AFL 2020 - AFL Round 17 (no aftertiming allowed)

[md20]

Not much really stands out to me this game so I'm going to stick with what is known.

A. Treloar Most Disp. Group A - $2.45 (Lads)

Has done this 4/6 games this year with an average of 29 disposals a game.

With a smaller stake on Pendlebury in the same market @ $4.50

On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Surely Pies come out and smack GC after their bye and 2 guns back in side.

AGS on Lads are stingiest I’ve seen.

I like Treloar 30+ @ $2.55 and 35+ @ $6, Lads. Got 42 against them last year.

De Goey fresh and to tear them apart. Odds are horrible so had a little on 3+, 4+, 5+, 6+ on Lads.

Corbett showed a bit last week so AGS @ $2.10 and 2+ $8 on SB.

 

[Robo87]

1u tailing De Goey 15+ @1.91 sb
1u Thomas ags @2 pb
1u Daicos ags @1.87 b365

 

[Newborn]

Noob alert! Hey guys, Apologies if not the best thread, but been following this one and only just registered this morning as a member.

Can someone break down the Saints scenario now to make the eight, if they lose etc what has to happen for them to fall out. Have a nice 7 leg futures multi thats ultimately pending on them for the return.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Understand where your coming from. Buckley has tended to play players out of position . eg Stephenson has spent time in midfield this season, Elliott in midfield.......they are a tricky team to predict.

Noob alert! Hey guys, Apologies if not the best thread, but been following this one and only just registered this morning as a member.

Can someone break down the Saints scenario now to make the eight, if they lose etc what has to happen for them to fall out. Have a nice 7 leg futures multi thats ultimately pending on them for the return.

Think Dogs need to beat Freo and dees beat Essendon by at least 5 goals to make up the percentage if Saints lose

 

[Newborn]

Seems completely possible, so I don't get why the Saints are still 1.08 for the eight, and $8.00 to miss it. I have a 1550 return if they make it, sacrifice 200 and hedge ? Seems clear hey

 

[iluvparis]

Seems completely possible, so I don't get why the Saints are still 1.08 for the eight, and $8.00 to miss it. I have a 1550 return if they make it, sacrifice 200 and hedge ? Seems clear hey

Whats the all up price on the individual results happening?

 

[NYRB]

Noob alert! Hey guys, Apologies if not the best thread, but been following this one and only just registered this morning as a member.

Can someone break down the Saints scenario now to make the eight, if they lose etc what has to happen for them to fall out. Have a nice 7 leg futures multi thats ultimately pending on them for the return.

For the Saints to Miss the Finals:

Scenario 1
* Saints LOSE against GWS
* Collingwood WIN 1 of 2 matches against Gold Coast or Port Adelaide
* Bulldogs WIN against Freo
* Melbourne WIN against Essendon

Scenario 2
* If the Saints LOSE against GWS by roughly 8 goals or more (a score of say Saints 50-101 GWS, would mean GWS overtake them on the ladder)
* 2 of the 3 teams win at least 1 of the following games: Collingwood WIN 1 of their 2 games, Bulldogs WIN against Freo, Melbourne WIN against Essendon



(PS: A Saints draw all but qualifies them for the finals. )

 

[Newborn]

Whats the all up price on the individual results happening?

7 legs placed couple months ago, Saints were 2.10, everything looks set, total odds 14.81 with a multiplier on.

 

[Newborn]

For the Saints to Miss the Finals:

Scenario 1
* Saints LOSE against GWS
* Collingwood WIN 1 of 2 matches against Gold Coast or Port Adelaide
* Bulldogs WIN against Freo
* Melbourne WIN against Essendon

Scenario 2
* If the Saints LOSE against GWS by roughly 8 goals or more (a score of say Saints 50-101 GWS, would mean GWS overtake them on the ladder)
* 2 of the 3 teams win at least 1 of the following games: Collingwood WIN 1 of their 2 games, Bulldogs WIN against Freo, Melbourne WIN against Essendon



(PS: A Saints draw all but qualifies them for the finals. )

So would u hedge or ride it out ? I'm already bald as it is.

 

[Newborn]

Sorry guys didn't mean to hammer the thread with my dribble on my first day.
Been following the weekly threads for a few weeks now, some handy info here.

Those scenarios seem likely to me, I don't get the odds thats all.

 

[NYRB]

In Scenario 1 case


Saints v GWS is a 50 50 game
Collingwood should be an underdog against the number 1 ranked Port team. But Port may look to play a 2nd string team or a 'rested team'. Id say that would be a 60 40 game in favour of Port
Bulldogs should be a 70% chance of beating Freo
Melbourne should also be about a 70% chance of beating the Bombers

Predicting the odds in the future, reckon for that to happen its roughly around $4.60 for the Saints to bow out of the finals race, given they lose to the Giants by under 8 goals.

 

[NYRB]

Reckon $8 is a bit big on the Saints there. I've taken a nibble on that, thanks for the spot Newborn.

 

[Newborn]

View attachment 960981


Reckon $8 is a bit big on the Saints there. I've taken a nibble on that, thanks for the spot Newborn.

Cheers mate, thanks for the breakdown.

I maybe slap 200 on it and sit back relaxed.

 

[NYRB]

an important factor also, is Melbourne play on the Saturday, and the Saints play on Friday. So Melbourne in a way have a bit more control over their destiny.


for Melbourne to overtake the Saints on the ladder, as an example Saints to lose by 4 goals, and Melbourne need to win by 4 goals. All up, a scoring differential of +8 goals needs to be made up, which i think could happen. (Saints lose by 1 goal+ Dees win by 7 goals, Saints lose by 2 goals+Dees win by 6 goals, Saints lose by 3 goals+Dees win by 5 goals etc)

 

[iluvparis]

Squiggle assigns a 13.3% chance to the Saints missing the 8 - so thats a price of around $7.50

 

[Newborn]

an important factor also, is Melbourne play on the Saturday, and the Saints play on Friday. So Melbourne in a way have a bit more control over their destiny.


for Melbourne to overtake the Saints on the ladder, as an example Saints to lose by 4 goals, and Melbourne need to win by 4 goals. All up, a scoring differential of +8 goals needs to be made up, which i think could happen. (Saints lose by 1 goal+ Dees win by 7 goals, Saints lose by 2 goals+Dees win by 6 goals, Saints lose by 3 goals+Dees win by 5 goals etc)

Yeah so say Saints lost, even in a close match, if Dee's and Pies and Dogs win one match - gone !
Dees will have a target, i see what ur saying.

 

[Newborn]

Squiggle assigns a 13.3% chance to the Saints missing the 8 - so thats a price of around $7.50

The breakdown doesn't meet up with the 13% or $8 on offer. Obviously if they win then all over nothing to worry about.

 

[NYRB]

Yeah so say Saints lost, even in a close match, if Dee's and Pies and Dogs win one match - gone !
Dees will have a target, i see what ur saying.

Reckon a fair price for Demons to beat Essendon is around $1.42

Same too for Bulldogs to beat Freo at around $1.42

I'd be surprised if they started higher than that.

Saints v GWS is a coin toss, they should get back Coniglio and Riccardi for that game.

 

[Newborn]

Reckon a fair price for Demons to beat Essendon is around $1.42

Same too for Bulldogs to beat Freo at around $1.42

I'd be surprised if they started higher than that.

Saints v GWS is a coin toss, they should get back Coniglio and Riccardi for that game.

Just watching the flow of the games lately, for the Saints, they have been very up n down each game. Looked home for mine against the Eagles.
I know the faves and shorties are never guaranteed, but those look scary haha

 

[NYRB]

I quite like the bet:

GWS Win in a close contest, Collingwood to win at least 1 of their 2 matches, Bulldogs to beat Freo, Melbourne to beat Ess

in that case the ladder ranking would be : Coll 6th, Bulldogs 7th, Melbourne 8th, which would push the Saints out.

if you put that in a multi you will probably only get around $4.60 , whereas you can bet on the Saints to miss the 8 which pays $8.

 

[Newborn]

I quite like the bet:

GWS Win in a close contest, Collingwood to win 1 of their 2 matches, Bulldogs to beat Freo, Melbourne to beat Ess

in that case the ladder ranking would be : Coll 6th, Bulldogs 7th, Melbourne 8th, which would push the Saints out.

if you put that in a multi you will probably only get around $4.60 , whereas you can bet on the Saints to miss the 8 which pays $8.

Hammered by the forum today haha....

Its not a big loss either, if i cipher 150 or 200 off the 1550 and hedge.

 

[NYRB]

Hammered by the forum today haha....

Its not a big loss either, if i cipher 150 or 200 off the 1550 and hedge.

Sportsbet have them to Miss the 8 at $9 if keen.

 

[Newborn]

Sportsbet have them to Miss the 8 at $9 if keen.

View attachment 961004

I'll see, have favoured simple TAB as there withdrawal processing is 2nd to none.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Ok

I'll see, have favoured simple TAB as there withdrawal processing is 2nd to none.

Sportsbet is Next day funds too def take the $9 mate it's $1800 return instead of $1600