AFL 2020 - AFL Round 17 (no aftertiming allowed)

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mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,947
1,319
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Seems completely possible, so I don't get why the Saints are still 1.08 for the eight, and $8.00 to miss it. I have a 1550 return if they make it, sacrifice 200 and hedge ? Seems clear hey
I'd hedge but i'm also a bit of a pussy with that sort of thing.

Guaranteed result seems better than having to rely on teams like the Saints or Dees.
 

Newborn

Draftee
Sep 14, 2020
18
9
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
I'd hedge but i'm also a bit of a pussy with that sort of thing.

Guaranteed result seems better than having to rely on teams like the Saints or Dees.
Well that's it hey, cant pick the form.

No cashout offer also, as i put the multiplier on it.
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
3,880
1,445
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
I think I was being too unfair to Essendon in the last game of the season

I reckon a fair price for the Demons is $1.59 v $2.68 Bombers


So a 4 legged multi:GWS win, Collingwood to win 1 of their next 2 games, Demons to win and Bulldogs to win would pay $5.12

Saints to lose $2.00
Collingwood to win 1 of their next 2 $1.13
Demons to win $1.59
Bulldogs to win $1.42

2.00 x 1.13 x 1.59 x 1.42= $5.12


$7.00 or $8.00 still decent in my book.
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
3,880
1,445
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
^^^ As I speak

Sportsbet have released odds for Round 17 :

Saints to lose $2.10
Demons to win $1.48
Bulldogs to win $1.44
Collingwood to win tonight over Gold Coast $1.25


which is paying $5.59
 
Last edited:

squeaky1000

Senior List
Apr 30, 2018
219
291
AFL Club
Hawthorn
SGM: Pies h2h, Treloar Pendles 20+, Crisp Greenwood 15+ $2.50 lads

Also a middle available on Greenwood disposals
19.5 lads/sb
21.5 pointsbet
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
3,880
1,445
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
you guys may be wondering, how i got odds of Collingwood to be around $1.13 to win 1 of their next 2 games. Presuming they lose the last 2 games, just go 1/0.12= $8.33. Since TAB and Sportsbet odds have a margin of some sort in favour of the bookies, $8 seems a more realistic price for them to lose both games.

1600053533405.png
 

ShaunWDT

Club Legend
Nov 18, 2013
2,450
3,872
AFL Club
Geelong
Not much really stands out to me this game so I'm going to stick with what is known.

A. Treloar Most Disp. Group A - $2.45 (Lads)

Has done this 4/6 games this year with an average of 29 disposals a game.

With a smaller stake on Pendlebury in the same market @ $4.50

On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app
Isn't great value for a bloke who hasn't played in 7 weeks for mine, Adams and Pendles could easily get up.
 

dontlimitme

Team Captain
May 20, 2016
458
704
AFL Club
GWS
like Crisp Most Disposals Grp 2 at 3.75 (SB)

had most disposals for the entire game in last two pies games, and gold coast don't seem to get huge disposal numbers.
 

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GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
45,631
52,398
AFL Club
Adelaide
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¯\_(ツ)_/¯
you guys may be wondering, how i got odds of Collingwood to be around $1.13 to win 1 of their next 2 games. Presuming they lose the last 2 games, just go 1/0.12= $8.33. Since TAB and Sportsbet odds have a margin of some sort in favour of the bookies, $8 seems a more realistic price for them to lose both games.

View attachment 961111
Whether the Pies beat the Power or not, is not independent events. There is a relationship between the Pies winning/losing against the Suns and Pies winning/losing against the Power.

The odds of the Pies beating the Power, will shift if they beat the Suns and vice versa.

You have assigned the same probabilities to the Pies/Power game, regardless of the Pies/Suns result tonight. That IMO is wrong.
 

demon_fanatic

Club Legend
May 8, 2006
2,310
645
bayswater
AFL Club
Melbourne
Whether the Pies beat the Power or not, is not independent events. There is a relationship between the Pies winning/losing against the Suns and Pies winning/losing against the Power.

The odds of the Pies beating the Power, will shift if they beat the Suns and vice versa.

You have assigned the same probabilities to the Pies/Power game, regardless of the Pies/Suns result tonight. That IMO is wrong.
Gunnna smash the pies to beat power even if they somehow fluff lines tonight, power may rest a few and as much as they'd like to knock pies out of finals, being off 5 percent mentally is huge,if pies lose tonight I rekn they'd somehow still start fav next week
 

mouncey2franklin

Premiership Player
Jun 16, 2018
4,122
5,779
AFL Club
North Melbourne
It's a shame Collingwood's % doesn't matter. I could see them destroying the Suns if they needed to boost % for finals.

Instead I foresee a boring, low-scoring eyesore of a match, with no heat in it as soon as Collingwood have a comfortable lead.

In saying that, I like < 115.5, Coll win, Thomas AGS @ 4.50 (Lads)

And < 116.5, Coll win, Thomas 2+ @ 10 (SB)
 

GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
45,631
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¯\_(ツ)_/¯
It's a shame Collingwood's % doesn't matter. I could see them destroying the Suns if they needed to boost % for finals.

Instead I foresee a boring, low-scoring eyesore of a match, with no heat in it as soon as Collingwood have a comfortable lead.

In saying that, I like < 115.5, Coll win, Thomas AGS @ 4.50 (Lads)

And < 116.5, Coll win, Thomas 2+ @ 10 (SB)
Good point. I forgot about that.

When mookieb mentioned he may hedge, this would be the reason.

Pies may just sit on a 3-4 goal lead.

May be one of those sh*t matches, where the Pies just bounce it around from player to player once that lead is established, why take a mindless risk to smash a team.

Goal tonight is to win thereby locking in finals. How they win is irrelevant. No one will care if they smash the Suns its an irrelevant outcome.
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
3,880
1,445
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
Good point. I forgot about that.

When mookieb mentioned he may hedge, this would be the reason.

Pies may just sit on a 3-4 goal lead.

May be one of those sh*t matches, where the Pies just bounce it around from player to player once that lead is established, why take a mindless risk to smash a team.

Goal tonight is to win thereby locking in finals. How they win is irrelevant. No one will care if they smash the Suns its an irrelevant outcome.
If you look closely at the way Collingwood have played this season, in their wins they haven’t exactly smashed teams. Hoping it’s an entertaining Monday night game with end to end goals. Gold Coast May be able to play with a bit more free will given they have not much on the line.
 

GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
45,631
52,398
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¯\_(ツ)_/¯
If you look closely at the way Collingwood have played this season, in their wins they haven’t exactly smashed teams. Hoping it’s an entertaining Monday night game with end to end goals. Gold Coast May be able to play with a bit more free will given they have not much on the line.
Pies have an average winning margin of 4+ which is what the Suns ave losing margin is.

I still think the Pies will cover the line that mookieb took.
 

NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
3,727
4,629
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
tiny little bit on both Greenwood & Varcoe FGS $41 at TAB
Both named starting forward. Varcoe has been brought in as a pressure forward for tonight, Greenwood more of a rotating mid-fwd.
Both over the odds.
Edit: Levi Greenwood
 

Ohh Ok

All Australian
Jul 31, 2018
832
974
AFL Club
Adelaide
3u Pies 1-39 $1.83 (Sb)
2.5u Miller over 18.5 $1.89 (SB)
0.5u Grundy AGS $5 (TAB)

Pies games have gone under more often than not this season (don’t have number in front of me) and with players returning from injury and percentage not being important for the Pies I can’t see them winning 40% at all.

Miller has gone 9/14 on this one and has been on a down run of form recently which has seen this one drop down. Still their number one ball winner. Good opportunity to bounce back tonight.

Grundy hasn’t hit the scoreboard as much this season as recent years. Quite often highlighted has been the lack of height for the Suns defence. Decent price on offer tonight.
 

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