- Sep 14, 2020
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
I'd hedge but i'm also a bit of a pussy with that sort of thing.Seems completely possible, so I don't get why the Saints are still 1.08 for the eight, and $8.00 to miss it. I have a 1550 return if they make it, sacrifice 200 and hedge ? Seems clear hey
Isn't great value for a bloke who hasn't played in 7 weeks for mine, Adams and Pendles could easily get up.Not much really stands out to me this game so I'm going to stick with what is known.
A. Treloar Most Disp. Group A - $2.45 (Lads)
Has done this 4/6 games this year with an average of 29 disposals a game.
With a smaller stake on Pendlebury in the same market @ $4.50
On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app
Whether the Pies beat the Power or not, is not independent events. There is a relationship between the Pies winning/losing against the Suns and Pies winning/losing against the Power.you guys may be wondering, how i got odds of Collingwood to be around $1.13 to win 1 of their next 2 games. Presuming they lose the last 2 games, just go 1/0.12= $8.33. Since TAB and Sportsbet odds have a margin of some sort in favour of the bookies, $8 seems a more realistic price for them to lose both games.
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Gunnna smash the pies to beat power even if they somehow fluff lines tonight, power may rest a few and as much as they'd like to knock pies out of finals, being off 5 percent mentally is huge,if pies lose tonight I rekn they'd somehow still start fav next weekWhether the Pies beat the Power or not, is not independent events. There is a relationship between the Pies winning/losing against the Suns and Pies winning/losing against the Power.
The odds of the Pies beating the Power, will shift if they beat the Suns and vice versa.
You have assigned the same probabilities to the Pies/Power game, regardless of the Pies/Suns result tonight. That IMO is wrong.
Good point. I forgot about that.It's a shame Collingwood's % doesn't matter. I could see them destroying the Suns if they needed to boost % for finals.
Instead I foresee a boring, low-scoring eyesore of a match, with no heat in it as soon as Collingwood have a comfortable lead.
In saying that, I like < 115.5, Coll win, Thomas AGS @ 4.50 (Lads)
And < 116.5, Coll win, Thomas 2+ @ 10 (SB)
If you look closely at the way Collingwood have played this season, in their wins they haven’t exactly smashed teams. Hoping it’s an entertaining Monday night game with end to end goals. Gold Coast May be able to play with a bit more free will given they have not much on the line.Good point. I forgot about that.
When mookieb mentioned he may hedge, this would be the reason.
Pies may just sit on a 3-4 goal lead.
May be one of those sh*t matches, where the Pies just bounce it around from player to player once that lead is established, why take a mindless risk to smash a team.
Goal tonight is to win thereby locking in finals. How they win is irrelevant. No one will care if they smash the Suns its an irrelevant outcome.
Pies have an average winning margin of 4+ which is what the Suns ave losing margin is.If you look closely at the way Collingwood have played this season, in their wins they haven’t exactly smashed teams. Hoping it’s an entertaining Monday night game with end to end goals. Gold Coast May be able to play with a bit more free will given they have not much on the line.