AFL 2020 - AFL Round 3

[54Dogs]

J.Higgins AGS $2.65 - 365
Very good price for a permanent forward. Surprisingly only covered 5/13 last year, but played games as a mid. The $1.72 on offer at SB seems pretty close to true value so its a significant discount.

Was it just me or did he play quite high last week

 

[NonPhixion]

Was it just me or did he play quite high last week

you are right, he did. But I think that was more the nature of that game, forwards were pushing up very high because it was ultra defensive. Can't see the same defensive chess game being played tomorrow again (atleast I hope not lol)

 

[Robo87]

Castagna and Burgoyne AGS, Prestia 20+ = $4.05

Thoughts?

i think castagna owes me beers from round 2 still.

but nah, seriously it looks alright. only concern is Shaun Burgoyne listed at half back, but that's no guarantee he'll stay back there all game.

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Ollie Hanrahan AGS at $3.30 looks decent on 365, playing full time forward and kicked a goal in each game this season (plus 5/9 last year).

 

[squeaky1000]

An intriguing round of games this week. I've got the pigs entrails out to see if they is psychological tipstering to be had:

I jumped on NM -4.5 and H2H early in the week. I think NM will get a heap of momentum from an amazing road win. There's a danger of a letdown given how out of the box good the performance was, but I think they'll kick on here. Syd come as advertised. They're no good. With Buddy, Reid and Naismith out they lack height and heavily reliant of Papley and Heeney to kick goals.

While i'm on GWS -5.5 and H2H i'll probably middle the line bet. I have picked up a strong trend of teams coming off two atrocious performances responding strongly. However. GWS themselves are coming off an atrocious performance themselves. Additionally WB were very soft in their final against GWS. I expect the early part of the game here to be quite physical and intense.

It makes me sick but i'm backing GC to win and -1.5. Very poor teams can be atrocious the week after a massive unexpected win (see GC vs Carl the week after they beat Syd). But I think this early in the season where GC were good last year that they should keep up the momentum. Ade on the other hand have been pounded now facing a road trip.

With Hogan and probably Wilson in and two decent performances under their belt I like Freo to cover the 20+ line vs Port. Always good to back a team that's 0-2 vs a 2-0 side. They've looked good Port but they have also only beaten GC and Ade. Let's hope they get a bit complacent.

As expected Bris has reverted back to mean after last years performance. I think WC has clearly the better team here and should be motivated from an atrocious performance last week. Might be good to watch and bet in-play on Eagles if they look switched on.

I rate the Hawks highly and they get JOM back but will give this game a miss.

Think Saints kick on from their crushing win, but again will leave this game.

Carl tend to have a good record covering and the line looks high with shorter quarters. Can't be confident though given how good Cats are at Skilled and how good they looked last week. They might be better than I expected.

The Ess side on paper is pretty good, but they've had a terrible prep coming in and have faded badly in their 1st two games. Very hard to judge Melb given they were very good early then faded terribly. Might be better to got more of a read on Melb before betting on either team.

Very hard to judge teams this early in the season given the weeks between games and the differing circumstances of differing teams. However, should be a cracking round.

Nice analysis I agree with almost all of that.
I was very confident on GWS last week and they burnt be badly, while they've definitely got a class edge on the Dogs I'll need to see a performance a lot more like what we're used to with them before I could consider backing them again. Dogs have been horrendous so far but they've got enough class to make a game of it if they turn up and Giants traditionally haven't played well at Ethiad.

I'm with you on the Suns, they're easily my favourite and potentially only h2h/line I'm really keen on this week. Their pressure around the ground was immense last week and I struggle to see them getting complacent after their first win in almost a season, they would've gained a lot of belief from knocking off the Eagles. Crows are a mess at the moment and I definitely think the Suns would be eyeing them off, similar to last season would expect the bulk of their wins to come in the early part of the season before their young players start to tire.

 

[Atavistic]

Going 20+ disposals for each of Bailey Smith, McGrath, Langdon and Simpkin, singles only, none of this multibet stuff that always misses.

I think McGrath has already moved in quite a bit from when I first saw the market.

Why is Miers $4 for 2+ goals against Carlton?

Edit: On Miers for AGS, 2+ and 3+ at SB@1.57, 4 and 12.

 

[Sausage Legs]

On singles. Bet365.
Castagna 1.83
Gunston 1.83
Smaller play on Caddy 2.75 as reckon will pinch hit fwd with dusty out

 

[tangolikelama]

SGM power played @4.90

Richmond H2H
Riewoldt AGS
Breust AGS
Houli 20+
Mitchell 20+

 

[JuniorWatch]

Think people are around the mark here.
The play in this game i reckon is on the Tiggs small forwards.
The should maintain their value after last week and the Hawks don't really have the setup atm to deal with them.
Going with NonPhixion's Higgins shout at 2.7/6.5/26 and a little go on Sausage Legs (tiges board seem to agree) shout on Caddy at 2.75/7/29.
Castagna has come in on B365 and tbh i just don't trust the little guy.

 

[iluvparis]

Castagna probably owes everyone beers at some stage for AGS/FGS punters - never seen a player get into goal scoring positions so regularly before completely ****ing it up!!!!

 

[Sausage Legs]

Castagna probably owes everyone beers at some stage for AGS/FGS punters - never seen a player get into goal scoring positions so regularly before completely ******* it up!!!!

Had him first goal scorer every quarter of last year's gf. I swear he had a chance every quarter. Finished 0.5.

 

[Del125763]

My prediction for Freo v Brisbane unders, last week was wrong.

Despite Dusty missing, feel like Richmond v Hawks can cover the points total of 132.5 points.

Although you have to admit, despite having a novelty market up for Pick Your Own Total, the bookies margin from Sportsbet too is deplorable. Cmon Sportsbet lift up you game!

Odds from Sportsbet for Richmond v Hawks:



if your going to bet on those above odds, you have to take the odds on for any value.

$1.67 v $1.72 for Under/Over 130.5 points, is absolute bollocks. (the margins are as high as 18% or so) For the same market at 131.5 points, you can get odds of $1.88 v $1.88. (which is still pretty woeful for a pre-game market). Betting on anything less than $1.20 on the image above, is the way to the poor house.

Cmon Sportsbet management if your reading this thread, please up your game!

 

[NonPhixion]

Castagna probably owes everyone beers at some stage for AGS/FGS punters - never seen a player get into goal scoring positions so regularly before completely ******* it up!!!!

I’ll let him know

 

[Del125763]

Look I apologise to Sportsbet, I've used them for a number of years but you can't be offering margins of around 18% for an AFL game. I understand everyone had to earn a living and the economy is going through a bit of a tough situation. But please offer some fairness to the punters and don't do any damage to your brand.

 

[NonPhixion]

Pointsbet promos are absolutely hilarious but there poison. Can’t recommend taking any on offer this weekend. Pretty sure they have the best statisticians working for them

 

[burge13]

Pointsbet promos are absolutely hilarious but there poison. Can’t recommend taking any on offer this weekend. Pretty sure they have the best statisticians working for them

I hate Pointsbet as I balked at buying their shares at 1.20ish then watched them rise to 7.00ish in 2-3 months. Not their fault but I'll hold this grudge to the grave haha

 

[squeaky1000]

SGM Prestia, Houli, Mitchell 20+ $2.60
Cotchin over 18.5 disp $1.70
Mitchell under 99.5 fantasy $1.60
Riewoldt under 54.5 fantasy $1.88

 

[Sausage Legs]

Any bets around Tomahawk going unders. Weitering has kept Lynch goalless then Tom McDonald scoreless. Tomahawk hasn't got near it regardless of who he's on.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Any bets around Tomahawk going unders. Weitering has kept Lynch goalless then Tom McDonald scoreless. Tomahawk hasn't got near it regardless of who he's on.

We're all waiting expectantly for BetFair to put up more prop markets for this exact reason. Imagine the sweet lay on an AGS.

 

[iluvparis]

Had him first goal scorer every quarter of last year's gf. I swear he had a chance every quarter. Finished 0.5.

The first quarter one was absolutely sickening

 

[targett]

 

[iluvparis]

6 point move just for no Martin seems overs - he's no Melkers

 

[GROTTO]

6 point move just for no Martin seems overs - he's no Melkers

You may joke about him, but you seriously underrate his 10 disposals last week v Carlton. With Melks its about the quality not disposal count or goals.

Absolute silk.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Hawks backline still looks too cumbersome and slow for Richmond, will the dew be less tonight at the G compared to last week? Dont mind Richmond over 67.5 pts this week.. also do you guys like Edwards over in fantasy?? Wasn't it with Dusty out last year he played through middle and racked up about 130-140 pts?? In a wet game v Carlton

 

[demon_fanatic]

Hawks backline still looks too cumbersome and slow for Richmond, will the dew be less tonight at the G compared to last week? Dont mind Richmond over 67.5 pts this week.. also do you guys like Edwards over in fantasy?? Wasn't it with Dusty out last year he played through middle and racked up about 130-140 pts?? In a wet game v Carlton

Oh it was no Cotchin and Dusty he went for 127 fantasy,154 supercoach, think he will like the increased responsibility tonight in a good matchup and will surely see some mid time, 59.5 pts looks gettable,51 last week in a pretty quiet average game, 13 touches,plenty of scope for improvement possession wise and especially if he can snag a goal or two