balmainforever
Dibs
- Sep 4, 2003
- 25,019
- 29,796
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- #1
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I think Rich win and do it comfortably against us(Haw). I just don’t see how we kick our goals all season against the better set up teams defensively.I'm considering loading up a decent amount on Tigers and Giants into a Multi, at $2.26 odds ($2.33 on BetEasy with a bet-boost) Only thing stopping me is that the teams having just returned to playing and everyone's still finding their feet. Based on the first 2 rounds it's very unlikely the Dogs can do GWS. Confident about the Tiges as well, we were a little flat v the Pies but we match up very well against the Hawks.
As a crows supporter , i still sadly agree with you. GC have Never beaten Adelaide, but this is the week GC do get their first win on us.love Gold Coast at current odds. even 25+ $3.90 with TAB looks super juicy.
Crows are a complete rabble, while GC looked good, you could see a lot of their players have come back in really good condition and I anticipate them to run out games better than many other teams. Similarly to last year I can see them winning the bulk of their games at the start of the season.
As a crows supporter , i still sadly agree with you. GC have Never beaten Adelaide, but this is the week GC do get their first win on us.
Im going to back multiple lines for GC and see how many do come off.
1.5u GC -1.5 @1.91 b365
1.2u GC -9.5 @2.35 b365
1u GC -20.5 @3.40 sb
0.5u GC -24.5 @4 sb
0.5u GC -29.5 @5 sb
0.3u GC -35.5 @6.50 sb
0.3u GC 40+@8 sb
0.2u GC -45.5 @11.50 b365
0.2u GC 49-60band @21 b365
(only need first 2 to win to break even)
& IF crows do win.... i get the sadness of my bank account, but the happiness that they wont go winless this year.. Ha
These markets have traditionally poor marginsThe game at Kardinia Park I reckon will be a tight affair. Carlton are a better side than Hawthorn this year in my opinion.
Also traditionally Kardinia park is a low scoring ground. Last years average was 162.88 points per game . (which equates to around 130.30 points for this seasons quarters ) The bookies have got the line right for this game at about 130.5 points. I compiled a spreadsheet of the best odds for Sportsbet and TAB for Total Match Points. As you can see the bookies margin are terrible at around 23% and 26.4%. Its better to bet on straight up on unders/overs than these odds:
View attachment 893773
Hey mate. With topsport if the line is just chugging along the movements are 1.9 1.85 1.8 then the line will change. Depending on a few factors the new line may even start at 1.95 1.9 1.85 etc not necessarily the 1.9.Random question on the above Magpies/Saints line - Saints now into 1.85 so a 5c move in - how big does it have to be to generate a point move in the line?
Without looking at stats wouldn't the majority of that 162 score be the cats. Hard to beat there especially if u are Carlton.The game at Kardinia Park I reckon will be a tight affair. Carlton are a better side than Hawthorn this year in my opinion.
Also traditionally Kardinia park is a low scoring ground. Last years average was 162.88 points per game . (which equates to around 130.30 points for this seasons quarters ) The bookies have got the line right for this game at about 130.5 points. I compiled a spreadsheet of the best odds for Sportsbet and TAB for Total Match Points. As you can see the bookies margin are terrible at around 23% and 26.4%. Its better to bet on straight up on unders/overs than these odds:
View attachment 893773
Without looking at stats wouldn't the majority of that 162 score be the cats. Hard to beat there especially if u are Carlton.
Don't wanna put u off ur bet but look at Carlton's starts so far. We're down by 8 goal at the half v tiges and 5 goals at half v melb. They're more known for late comebacks and 'honorable losses'Not sure if this helps but Geelong was scarily good at home last season at Kardinia Park. I might have to backtrack on my thoughts that Carlton will give them a fight and could cover the margin.
Geelong at Kardinia Park in 2019:
Number of Matches : 9
Points For : 901
Points Against: 524
Total Points from 9 matches: 901+524=1425 points
Proportion of Points Geelong 63.22% v 36.78% Proportion of Points Opposition
so assuming a 130.5 points line, if you were to base on proportion of points last season: A good score prediction would be Geelong win this 82-48 Carlton
or Geelong 83-47 Carlton.
Give that its a 16 minute quarter, the line is around 27.5 points is again about right but I just have this gut feeling , the shorter quarters will favour Carlton to cover the line. A better bet may be to get on Carlton to start a bit better in this game. Maybe might be worth a play +13.5 or +14.5 Carlton 1st half handicap.