie Neale and the abuse they have received on social media indicates that we are in dangerous territory when followers of the game, are worried about a disposal here or there over the integrity of the game. Do understand that the team result will always be first but this junk time play when teams are 5 goals up (or 5 goals behind), with nothing to play for , and just passing the ball around, is not a good image for the game. i have this weird feeling that in future that there may be some sort of 'bonus point' system to reward teams to keep playing their natural attacking game or reward teams for higher scoring. Gary Lyon I think mentioned for instance a year ago when the Demons were going crap, that they were simply a team that played for stats. I didn't fully understand the meaning of that back then- but I do so now. Passing the ball around the backline, is not 'real footy'.
 
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md20

Debutant
Apr 24, 2020
103
107
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
I probably should have looked when i put the bets on. But did Sportsbet have the usual promo if one leg fails on 3+ leg SGM, get your money back?
I had 2 SGM's last night that both lost by a leg (thanks Simpkin) and haven't got bonus bets from them.


On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
3,881
1,445
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
I probably should have looked when i put the bets on. But did Sportsbet have the usual promo if one leg fails on 3+ leg SGM, get your money back?
I had 2 SGM's last night that both lost by a leg (thanks Simpkin) and haven't got bonus bets from them.


On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app
No they aren't doing that anymore.
 

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