AFL 2020 - AFL Round 3

[balmainforever]

 

[burge13]

North in a canter

 

[bisazc887]

I learned this round that anything can happen but having said that , I’m going to bank Geelong and north and have two large bets with those and gws in one and those and Richmond on the other

A smaller one (compared to those two) with all 4 above

Will also take a small bet with my team at the line although that’s more just my heart , and obviously pies will be a much much bigger mountain than the dogs were , but in my opinion for 3 quarters we were as good against them as pies were in round 1, and we got done by nth by less than a kick (And probably should of had that won bar chances not taken) and look how that form is stacking up

 

[NonPhixion]

love Gold Coast at current odds. even 25+ $3.90 with TAB looks super juicy.
Crows are a complete rabble, while GC looked good, you could see a lot of their players have come back in really good condition and I anticipate them to run out games better than many other teams. Similarly to last year I can see them winning the bulk of their games at the start of the season.

 

[targett]

Line Movements

 

[one eyedtiger]

I'm considering loading up a decent amount on Tigers and Giants into a Multi, at $2.26 odds ($2.33 on BetEasy with a bet-boost) Only thing stopping me is that the teams having just returned to playing and everyone's still finding their feet. Based on the first 2 rounds it's very unlikely the Dogs can do GWS. Confident about the Tiges as well, we were a little flat v the Pies but we match up very well against the Hawks.

 

[BuddysBuddy23]

I'm considering loading up a decent amount on Tigers and Giants into a Multi, at $2.26 odds ($2.33 on BetEasy with a bet-boost) Only thing stopping me is that the teams having just returned to playing and everyone's still finding their feet. Based on the first 2 rounds it's very unlikely the Dogs can do GWS. Confident about the Tiges as well, we were a little flat v the Pies but we match up very well against the Hawks.

I think Rich win and do it comfortably against us(Haw). I just don’t see how we kick our goals all season against the better set up teams defensively.
I’ve currently got a small play on Rich/Geel/Ess/GC/North at $8.55 combined

 

[Robo87]

love Gold Coast at current odds. even 25+ $3.90 with TAB looks super juicy.
Crows are a complete rabble, while GC looked good, you could see a lot of their players have come back in really good condition and I anticipate them to run out games better than many other teams. Similarly to last year I can see them winning the bulk of their games at the start of the season.

As a crows supporter , i still sadly agree with you. GC have Never beaten Adelaide, but this is the week GC do get their first win on us.
Im going to back multiple lines for GC and see how many do come off.
1.5u GC -1.5 @1.91 b365
1.2u GC -9.5 @2.35 b365
1u GC -20.5 @3.40 sb
0.5u GC -24.5 @4 sb
0.5u GC -29.5 @5 sb
0.3u GC -35.5 @6.50 sb
0.3u GC 40+@8 sb
0.2u GC -45.5 @11.50 b365
0.2u GC 49-60band @21 b365
(only need first 2 to win to break even)
& IF crows do win.... i get the sadness of my bank account, but the happiness that they wont go winless this year.. Ha

 

[NonPhixion]

As a crows supporter , i still sadly agree with you. GC have Never beaten Adelaide, but this is the week GC do get their first win on us.
Im going to back multiple lines for GC and see how many do come off.
1.5u GC -1.5 @1.91 b365
1.2u GC -9.5 @2.35 b365
1u GC -20.5 @3.40 sb
0.5u GC -24.5 @4 sb
0.5u GC -29.5 @5 sb
0.3u GC -35.5 @6.50 sb
0.3u GC 40+@8 sb
0.2u GC -45.5 @11.50 b365
0.2u GC 49-60band @21 b365
(only need first 2 to win to break even)
& IF crows do win.... i get the sadness of my bank account, but the happiness that they wont go winless this year.. Ha

nice BR management there. like it

 

[targett]

 

[NYRB]

Carlton and Freo were competitive enough in Round 2 to suggest to me they can cover the line. Freo mainly because they have had an extra week up in QLD and playing on neutral ground. Carlton were much better in the 2nd half in their loss to the Dees last week.

 

[NYRB]

The game at Kardinia Park I reckon will be a tight affair. Carlton are a better side than Hawthorn this year in my opinion.

Also traditionally Kardinia park is a low scoring ground. Last years average was 162.88 points per game . (which equates to around 130.30 points for this seasons quarters ) The bookies have got the line right for this game at about 130.5 points. I compiled a spreadsheet of the best odds for Sportsbet and TAB for Total Match Points. As you can see the bookies margin are terrible at around 23% and 26.4%. Its better to bet on straight up on unders/overs than these odds:

 

[targett]

 

[iluvparis]

Random question on the above Magpies/Saints line - Saints now into 1.85 so a 5c move in - how big does it have to be to generate a point move in the line?

 

[targett]

The game at Kardinia Park I reckon will be a tight affair. Carlton are a better side than Hawthorn this year in my opinion.

Also traditionally Kardinia park is a low scoring ground. Last years average was 162.88 points per game . (which equates to around 130.30 points for this seasons quarters ) The bookies have got the line right for this game at about 130.5 points. I compiled a spreadsheet of the best odds for Sportsbet and TAB for Total Match Points. As you can see the bookies margin are terrible at around 23% and 26.4%. Its better to bet on straight up on unders/overs than these odds:

View attachment 893773

These markets have traditionally poor margins

Random question on the above Magpies/Saints line - Saints now into 1.85 so a 5c move in - how big does it have to be to generate a point move in the line?

Hey mate. With topsport if the line is just chugging along the movements are 1.9 1.85 1.8 then the line will change. Depending on a few factors the new line may even start at 1.95 1.9 1.85 etc not necessarily the 1.9.

 

[Sausage Legs]

The game at Kardinia Park I reckon will be a tight affair. Carlton are a better side than Hawthorn this year in my opinion.

Also traditionally Kardinia park is a low scoring ground. Last years average was 162.88 points per game . (which equates to around 130.30 points for this seasons quarters ) The bookies have got the line right for this game at about 130.5 points. I compiled a spreadsheet of the best odds for Sportsbet and TAB for Total Match Points. As you can see the bookies margin are terrible at around 23% and 26.4%. Its better to bet on straight up on unders/overs than these odds:

View attachment 893773

Without looking at stats wouldn't the majority of that 162 score be the cats. Hard to beat there especially if u are Carlton.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Not seeing anything appealing on the game totals all seem pretty right considering the weather be rubbish in Melbourne over the weekend, perhaps unders in Melbourne Essendon but 129.5 is still a bit dicey, dees couldn't score in dry weather for 3 quarters vs Carlton though.. think I'll just go hard on Rich/Geelong multi with either Port or Gcoast, don't Gcoast get Swallow and another experienced guy back too this week

 

[NYRB]

Without looking at stats wouldn't the majority of that 162 score be the cats. Hard to beat there especially if u are Carlton.

Not sure if this helps but Geelong was scarily good at home last season at Kardinia Park. I might have to backtrack on my thoughts that Carlton will give them a fight and could cover the margin.

Geelong at Kardinia Park in 2019:
Number of Matches : 9
Points For : 901
Points Against: 524
Total Points from 9 matches: 901+524=1425 points

Proportion of Points Geelong 63.22% v 36.78% Proportion of Points Opposition


so assuming a 130.5 points line, if you were to base on proportion of points last season: A good score prediction would be Geelong win this 82-48 Carlton
or Geelong 83-47 Carlton.

Give that its a 16 minute quarter, the line is around 27.5 points is again about right but I just have this gut feeling , the shorter quarters will favour Carlton to cover the line. A better bet may be to get on Carlton to start a bit better in this game. Maybe might be worth a play +13.5 or +14.5 Carlton 1st half handicap.

 

[NYRB]

If you include lasts week win over Hawthorn as well, their last 10 matches, they have averaged a winning margin of 43.8 points per game.

 

[burge13]

TBF of course Geelong are good at Skilled. Whenever they play a good team it's at the G...

Easy to beat GCS, Freo, Saints etc at their home ground

 

[Sausage Legs]

Not sure if this helps but Geelong was scarily good at home last season at Kardinia Park. I might have to backtrack on my thoughts that Carlton will give them a fight and could cover the margin.

Geelong at Kardinia Park in 2019:
Number of Matches : 9
Points For : 901
Points Against: 524
Total Points from 9 matches: 901+524=1425 points

Proportion of Points Geelong 63.22% v 36.78% Proportion of Points Opposition


so assuming a 130.5 points line, if you were to base on proportion of points last season: A good score prediction would be Geelong win this 82-48 Carlton
or Geelong 83-47 Carlton.

Give that its a 16 minute quarter, the line is around 27.5 points is again about right but I just have this gut feeling , the shorter quarters will favour Carlton to cover the line. A better bet may be to get on Carlton to start a bit better in this game. Maybe might be worth a play +13.5 or +14.5 Carlton 1st half handicap.

Don't wanna put u off ur bet but look at Carlton's starts so far. We're down by 8 goal at the half v tiges and 5 goals at half v melb. They're more known for late comebacks and 'honorable losses'

 

[mookieb]

An intriguing round of games this week. I've got the pigs entrails out to see if they is psychological tipstering to be had:

I jumped on NM -4.5 and H2H early in the week. I think NM will get a heap of momentum from an amazing road win. There's a danger of a letdown given how out of the box good the performance was, but I think they'll kick on here. Syd come as advertised. They're no good. With Buddy, Reid and Naismith out they lack height and heavily reliant of Papley and Heeney to kick goals.

While i'm on GWS -5.5 and H2H i'll probably middle the line bet. I have picked up a strong trend of teams coming off two atrocious performances responding strongly. However. GWS themselves are coming off an atrocious performance themselves. Additionally WB were very soft in their final against GWS. I expect the early part of the game here to be quite physical and intense.

It makes me sick but i'm backing GC to win and -1.5. Very poor teams can be atrocious the week after a massive unexpected win (see GC vs Carl the week after they beat Syd). But I think this early in the season where GC were good last year that they should keep up the momentum. Ade on the other hand have been pounded now facing a road trip.

With Hogan and probably Wilson in and two decent performances under their belt I like Freo to cover the 20+ line vs Port. Always good to back a team that's 0-2 vs a 2-0 side. They've looked good Port but they have also only beaten GC and Ade. Let's hope they get a bit complacent.

As expected Bris has reverted back to mean after last years performance. I think WC has clearly the better team here and should be motivated from an atrocious performance last week. Might be good to watch and bet in-play on Eagles if they look switched on.

I rate the Hawks highly and they get JOM back but will give this game a miss.

Think Saints kick on from their crushing win, but again will leave this game.

Carl tend to have a good record covering and the line looks high with shorter quarters. Can't be confident though given how good Cats are at Skilled and how good they looked last week. They might be better than I expected.

The Ess side on paper is pretty good, but they've had a terrible prep coming in and have faded badly in their 1st two games. Very hard to judge Melb given they were very good early then faded terribly. Might be better to got more of a read on Melb before betting on either team.

Very hard to judge teams this early in the season given the weeks between games and the differing circumstances of differing teams. However, should be a cracking round.

 

[54Dogs]

Dusty out

 

[NonPhixion]

J.Higgins AGS $2.65 - 365
Very good price for a permanent forward. Surprisingly only covered 5/13 last year, but played games as a mid. The $1.72 on offer at SB seems pretty close to true value so its a significant discount.

 

[burge13]

Castagna and Burgoyne AGS, Prestia 20+ = $4.05

Thoughts?