AFL 2020 - AFL Round 5

Remove this Banner Ad

NYRB

Club Legend
Oct 6, 2011
2,558
877
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
I fancy the Blues v Saints to go overs . Saints played a non stop style of football last week. Even when up be a few goals at the end of each term, the coaches tactic was to sort of play on at all cost, which led them to conceding a goal late in the 3rd quarter last week.
 

JuniorWatch

Club Legend
Jun 13, 2016
1,324
1,923
AFL Club
Essendon
Like the unders in the NM/WB game.
WB ave points 2020: 51.75
NM ave points 2020: 62.5
= 114.25

Dogs are the better team, but struggle to score and have lost Naughton and Lloyd.
North will struggle with the dogs pressure, are heavily reliant on Brown and Zurhaar, have lost Ziebell after which comes Xerri, Mahoney and Taylor.
u126.5 $1.91 b365
u120.5 $2.26 BE
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

burge13

Club Legend
Jan 25, 2019
2,319
2,859
AFL Club
Adelaide
Assuming Treloar comes in for Steele so not much lost there but who comes in for Howe?

Still think Pies win as the Dons are ordinary at best but trying to gauge Howe's loss.
 

NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
3,185
3,697
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Assuming Treloar comes in for Steele so not much lost there but who comes in for Howe?

Still think Pies win as the Dons are ordinary at best but trying to gauge Howe's loss.
Howes loss is absolutely huge, no doubt about it. Madgen most likely comes into the side but we can’t replace a player like Howe.
 

burge13

Club Legend
Jan 25, 2019
2,319
2,859
AFL Club
Adelaide
Howes loss is absolutely huge, no doubt about it. Madgen most likely comes into the side but we can’t replace a player like Howe.
Agreed over the season, but against an average side like the Dons it shouldn't hurt as much. Madgen/Moore/Crisp/Maynard should be enough to stop the ordinary forwards you're against?
 

NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
3,185
3,697
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Agreed over the season, but against an average side like the Dons it shouldn't hurt as much. Madgen/Moore/Crisp/Maynard should be enough to stop the ordinary forwards you're against?
I’d say this is probably true, but also given it’s the first game without him, it might take a couple weeks to re-structure the backline. He was in seriously good form before going down so can understand the line shortening in Essendons favour
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,782
1,154
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Agreed over the season, but against an average side like the Dons it shouldn't hurt as much. Madgen/Moore/Crisp/Maynard should be enough to stop the ordinary forwards you're against?
Ordinary forwards? Tippa, Fantasia, Devon Smith and Stringer? McKernan impacts games at times and Hooker can switch forward.
 

burge13

Club Legend
Jan 25, 2019
2,319
2,859
AFL Club
Adelaide
Ordinary forwards? Tippa, Fantasia, Devon Smith and Stringer? McKernan impacts games at times and Hooker can switch forward.
Tippa is getting about 5 kicks a game this year. Stringer is the most overrated player I can remember. Smith hasn't looked the same this year, Fantasia hasn't been good for 12-18 months? I'm happy calling this forward line ordinary tbh. Certainly not a finals worthy forward line
 

JuniorWatch

Club Legend
Jun 13, 2016
1,324
1,923
AFL Club
Essendon
Tippa is getting about 5 kicks a game this year. Stringer is the most overrated player I can remember. Smith hasn't looked the same this year, Fantasia hasn't been good for 12-18 months? I'm happy calling this forward line ordinary tbh. Certainly not a finals worthy forward line
Have to agree with all of that except that Smith has been in great touch playing mid and has kicked a goal every game he's played.
They all have the ability to take the game away from you but none of them, save Smith, are in form.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

NYRB

Club Legend
Oct 6, 2011
2,558
877
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
if the Crows play like they did on the 3rd quarter last weekend, and Freo without Fyfe play like they did in the 4th quarter against Gold Coast (without Fyfe), Adelaide is the value bet.


Adelaide $2.42 v $1.67 Freo

I can't be backing Freo away from WA at those odds.
 

NYRB

Club Legend
Oct 6, 2011
2,558
877
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
Unibet are too gutless too post their Total Match Points for this week. Best odds from: Neds, Sportsbet, TAB, Palmer Bet and TopSport. Can get a decent margin with combined bookmakers of around 10.92%. (which I think is the lowest margin since ive been looking at this market closely this season)

1593584253054.png
 

NYRB

Club Legend
Oct 6, 2011
2,558
877
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
Goal Distribution for games at Marvel stadium this season:

47 goals in 1st quarter, 38 goals in 2nd quarter, 40 goals in 3rd quarter, 32 goals in final quarter from 9 matches.

Games at Marvel are getting, uglier an uglier it would be fair to say. Just been noticing that pattern this year, with the shorter quarters, teams that are leading , are more likely to pass the ball around in the final minutes of a quarter to preserve their lead and less likely to take risks. (The Saints tactics last week went against this trend)

Based on stats, you have to bet on first quarters being the more higher scoring quarters. Under the 20 minute quarters, i think the 3rd quarters used to be often the favourite in being the highest scoring quarter of a match.
 

squeaky1000

Senior List
Apr 30, 2018
154
218
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Parish 15+ $2
Continued to play the awful forward pocket role last week but with Merrett out hoping he finally sees a bit of midfield time, could spend some time on a wing potentially. He gets even half the game up the ground and he'll cover this easily
 

Top Bottom