balmainforever
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AFL 2020 - AFL Round 17 (no aftertiming allowed)
- Thread starter balmainforever
- Start date
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- Dec 9, 2018
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Give me that $2.05 odds for Saints. We have Redden (our best mid v Dogs), Sheed (another mid), Hutchins and Ah Chee out injured. Should've lost by over 5 goals to the Doggies if they could actually kick straight.
I like Cats, Saints due to Eagles outs and Freo over North.
Surely North are in full tank by now, Freo at 1.50 seems value?
Surely North are in full tank by now, Freo at 1.50 seems value?
Yep i'm all over Saints here as well. Taking a big position then going to middle as I imagine the line will move once teams come out. WC midfield will be without Shuey, Yeo, Redden, Sheed and Jetta who probably would have played wing. They're already playing a few youngsters / depth players and 3 more of them will come in. The kicker might be that they might have planned to manage some players ie McGovern. Hurn and Nic Nat missed last week are there any players this week that could miss due to the high playing load?
Brutal schedule for WC. You would think the bye prior will help StK on the 4 day break. 4th qtr stats would also indicate WC aren't the fittest side going around.
The only concern is StK aren't travelling all that well themselves and probs the weakest team in the 8.
Brutal schedule for WC. You would think the bye prior will help StK on the 4 day break. 4th qtr stats would also indicate WC aren't the fittest side going around.
The only concern is StK aren't travelling all that well themselves and probs the weakest team in the 8.
Add in the wet weather which west coast hate and it's the best bet you'll find all year imo
Going BBBBIIIGGGGGG on St Kilda 40+
WC decimated
WC decimated
Plonked 13 or 14 units on StK +4.5 and it's now out to -5.5. I reckon it keeps going once teams are announced. Simpson talked about playing 12 defenders and turning some into makeshift mids.
I think the line keeps going to -8.5 or so. Then how much to middle...
Also 1u 4th qtr line, 0.5u 13+ and 33+ both 4th.
Stk are a trap here imo. Struggled to get over Hawthorn & lost to Melb the week before!....hardly form to justify a a big go here. Eagles still have enough quality around the ground & smarts to get the 4pts here. NN & Hurn big in’s & still have Kelly & Gaff through the mids.
I’ll wait to game time & jump all over the line which hopefully approaches +8-10pts.
I’ll wait to game time & jump all over the line which hopefully approaches +8-10pts.
Games won in the middle
Kelly
Gaff (useless at centre bounces)
O’Neil (3 games)
Brayshaw (Debut)
Ainsworth (5 games, horrible)
The rest will be makeshift. Not even entirely confident Naitanui plays
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If the game was played at Metricon, I reckon Saints now $1.71 favourites would be right.
At GABBA, Eagles play better than they do at Metricon.
The Eagles injury list is starting to mount as I speak and it's a game I will probably ignore.
At GABBA, Eagles play better than they do at Metricon.
The Eagles injury list is starting to mount as I speak and it's a game I will probably ignore.
- Dec 9, 2018
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Showers in the evening tomorrow for Saints Eagles with 5-10mm expected. Current points total of 113.5 looks too high in this regard
I'm getting on a few of the small forwards tomorrow.
Single bets:
Hind AGS $2.50 PointsBet
Petruccelle AGS $2.25 NEDS
Lonie AGS $2 PointsBet
And a sneaky multi
Hind AGS, Petruccelle AGS, Lonie AGS & Butler AGS $14.48 boosted to $17.18 NEDS
Single bets:
Hind AGS $2.50 PointsBet
Petruccelle AGS $2.25 NEDS
Lonie AGS $2 PointsBet
And a sneaky multi
Hind AGS, Petruccelle AGS, Lonie AGS & Butler AGS $14.48 boosted to $17.18 NEDS
Looking ahead a bit further, think the Geelong v Richmond game is going to have rain at Metricon as well. Anyway, tipping Dangerfield and Martin will have big games and I'm hoping they can impact the scoreboard as well. I've got single bets on Dangerfield AGS $2.50 SB and Martin AGS $1.80 SB.
2u saints -5.5 lads @2 lads
1u Lonie Ags @2 pb
1u petracelli ags @2.25 lads
1u Kennedy Ags into Allen Ags @2.97 lads boosted
1u Lonie Ags @2 pb
1u petracelli ags @2.25 lads
1u Kennedy Ags into Allen Ags @2.97 lads boosted
TheRoosterGuy
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- Aug 29, 2020
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I hate the site but BetDeluxe - Max King to score Anytime + Saints to win ($50 at $5)
Getting about ~$2.15 when you combine these at Sports, TAB, Points. Looks like the promo price was meant to be factored into Saints being an underdog.
Getting about ~$2.15 when you combine these at Sports, TAB, Points. Looks like the promo price was meant to be factored into Saints being an underdog.
squeaky1000
Team Captain
- Apr 30, 2018
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Don't mind the Crows with a 13 point head start against the Blues. Playing away from home is a negative but they are finally showing some signs and should be up and about to claim another scalp. Blues form over the past few games has been pretty average and would expect the Crows to take it up to them through the midefield
- Mar 27, 2018
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The only concern I have is their desire for pick 1. North are going full blitzkreig with the tanking and if they get smashed in the 2 games left and crows beat Carlton they might lose 1st pick.
Good thing you’re only coming up against a midfield of plodders like Stk then.
Steele > Kelly
Ross > Ainsworth
Billings > Gaff
I’d back you to break even in midfield & you’re far better around the ground. Just a better drilled side.
Have some faith in your side man
Totals down to 109.5 now from 113.5, hopefully slides lower so I can middle it
There are massive red flags to backing WC - 4 day break, tough schedule, wet weather, no midfield...however, the game against WB is the way they will go. Try and absorb the inside 50 differential with a good backline, then try to get StK on the counter with their potent forward line. Syd does this really well. Keep it close and desperate. But how can their game plan function in the wet? Darling and Kennedy rely on marks. McGovern relies on intercept marking and the whole team likes the kick and mark game. If they get behind by 2 or 3 goals they let this one go.
If I was StK I would tag Gaff (like WB did) and get Steele to play Kelly tight in close. Would make it impossible for them to generate any midfield drive.
Since I'm not betting on as many player markets tonight, think I'll jump on the Saints as well and the $2 lines. Saints -6.5 $2 NEDS
Good thing you’re only coming up against a midfield of plodders like Stk then.
Steele > Kelly
Ross > Ainsworth
Billings > Gaff
I’d back you to break even in midfield & you’re far better around the ground. Just a better drilled side.
Have some faith in your side man
I disagree And going by how much the market has adjusted id say 99% of punters do also
