AFL 2020 - AFL Round 14 (no aftertiming allowed)

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md20

Debutant
Apr 24, 2020
104
109
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
There a fair amount of value bets in the H2H market this round imo.
West Coast being the absolute stand out.

But on top of that...Hawks, Bulldogs, Carlton and North all look solid $2+

On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

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GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
45,665
52,452
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
how do i get on this im unloaded my entire bankroll
Not so fast. If anything NYRB has shown us to show due diligence, looking at the last 3 weeks as a very small sample size, I will take the unders here.

u250 Posts Bankroll@$1.90
 

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5 Bucks

Team Captain
Apr 20, 2011
443
157
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Not so fast. If anything NYRB has shown us to show due diligence, looking at the last 3 weeks as a very small sample size, I will take the unders here.

u250 Posts Bankroll@$1.90
Tailed

Adding in a $300 Lynchyyyyy $7 multi to get up, ohh ok $2 three legger win, and a BloodRet meltdown when his AGS doesn't kick one in a low scoring snoozefest

$4 on BF
 

NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
3,763
4,681
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
It’s good to be back.
Dr. Said no more blood pressure tablets so long as Brayden Fiorini isn’t playing AFL.
anyway I like Levi Greenwood 15+ $2.37 -SB.
he was the same price last night and he cleared it. (1 touch in the last to finish on 15), should be better for the run after a long lay off, assumes an inside mid role and should only get more CBA’s with no Sidebottom.
20+ $6
25+ $21 for a nibble
 

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dontlimitme

Team Captain
May 20, 2016
458
704
AFL Club
GWS
It’s good to be back.
Dr. Said no more blood pressure tablets so long as Brayden Fiorini isn’t playing AFL.
anyway I like Levi Greenwood 15+ $2.37 -SB.
he was the same price last night and he cleared it. (1 touch in the last to finish on 15), should be better for the run after a long lay off, assumes an inside mid role and should only get more CBA’s with no Sidebottom.
20+ $6
25+ $21 for a nibble
i will follow you into hell with your disposal bets. tailed
 

Prochard123

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 28, 2014
5,036
3,212
AFL Club
Collingwood
Anyone interested in making a chat to combine/compare our forecasted lines on disposals/fantasy?

We can average our predictions to gauge whether bookies are overpricing or underpricing certain players, and people with a higher accuracy will have greater weighting towards the prediction.

Only reason not posting on this forum is because I know that bookies also read this forum.
 

FrankGrimes

All Australian
Jan 11, 2009
892
528
yeah nar
AFL Club
Essendon
Anyone interested in making a chat to combine/compare our forecasted lines on disposals/fantasy?

We can average our predictions to gauge whether bookies are overpricing or underpricing certain players, and people with a higher accuracy will have greater weighting towards the prediction.

Only reason not posting on this forum is because I know that bookies also read this forum.
You really think bookies jump on a forum and think oh random guy thinks blues are overpriced let’s move the line?
they move a price based on money being put on nothing more..
 

iluvparis

Hall of Famer
Apr 1, 2005
35,029
27,645
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Anyone interested in making a chat to combine/compare our forecasted lines on disposals/fantasy?

We can average our predictions to gauge whether bookies are overpricing or underpricing certain players, and people with a higher accuracy will have greater weighting towards the prediction.

Only reason not posting on this forum is because I know that bookies also read this forum.
It already exists but is never used

 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
3,903
1,476
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
May look to compile some statistics on Quarter by Quarter stats on disposals. Wouldn't have the numbers on me now but I wouldn't be surprised if that 4th quarter is when the disposals would be highest. As well as that, I reckon the last 2-3 minutes of every quarter there is usually a slowdown in the game.
 

TryAnHit

Team Captain
Mar 1, 2012
579
719
AFL Club
Adelaide
Anyone interested in making a chat to combine/compare our forecasted lines on disposals/fantasy?

We can average our predictions to gauge whether bookies are overpricing or underpricing certain players, and people with a higher accuracy will have greater weighting towards the prediction.

Only reason not posting on this forum is because I know that bookies also read this forum.
There is bascially only value in that in the early part of the season... late season lines are pretty spot on
 

Prochard123

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 28, 2014
5,036
3,212
AFL Club
Collingwood
You really think bookies jump on a forum and think oh random guy thinks blues are overpriced let’s move the line?
they move a price based on money being put on nothing more..
I don't think so, I know it.

Of course they don't move lines purely based on 1 or 2 posts. But they do use forums as a form of research, so a poster providing information that a defender has been playing with the forwards group can trigger a review of the goal scorer market.

The bookies will also need to confirm the information themselves. But do you really expect every bookie to be up to date on every player by attending all the club trainings for example?
 

ashley12

WompingRins
Jul 25, 2007
11,217
1,740
Burswood Casino
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
SA Spurs, Dallas Cowboys
Hey guys. Mug punter but might as well post my one fairly YOLO bet of the round.

WCE have announced Bailey Williams will debut. Tall ruck type. Debate now comes who he comes in for and the WCE debate about is this a game to blow off given the upcoming run of 5 day breaks.

NicNat played the highest ToG of all season on Sunday, is it because he has hit another level fitness wise or going hard because they know he has 9 days rest before playing the Saints on Tuesday.

Either way, many units on Richmond -3.5 $2 lines at Ladbrokes, with a plan to lay/middle if WCE rest a bunch of players. If they don't well, hopefully its more Hub Eagles than Optus Eagles.

Also, I will tail the Greenwood action. One midfielder who can actually be accountable defensively so should get a decent chunk of CBAs.
 

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