AFL 2020 - AFL Round 14 (no aftertiming allowed)

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dontlimitme

Team Captain
May 20, 2016
495
759
AFL Club
GWS
$50 Adams 20+/Pendle 20+/Mckay 2g+/Anderson 20+/Mcdonald 20+/Larkey 2g+ @ 20.27 Boosted (LADS)
$50 Adams 20+/Pendle 20+/Mckay AGS/Anderson 20+/Mcdonald 20+/Larkey AGS @ 4.37 Boosted (LADS)
 

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Atavistic

Premiership Player
Jan 22, 2008
4,994
3,661
Hobart
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Team Coco
tomorrow piesVblues, going on the same method that helped get a riccardi win - picking thomas just because hes listed fwd pocket.
1.5u thomas ags @2.05 b365
0.7u thomas 2g+ @8.50 Be
0.3u thomas 3g+ @23 sb
0.1u thomas 4g+ @101 sb
unsure on WHE for goals as mihocek and stephenson are back.

and martin/gibbons for blues.
1u martin 2g+ @4.50 sb
0.3u martin 3g+ @14 sb
1u gibbons 2g+ @7.5 be
0.3u gibbons 3g+ @18 sb
0.5u sgm martin ags, gibbons ags @3.39 lads

Dont know much about Marc Pittonet listed FF for blues - i think the midfield battle is even with no greenwood or sidebottom so blues could get it to their fwd line often enough.. is Pittonet backup ruck/fwd? and de Konig main ruck? or other way around? any thoughts on which might play more fwd?
the current odds-- pittonet ags @ 4.75 b365, 2g+ @20 sb, 3g+ @101 sb
-- de konnig ags @ 2.33 b365, 2g+ @7.50 sb, 3g+ @36 sb
Tailed you on Thomas.
 

Johanpetro

Club Legend
Jan 3, 2008
1,273
2,220
Apollo Bay
AFL Club
Geelong
Dont know much about Marc Pittonet listed FF for blues - i think the midfield battle is even with no greenwood or sidebottom so blues could get it to their fwd line often enough.. is Pittonet backup ruck/fwd? and de Konig main ruck? or other way around? any thoughts on which might play more fwd?
the current odds-- pittonet ags @ 4.75 b365, 2g+ @20 sb, 3g+ @101 sb
-- de konnig ags @ 2.33 b365, 2g+ @7.50 sb, 3g+ @36 sb
can any Blues fans shed some light on Pittonet? Named at FF paying $41 for 1st goal,$20 for 2+ goals at $101 for 3+.... are these odds justified and will he even start/ play forward at all? Thanks
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
4,227
1,690
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
Be wary of backing goalscorers in the Pies v Blues match. Last 3 day matches starting at 3:35pm at GABBA, totals have been : 98, 101 and 60 points.

The reasons why they were low scoring

1) Sydney v Richmond- Swans play ugly, slow tempo football. Both teams were inaccurate that day with 7 goals 18 behinds
2) Brisbane v Saints- Brisbane were inaccurate that day with 6 goals 14 behinds
3) Saints v Bombers- Bombers were without a couple of their big key forwards that day in Stringer, Daniher, Laverde, Cale Hooker and small forward Irving Mosquito. Bombers were forced to play a slow tempo style without big targets that day.
 
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Bazza97

Premiership Player
Nov 17, 2016
3,840
3,846
Melbourne
AFL Club
Melbourne
tomorrow piesVblues, going on the same method that helped get a riccardi win - picking thomas just because hes listed fwd pocket.
1.5u thomas ags @2.05 b365
0.7u thomas 2g+ @8.50 Be
0.3u thomas 3g+ @23 sb
0.1u thomas 4g+ @101 sb
unsure on WHE for goals as mihocek and stephenson are back.

and martin/gibbons for blues.
1u martin 2g+ @4.50 sb
0.3u martin 3g+ @14 sb
1u gibbons 2g+ @7.5 be
0.3u gibbons 3g+ @18 sb
0.5u sgm martin ags, gibbons ags @3.39 lads

Dont know much about Marc Pittonet listed FF for blues - i think the midfield battle is even with no greenwood or sidebottom so blues could get it to their fwd line often enough.. is Pittonet backup ruck/fwd? and de Konig main ruck? or other way around? any thoughts on which might play more fwd?
the current odds-- pittonet ags @ 4.75 b365, 2g+ @20 sb, 3g+ @101 sb
-- de konnig ags @ 2.33 b365, 2g+ @7.50 sb, 3g+ @36 sb
Yeah I've decided to get on De Koning and Pittonet for goals too. Had a look at the CBA for the two games they've played together, Pittonet was the ruckman at 12 CBA and De Koning 10 CBA in round 11. Round 13, De Koning was at 10 CBA and Pittonet just 5 CBA. If I had to choose one of them for goals, I prefer De Koning, even if he's in the ruck more than Pittonet. I think De Koning can get a goal today, has kicked a behind in rounds 11 and 13 when Pittonet was in the side so think he can get opportunities to score. I like that De Koning got three contested marks last week as well. Pittonet has only kicked 1 behind this year, but because he's sharing the ruck duties with De Koning and has never kicked a goal before (lol), I'm getting on him today. Does average around 1 contested mark a game, so hoping he can use that when he's forward.
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
4,227
1,690
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
Sportsbet Line Disposals:

Murphy Under/Over 22.5
Cripps Under/Over 23.5
Docherty Under/Over 18.5
Sam Walsh Under/Over 20.5
Crisp Under/Over 18.5
Pendlebury Under/Over 24.5
Adams Under/Over 25.5

Round 2- Round 13 Disposal Averages:
Murphy 19.00 (11 matches)
Cripps 20.91 (11 matches)
Docherty 19.18 (11 matches)
Walsh 18.81 (11 matches)
Setterfield 15.45 (11 matches)
Curnow 19.45 (11 matches)
Martin 14.10 (10 matches)
Simpson 14.27 (11 matches)


Crisp 17.77 (12 matches)
Pendlebury 23.20 (9 matches)
Adams 23.00 (12 matches)
Noble 16.35 (10 matches)
Maynard 20.15 (12 matches)
Daicos 16.58 (11 matches)
Tom Phillips 16.00 (12 matches)
Mayne 15.18 (10 matches)

Collingwood is a team that plays for possies and their midfield is stronger on paper, even without Sidebottom. Carlton disposals averages set by Sportsbet is higher than their Round 2-Round 13 averages. Docherty is the one that stands out for overs but the rest should be unders in my opinion. Chris Mayne is one of the best taggers in the game and will nullify Patty Cripps today. I do fancy Collingwood to get a few cheap possies late in the match as well. (refer to the game against North earlier this week)

Gone for a SGM:

Disposals
Pendlebury 25+
Adams 26+
Maynard 20+
Daicos 15+
Crisp 15+
Grundy 15+
Noble 15+

@ $22

also 3 legged SGM
Mayne 15+
Darcy Moore 15+
Docherty 19+

@ $6
 

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benji21

All Australian
Apr 2, 2016
812
500
Hong Kong
AFL Club
Fremantle
Gotta have a bit on Carlton today, they are up and about at the moment.
Pies are a team much like Freo that just can't seem to put sides away when they have momentum. All it'll take is 1 good quarter from Carlton.

Also on Stephenson 1st, 2nd, 3rd goal scorer at 4 bucks.
 

mouncey2franklin

Premiership Player
Jun 16, 2018
4,363
6,200
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Anybody think this game is going above 117 points? Somehow I doubt it.

I could see this going <105, maybe even <100.

Last time these teams played, some dude called Phillips kicked two goals.

Looking at the team sheets, I wonder if he will be spending time forward this week.

I like Philips AGS, Newnes AGS, total points < 117.5 @ 14.75

Several goalscorer multis missed out by one goal yesterday, every one of them cost me 10 units.

I'm in a punter's death spiral, twirling and twirling towards the bottom of the drain.

Still absolutely spewing I missed out on Riccardo yesterday.

I'm so on tilt I've lowered my unit sizes until I regain composure.

Awesome work to Atavistic and others who got on Riccardo. Looks to me to be the bet of the season so far.
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
4,227
1,690
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
this is a challenging game to predict unders/overs. I do fancy the teams to get out of the blocks in the 1st quarter and I wouldnt be surprised if the 1st qtr is the highest scoring quarter before the Pies slow down the game in the 2nd half.

Pies haven't blown teams out after quarter time this season. Good teams under this shortened format, are expected to win at least 3 of the 4 quarters.

Collingwood Stats 2020:

1st Qtr: 8 Wins, 2 Draws , 3 Losses
2nd Qtr: 5 wins, 8 Losses
3rd Qtr: 6 wins, 7 Losses
4th Qtr: 6 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses


Not sure if its a fitness thing or something but they haven't been as dominant as the results suggest.
 

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