AFL 2020 - AFL Round 5

[NYRB]

I fancy the Blues v Saints to go overs . Saints played a non stop style of football last week. Even when up be a few goals at the end of each term, the coaches tactic was to sort of play on at all cost, which led them to conceding a goal late in the 3rd quarter last week.

 

[NYRB]

Noticed Unibet are not putting their 'Total Match Points' a day out from an AFL game.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Like the unders in the NM/WB game.
WB ave points 2020: 51.75
NM ave points 2020: 62.5
= 114.25

Dogs are the better team, but struggle to score and have lost Naughton and Lloyd.
North will struggle with the dogs pressure, are heavily reliant on Brown and Zurhaar, have lost Ziebell after which comes Xerri, Mahoney and Taylor.
u126.5 $1.91 b365
u120.5 $2.26 BE

 

[langdon19]

Noticed Unibet are not putting their 'Total Match Points' a day out from an AFL game.

Surprised anyone can get a bet on with these pricks, lost money to them and still got limited.

 

[targett]

 

[targett]

 

[burge13]

Assuming Treloar comes in for Steele so not much lost there but who comes in for Howe?

Still think Pies win as the Dons are ordinary at best but trying to gauge Howe's loss.

 

[NonPhixion]

Assuming Treloar comes in for Steele so not much lost there but who comes in for Howe?

Still think Pies win as the Dons are ordinary at best but trying to gauge Howe's loss.

Howes loss is absolutely huge, no doubt about it. Madgen most likely comes into the side but we can’t replace a player like Howe.

 

[burge13]

Howes loss is absolutely huge, no doubt about it. Madgen most likely comes into the side but we can’t replace a player like Howe.

Agreed over the season, but against an average side like the Dons it shouldn't hurt as much. Madgen/Moore/Crisp/Maynard should be enough to stop the ordinary forwards you're against?

 

[NonPhixion]

Agreed over the season, but against an average side like the Dons it shouldn't hurt as much. Madgen/Moore/Crisp/Maynard should be enough to stop the ordinary forwards you're against?

I’d say this is probably true, but also given it’s the first game without him, it might take a couple weeks to re-structure the backline. He was in seriously good form before going down so can understand the line shortening in Essendons favour

 

[mookieb]

Agreed over the season, but against an average side like the Dons it shouldn't hurt as much. Madgen/Moore/Crisp/Maynard should be enough to stop the ordinary forwards you're against?

Ordinary forwards? Tippa, Fantasia, Devon Smith and Stringer? McKernan impacts games at times and Hooker can switch forward.

 

[burge13]

Ordinary forwards? Tippa, Fantasia, Devon Smith and Stringer? McKernan impacts games at times and Hooker can switch forward.

Tippa is getting about 5 kicks a game this year. Stringer is the most overrated player I can remember. Smith hasn't looked the same this year, Fantasia hasn't been good for 12-18 months? I'm happy calling this forward line ordinary tbh. Certainly not a finals worthy forward line

 

[JuniorWatch]

Tippa is getting about 5 kicks a game this year. Stringer is the most overrated player I can remember. Smith hasn't looked the same this year, Fantasia hasn't been good for 12-18 months? I'm happy calling this forward line ordinary tbh. Certainly not a finals worthy forward line

Have to agree with all of that except that Smith has been in great touch playing mid and has kicked a goal every game he's played.
They all have the ability to take the game away from you but none of them, save Smith, are in form.

 

[NYRB]

if the Crows play like they did on the 3rd quarter last weekend, and Freo without Fyfe play like they did in the 4th quarter against Gold Coast (without Fyfe), Adelaide is the value bet.


Adelaide $2.42 v $1.67 Freo

I can't be backing Freo away from WA at those odds.

 

[iluvparis]

Most outsiders would look a good bet if you judged them on their best form and their opposition on their worst

 

[NYRB]

Unibet are too gutless too post their Total Match Points for this week. Best odds from: Neds, Sportsbet, TAB, Palmer Bet and TopSport. Can get a decent margin with combined bookmakers of around 10.92%. (which I think is the lowest margin since ive been looking at this market closely this season)

 

[NYRB]

Somebody from Neds, get your act together, 50% margin is deplorable !

 

[NYRB]

Goal Distribution for games at Marvel stadium this season:

47 goals in 1st quarter, 38 goals in 2nd quarter, 40 goals in 3rd quarter, 32 goals in final quarter from 9 matches.

Games at Marvel are getting, uglier an uglier it would be fair to say. Just been noticing that pattern this year, with the shorter quarters, teams that are leading , are more likely to pass the ball around in the final minutes of a quarter to preserve their lead and less likely to take risks. (The Saints tactics last week went against this trend)

Based on stats, you have to bet on first quarters being the more higher scoring quarters. Under the 20 minute quarters, i think the 3rd quarters used to be often the favourite in being the highest scoring quarter of a match.

 

[NYRB]

Highest Scoring Quarter for Carlton v Saints (from overseas bookies and Australian)

1st Quarter : $3.75
2nd Quarter: $3.60
3rd Quarter: $3.30
4th Quarter: $3.60

 

[JuniorWatch]

Brad Hill has always loved the open spaces of the MCG.
Averaged 31 possessions from 2017-2019 (31 x 0.8 = 25 possessions in 2020 language).
Had 25 against the Pies in Round 3.
20+ $2 SB
25+ $4.50 SB
30+ $15 TAB

Edit: Disregard entire post, game is at marvel lol
Blues home game. Bloody 2020

 

[5 Bucks]

Pity the game is at Marvel!

 

[JuniorWatch]

Pity the game is at Marvel!

hahahaha.
Have to keep those stats til next time!

 

[BuddysBuddy23]

Would be cautious adding Docherty to any same game multis for 20+ possies tomorrow night. Geary is set to return and from all reports will do a fwd tagging role on Doc who has been in great form

 

[JuniorWatch]

BetDeluxe $2 faves ($50 max bet)
Saints
Pies
Tigers
WC

 

[squeaky1000]

Parish 15+ $2
Continued to play the awful forward pocket role last week but with Merrett out hoping he finally sees a bit of midfield time, could spend some time on a wing potentially. He gets even half the game up the ground and he'll cover this easily