AFL 2020 - AFL Round 13 (no aftertiming allowed)

[Geeves Train]

Taylor Adams $3.00 AGS
Luke Mac $10 30+ disp

BetEasy/TABtouch

Both seem decent overs in what is shaping as an absolute dog of a game

 

[NYRB]

3 bets for me:

Davies-Uniacke to win Most Disposals in Group B - $10 (consisting of Maynard, Daicos, Noble, Crisp, Goldstein, Atley, Davies-Uniacke) at Sportsbet. Has been given more time in the midfield and averaged around 21 disposals per game(from 4 matches), since been included. Maynard is the threat but Im banking that the Pies will win this game, and the ball will be more in their forward line.

Sidebottom to win Most Disposals in Group A( consisting of Sidebottom, Pendlebury, Adams, Dumont, Anderson, Simpkin, Higgins, McDonald) , WHE 2+ Goals @ $23.81 Ladbrokes. Feel the only danger here is Adams, he got 30 disposals in his last game, and Sidebottom got 29.

Sidebottom to get 30+ Disposals, WHE 2+ Goals @ $24 from Neds. Just want to give myself a bit of insurance in case, Sidebottom doesn't get top disposals as mentioned from post above.

 

[Bazza97]

I've really narrowed in on WHE and Hosie for goals so hopefully they can hit the scoreboard. My bets for tonight's game.

WHE and Hosie AGS $4 SB
LDU 15+ disp, Maynard 15+ disp, WHE and Hosie AGS $7 SB
WHE 2+ goals $4 SB
Hosie 2+ goals $10 BE
WHE and Hosie 2+ goals $44.75 SB

 

[Prochard123]

Sportsbet Line for Disposals for tonights match between Pies and the Roos:

Pendlebury Under/Over 24.5
Sidebottom Under/Over 23.5
Adams Unders/Over 24.5
Jed Anderson Under/Over 20.5
Jy Simpkin Under/Over 22.5
Shaun Higgins Under/Over 22.5
Dumont Under/Over 21.5

Player averages in 2020 (from Rounds 2 to 12). Now I have excluded Round 1 because I feel it is distorts the averages as both teams won in Round 1 and for Collingwood sake, the disposals in Round 1 pushed the averages up.

Averages from Round 2 to 12:
Pendlebury 22.38 (8 matches)
Sidebottom 23.43 (7 matches)
Adams 22.00 (11 matches)
Dumont 21.18 (11 matches)
Jed Anderson 19.44 (9 matches)
Simpkin 20.91 (11 matches)
Higgins 22.00 (11 matches)


So my prediction would be: Pendlebury UNDER, Sidebottom UNDER, Adams UNDER, Anderson UNDER, Simpkin UNDER, Higgins UNDER, Dumont UNDER.

Think at least 2-4 of those will go Unders.

However if the Roos are to win, reckon a good bet is : Pendlebury Under, Higgins Under.

If Collingwood are to win, a good bet is: Simpkin Under, Dumont Under, Anderson Under


Higgins has been named on the centre half forward line on the team sheet, and I fancy him to spend a bit of time in the forward line in this match, and should get a bit of time in the midfield. Hence me leaning unders towards Higgins.

Im struggling to make a case for multi-ing any of those with an over, if you do it, you do so at your own risk.

3 bets for me:

Davies-Uniacke to win Most Disposals in Group B - $10 (consisting of Maynard, Daicos, Noble, Crisp, Goldstein, Atley, Davies-Uniacke) at Sportsbet. Has been given more time in the midfield and averaged around 21 disposals per game(from 4 matches), since been included. Maynard is the threat but Im banking that the Pies will win this game, and the ball will be more in their forward line.

Sidebottom to win Most Disposals in Group A( consisting of Sidebottom, Pendlebury, Adams, Dumont, Anderson, Simpkin, Higgins, McDonald) , WHE 2+ Goals @ $23.81 Ladbrokes. Feel the only danger here is Adams, he got 30 disposals in his last game, and Sidebottom got 29.

Sidebottom to get 30+ Disposals, WHE 2+ Goals @ $24 from Neds. Just want to give myself a bit of insurance in case, Sidebottom doesn't get top disposals as mentioned from post above.

I thought u were going unders for Sidebottom?

 

[bigpapagman]

Not sure if this fits here, but WC are unbelievable value on Thursday against Richmond. $2.

 

[karaoke]

J Daicos AGS - 1.95 BE (1.50-1.75 elsewhere)
7/11 in '20

 

[karaoke]

T Adams - AGS 3.05 BE (1.83 - 2.05 elsewhere)
6/12 in '20

 

[RooTed]

Really like the under tonight and the roos line +15.5!
Just worried that as a Roos boy I might be misreading with my heart instead of head.

On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Zook]

Same game multi for tonight @$36.95 lads:

Steele Sidebottom (Collingwood) (Most Disposals - Group A)
Collingwood (-15.5) (Line)
Will Hoskin-Elliott 2+ Goals (Player Goals - Will Hoskin-Elliott

 

[NYRB]

I'd be wary of backing Overs in this match. Points wise for Collingwood, could only manage 62 points (Adelaide), 50 points (Sydney), 49 points (Freo) and 28 points against the Hawks after quarter time. (59 for the match). These 4 teams are ranked bottom 6 in the ladder as I speak.

Mihocek and Stephenson have been their leading goalscorers this season, and both aren't playing.

I thought u were going unders for Sidebottom?

If you looked at the numbers, without thinking about the game, sure unders would be the play. But i think, Sidebottom is in for a big game tonight , as other posters have mentioned.

 

[Chism]

Score level at the end of any Qtr at 9-1 on BE is getting my money tonight.

$25 on it for a return of $225 and you would be surprised how much this bet salutes from week to week.

Best thing about it is your bet is alive all game.

 

[anonymous Derik]

Anyone on the American Pie for goals?

 

[NYRB]

Anyone on the American Pie for goals?

felt like the criticism for him is pretty harsh. (Maybe because he is American he gets closer attention)

He is a dead eye dick in front of goal. 75 goals and 34 behinds.

I hope he goes well.

 

[Chism]

Anyone on the American Pie for goals?

Not unless he is playing the Tigers in a final!

 

[Geead]

Anyone on the American Pie for goals?

Nah i reckon his odds are terrible tonights, 1.37 (BE) 1.36 (SB) for AGS

Personally would avoid

 

[Zook]

Nah i reckon his odds are terrible tonights, 1.37 (BE) 1.36 (SB) for AGS

Personally would avoid

It seems they are pretty tight with all goal scoring markets these days!

 

[Prochard123]

felt like the criticism for him is pretty harsh. (Maybe because he is American he gets closer attention)

He is a dead eye dick in front of goal. 75 goals and 34 behinds.

I hope he goes well.

His significantly below average stats in Marks, Disposals and Goals are pretty bad.

And it's even worse when u consider 80% of our forward 50 entries are targeted at him.

 

[OhhDeledio]

like pendlebury o24.5 @ 1.97 PB

cleared 6/8 this year and averages 28.6 disposals vs north (number 1 ranked team for him). 33, 30, 30 in last 3 vs north.

 

[NYRB]

Just have this feeling, that Collingwood players are a bit more primed up for this game than normal. Think they see this as a bit of a non-negotiable tonight.

Collingwood are : 4 wins, 2 losses, 1 draw when there is only a single AFL fixture on a day. They thrive and being the centre of attention. Their two losses were by 2 points and 15 points this season.

A loss doesn't hurt them but a win sort of cements their spot in the 8. (As strange as it sounds)

 

[anonymous Derik]

His significantly below average stats in Marks, Disposals and Goals are pretty bad.

And it's even worse when u consider 80% of our forward 50 entries are targeted at him.

The only reason I’m remotely interested is because there will be a s**t load of forward entries going through him you’d think with the woods outs.
-$30 @ $3.25 2+
-$20 @ $10 3+ just in case

 

[OhhDeledio]

also like the pointsbet special with pendlebury and sidebottom combined 45+ @2.50 for reasons already mentioned in the thread. pendles good record vs north and sidebottom last game before he leaves the hub.

 

[wally99]

Flynn Appleby named forward pocket for the pies, if true he's $2 AGS most places. Unibet he's $5 AGS, good value there

On SM-G986B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

What happened to the behinds market on Sportsbet?

They must have got fleeced during the Brissy game.

 

[wally99]

also like the pointsbet special with pendlebury and sidebottom combined 45+ @2.50 for reasons already mentioned in the thread. pendles good record vs north and sidebottom last game before he leaves the hub.

It should win but $25 max bet isn't even worth it

On SM-G986B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[NYRB]

What happened to the behinds market on Sportsbet?

They must have got fleeced during the Brissy game.

Noticed this as well.