AFL 2020 - AFL Round 17 (no aftertiming allowed)

Remove this Banner Ad

(Log in to remove this ad.)

benji21

All Australian
Apr 2, 2016
765
463
Hong Kong
AFL Club
Fremantle
Yep on saints as well, both are off a 4 day break but saints had the by before that. Eagles have gone 4/5/4 it has to be taking its toll. Not to mention all the outs, and the fact they seem to not like QLD.
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,947
1,319
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Yep i'm all over Saints here as well. Taking a big position then going to middle as I imagine the line will move once teams come out. WC midfield will be without Shuey, Yeo, Redden, Sheed and Jetta who probably would have played wing. They're already playing a few youngsters / depth players and 3 more of them will come in. The kicker might be that they might have planned to manage some players ie McGovern. Hurn and Nic Nat missed last week are there any players this week that could miss due to the high playing load?

Brutal schedule for WC. You would think the bye prior will help StK on the 4 day break. 4th qtr stats would also indicate WC aren't the fittest side going around.

The only concern is StK aren't travelling all that well themselves and probs the weakest team in the 8.
 

Spacedog

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 2, 2016
6,484
10,744
AFL Club
Richmond
Yep on saints as well, both are off a 4 day break but saints had the by before that. Eagles have gone 4/5/4 it has to be taking its toll. Not to mention all the outs, and the fact they seem to not like QLD.
Add in the wet weather which west coast hate and it's the best bet you'll find all year imo
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,947
1,319
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
StK to win and King to kick a goal $5 on Betdeluxe. Normally they do these promo's on underdogs but this has been flipped since the BF board jumped on.
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,947
1,319
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Yep i'm all over Saints here as well. Taking a big position then going to middle as I imagine the line will move once teams come out. WC midfield will be without Shuey, Yeo, Redden, Sheed and Jetta who probably would have played wing. They're already playing a few youngsters / depth players and 3 more of them will come in. The kicker might be that they might have planned to manage some players ie McGovern. Hurn and Nic Nat missed last week are there any players this week that could miss due to the high playing load?

Brutal schedule for WC. You would think the bye prior will help StK on the 4 day break. 4th qtr stats would also indicate WC aren't the fittest side going around.

The only concern is StK aren't travelling all that well themselves and probs the weakest team in the 8.
Plonked 13 or 14 units on StK +4.5 and it's now out to -5.5. I reckon it keeps going once teams are announced. Simpson talked about playing 12 defenders and turning some into makeshift mids.

I think the line keeps going to -8.5 or so. Then how much to middle...

Also 1u 4th qtr line, 0.5u 13+ and 33+ both 4th.
 

srobbo

Hall of Famer
Jan 31, 2012
30,014
18,541
patterson lakes
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Boston Celtics
Stk are a trap here imo. Struggled to get over Hawthorn & lost to Melb the week before!....hardly form to justify a a big go here. Eagles still have enough quality around the ground & smarts to get the 4pts here. NN & Hurn big in’s & still have Kelly & Gaff through the mids.

I’ll wait to game time & jump all over the line which hopefully approaches +8-10pts.
 

Lyyynnnchy

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 10, 2007
9,236
4,560
London, UK
AFL Club
West Coast
Stk are a trap here imo. Struggled to get over Hawthorn & lost to Melb the week before!....hardly form to justify a a big go here. Eagles still have enough quality around the ground & smarts to get the 4pts here. NN & Hurn big in’s & still have Kelly & Gaff through the mids.

I’ll wait to game time & jump all over the line which hopefully approaches +8-10pts.
Games won in the middle

Kelly
Gaff (useless at centre bounces)

O’Neil (3 games)
Brayshaw (Debut)
Ainsworth (5 games, horrible)

The rest will be makeshift. Not even entirely confident Naitanui plays
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
3,880
1,444
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
If the game was played at Metricon, I reckon Saints now $1.71 favourites would be right.

At GABBA, Eagles play better than they do at Metricon.

The Eagles injury list is starting to mount as I speak and it's a game I will probably ignore.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Bazza97

Premiership Player
Nov 17, 2016
3,783
3,790
Melbourne
AFL Club
Melbourne
I'm getting on a few of the small forwards tomorrow.

Single bets:
Hind AGS $2.50 PointsBet
Petruccelle AGS $2.25 NEDS
Lonie AGS $2 PointsBet

And a sneaky multi
Hind AGS, Petruccelle AGS, Lonie AGS & Butler AGS $14.48 boosted to $17.18 NEDS
 

Bazza97

Premiership Player
Nov 17, 2016
3,783
3,790
Melbourne
AFL Club
Melbourne
Looking ahead a bit further, think the Geelong v Richmond game is going to have rain at Metricon as well. Anyway, tipping Dangerfield and Martin will have big games and I'm hoping they can impact the scoreboard as well. I've got single bets on Dangerfield AGS $2.50 SB and Martin AGS $1.80 SB.
 

TheRoosterGuy

Draftee
Aug 29, 2020
5
9
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
I hate the site but BetDeluxe - Max King to score Anytime + Saints to win ($50 at $5)

Getting about ~$2.15 when you combine these at Sports, TAB, Points. Looks like the promo price was meant to be factored into Saints being an underdog.
 

squeaky1000

Senior List
Apr 30, 2018
219
291
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Don't mind the Crows with a 13 point head start against the Blues. Playing away from home is a negative but they are finally showing some signs and should be up and about to claim another scalp. Blues form over the past few games has been pretty average and would expect the Crows to take it up to them through the midefield
 

NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
3,727
4,629
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Don't mind the Crows with a 13 point head start against the Blues. Playing away from home is a negative but they are finally showing some signs and should be up and about to claim another scalp. Blues form over the past few games has been pretty average and would expect the Crows to take it up to them through the midefield
The only concern I have is their desire for pick 1. North are going full blitzkreig with the tanking and if they get smashed in the 2 games left and crows beat Carlton they might lose 1st pick.
 

srobbo

Hall of Famer
Jan 31, 2012
30,014
18,541
patterson lakes
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Boston Celtics
Games won in the middle

Kelly
Gaff (useless at centre bounces)

O’Neil (3 games)
Brayshaw (Debut)
Ainsworth (5 games, horrible)

The rest will be makeshift. Not even entirely confident Naitanui plays
Good thing you’re only coming up against a midfield of plodders like Stk then.

Steele > Kelly
Ross > Ainsworth

Billings > Gaff

I’d back you to break even in midfield & you’re far better around the ground. Just a better drilled side.

Have some faith in your side man😆
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,947
1,319
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Stk are a trap here imo. Struggled to get over Hawthorn & lost to Melb the week before!....hardly form to justify a a big go here. Eagles still have enough quality around the ground & smarts to get the 4pts here. NN & Hurn big in’s & still have Kelly & Gaff through the mids.

I’ll wait to game time & jump all over the line which hopefully approaches +8-10pts.
There are massive red flags to backing WC - 4 day break, tough schedule, wet weather, no midfield...however, the game against WB is the way they will go. Try and absorb the inside 50 differential with a good backline, then try to get StK on the counter with their potent forward line. Syd does this really well. Keep it close and desperate. But how can their game plan function in the wet? Darling and Kennedy rely on marks. McGovern relies on intercept marking and the whole team likes the kick and mark game. If they get behind by 2 or 3 goals they let this one go.

If I was StK I would tag Gaff (like WB did) and get Steele to play Kelly tight in close. Would make it impossible for them to generate any midfield drive.
 

Lyyynnnchy

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 10, 2007
9,236
4,560
London, UK
AFL Club
West Coast
Good thing you’re only coming up against a midfield of plodders like Stk then.

Steele > Kelly
Ross > Ainsworth

Billings > Gaff

I’d back you to break even in midfield & you’re far better around the ground. Just a better drilled side.

Have some faith in your side man😆
I disagree And going by how much the market has adjusted id say 99% of punters do also
 

Top Bottom