AFL 2020 - AFL Round 4

[Sausage Legs]

Will Hayward 1.87
Sam Lloyd 1.95
sausages

 

[BuddysBuddy23]

Heard somewhere McLean followed Whitfield around last week prior to Lachie being concussed. If this was the case I expect him to sit in Lloyd’s pocket this week and nullify his output. Same goes with Hewett on Macrae. I’d be wary of adding Lloyd/Macrae to any multis tomorrow night for disposals. Same goes for Pendles/Sidebottom at Coll Friday night. One will cop the DeBoer tag for sure

 

[Benjo_]

Heard somewhere McLean followed Whitfield around last week prior to Lachie being concussed. If this was the case I expect him to sit in Lloyd’s pocket this week and nullify his output. Same goes with Hewett on Macrae. I’d be wary of adding Lloyd/Macrae to any multis tomorrow night for disposals. Same goes for Pendles/Sidebottom at Coll Friday night. One will cop the DeBoer tag for sure

Surely Hewett goes to Bont?

 

[BuddysBuddy23]

Surely Hewett goes to Bont?

Yes you are correct, missed the Bont. Came back to edit the post! Hewett to Bont, lock it in

 

[JuniorWatch]

Surely Hewett goes to Bont?

Which is why PB is offering one of their poison promos about his disposal numbers.

 

[Parko31]

1U Bailey Smith Most Disposals Group 1 @$10
1.5U Bailey Smith 20+ Disposals @$1.72 (for cover)

 

[NYRB]

Total Match Points best odds for Swans v Bulldogs tomorrow night. 17.77% margin is an improvement in comparison to previous weeks. Sportsbet offering over 160.5 points in PYOT at odds of 9/1 if anyone is keen. Here are the best odds for points from: Sportsbet, TAB and Topsport.

 

[Ohh Ok]

1U Bailey Smith Most Disposals Group 1 @$10
1.5U Bailey Smith 20+ Disposals @$1.72 (for cover)

Was hoping to get lucky and find Bailey in a group B somewhere. Might look at PointsBet for some of their smaller groups they put up

 

[NYRB]

I honestly doubt we will see any game hit over 200 points or more, if quarters remain at 16 minutes a quarter. The 220.5 market was a market I used to play a fair bit, but under the current playing time, the equivalent of that is 176.4 points under 16 minute quarters. I don't think many games will hit above 175 or more personally. For it to go above 175 points or more, both teams have to play attacking from start to end and I just can't see that happening. (Might have a bit of a stab here, i reckon if we get over 100 games this season, maybe you will get 1 in 18 matches that will go over 175 or more points) With the slowing down of games especially with around 3-4 minutes to go till the end of quarters, teams often try to preserve their lead, rather than go all out attack to bolster their lead.

Sportsbet have a line for PYOT at over 150.5 points paying 9/2. Given the last match played that it went OVER 150.5, might be worth a play on that.

 

[Parko31]

Was hoping to get lucky and find Bailey in a group B somewhere. Might look at PointsBet for some of their smaller groups they put up

Yeah definitely worth something if you can find him in a group 2. His numbers have him going close to or winning group 1 every week yet SB still offer $10

 

[Parko31]

I honestly doubt we will see any game hit over 200 points or more, if quarters remain at 16 minutes a quarter. The 220.5 market was a market I used to play a fair bit, but under the current playing time, the equivalent of that is 176.4 points under 16 minute quarters. I don't think many games will hit above 175 or more personally. For it to go above 175 points or more, both teams have to play attacking from start to end and I just can't see that happening. (Might have a bit of a stab here, i reckon if we get over 100 games this season, maybe you will get 1 in 18 matches that will go over 175 or more points) With the slowing down of games especially with around 3-4 minutes to go till the end of quarters, teams often try to preserve their lead, rather than go all out attack to bolster their lead.

Sportsbet have a line for PYOT at over 150.5 points paying 9/2. Given the last match played that it went OVER 150.5, might be worth a play on that.

Last 6 match totals Dogs vs Swans
165
130
197
156
162
150
Average 160
-20% = 128

 

[BuddysBuddy23]

Yeah definitely worth something if you can find him in a group 2. His numbers have him going close to or winning group 1 every week yet SB still offer $10

Ladbrokes are offering up $17 for him to win Group A. I think that’s worth a nibble. As mentioned, his stats suggest he should be a lot closer than this. Especially with Dunks now missing.
Pointsbet has Smith @ $7.50 to lead the dogs disposals
$3.60 to win group B disposals(In with Daniel,Florent,Libba,JJ).
@ $5.60 to win Group D (J.Lloyd,JPK,Florent,JJ)

 

[burge13]

Jamie Elliott
2+ $3.4
3+ $9.5

Some value here, Elliott loves kicking 2 or 3 snags a game.

Stephenon over Elliott surely? Better forward and longer odds

Im on C Brown goals already so apologies for jInxing it haha

 

[Ohh Ok]

Yeah definitely worth something if you can find him in a group 2. His numbers have him going close to or winning group 1 every week yet SB still offer $10

What I don’t understand is how 20+ has shortened into $1.72 but 25+ has drifted to $3.75 for him

$17 for most disposals in neds/lads btw

 

[Robo87]

Also like Liam Ryan:
Has scores of 3.3, 0.4, 3 this year
Keep in mind his accuracy isn't the best

oh boy do i know!! guess which week i was on him.. . I guess he's due to be inaccurate again this week so im hesitant to tail - he'll probably kick 0.2 if i were to back him vs port..
Port and Collingwood's defence has been pretty good so far ('total points against' to R3= 105 and 107)so im personally staying off backing multi scorers from their opposition teams atm.

Agree with hayward or blakey , sinclair, stephenson, for goals so far, (& mayb wallis for just his consistent 1g.)
+ I like Duncan ags @1.91 sb 1u (6 scoring shots for 4.2 in last 3 weeks)
0.5u Duncan 2g+ @6 sb
0.1u Duncan 3g+@23 sb

 

[GROTTO]

Jamie Elliott
2+ $3.4
3+ $9.5

Some value here, Elliott loves kicking 2 or 3 snags a game.

The good thing for your bet, is that he never passes it off. He will always take the shot, regardless of where he is on the ground.

 

[NonPhixion]

The good thing for your bet, is that he never passes it off. He will always take the shot, regardless of where he is on the ground.

Generally agree. Although I have seen Jamie try to pass it off literally 3M out from goal last year

 

[GROTTO]

Just curious if anyone knows, as I havent placed any future bets, but if the season is suspended again, say for a month or two (more or less) are the bets voided?

Do different books have different rules for these events?

Thanks in advance.

 

[GROTTO]

Generally agree. Although I have seen Jamie try to pass it off literally 3M out from goal last year

Any chance that Jamie placed a bet on AGS for a certain Pies player?

 

[targett]

 

[targett]

 

[targett]

The good thing for your bet, is that he never passes it off. He will always take the shot, regardless of where he is on the ground.

Loves a goal Jamie but is very unselfish

 

[GROTTO]

Loves a goal Jamie but is very unselfish

View attachment 899187

Thanks for that interesting to see the contribution of the elite players in the league tend to bring other players into the game, like the Melksham's, Dusty's, and the Bont.

 

[BuddysBuddy23]

Just curious if anyone knows, as I havent placed any future bets, but if the season is suspended again, say for a month or two (more or less) are the bets voided?

Do different books have different rules for these events?

Thanks in advance.

I’ve had two future bets running since before Rd.1 started with Neds, both were still active during the first break and both still active now. No cash out options though which is a bummer. Have Rowell in both for Rising Star @ $3.75, in to $1.10 now

 

[Sausage Legs]

I’ve had two future bets running since before Rd.1 started with Neds, both were still active during the first break and both still active now. No cash out options though which is a bummer. Have Rowell in both for Rising Star @ $3.75, in to $1.10 now

If they haven't voided them now don't see them doing it in future. I've had bets with pointsbet and Sportsbet voided. Ladbrokes are still pending.