AFL 2020 - AFL Round 5

[dontlimitme]

$100 collingwood 1-39/Under 119.5 double @ 2.40 on Sportsbet

 

[Islanda22]

2.5u Grundy 150+ supercoach points $2.10 (TAB)

Wet weather = more stoppages. Up against Phillips who he should destroy.

Not sure why you are underestimating Phillips as a Ruckman mate

Can see him getting 50% of hitouts against Grundy

 

[JuniorWatch]

Phillips is a better ruckman that Belly imo.
And those TAB SC markets are Pointsbet level bad these days.
He averages 133 and has hit 1/4. Should get better than $2.10.

 

[Atavistic]

Not sure why you are underestimating Phillips as a Ruckman mate

Can see him getting 50% of hitouts against Grundy

Doubt it, but I hope you're right.

 

[NYRB]

Grundy averages 133 in Super Coach points this season.

Grundy has scored 150+ points in 6 of his last 23 matches. At $2.10 to get 150+ points on TAB , that represents poor value to me. Would want odds of at least $3.50 for 150 or more SC points.

I do agree though in wet conditions he can get more 'hit outs' to advantage which should lead to an increase in Super Coach points for Grundy.

 

[Parko31]

Daicos
C. Brown
Phillips
AGS
$13.75

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Might just wait until quarter then half time and do Pies + Total bets. Ive got no read on this game

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[NonPhixion]

How Terrible are these SportsBet BYO markets.
seriously if you data analysts at SB are reading this lift your game.
Come on NYRB back me up here

 

[Robo87]

3.5u Collingwood SU, Pendlebury 15+, Shiel 15+, McGrath 15+ @ $1.80 (SB)
2u Adams over 19.5 @ $1.97 (lads/neds)
1.25u Parish AGS @ $3.20 (365)
1.25u D.Smith AGS @ $3.20 (BE)

Confident that Collingwood bounce back from a game they should’ve won. Pendles, Shiels, McGrath all been the main ball winners for their sides this season.

Happy to take the price on Parish and Smith, definitely rate these higher than the 30~% chance that the bookies are suggesting. Both take almost a shot a game.

I like these, tailing. (Both parish and Smith actually average 1.1 /game ytd too.)
Just be aware for sgm on sb - [terms 2. To be eligible for bonus bet back, Minimum total odds of the Same Game Multi must be $2.00.]
so ive added Grundy 10+ to make it @2.

edit: adding this just to make it interesting
0.2u parish 2g+ @9.5 b365
0.2u parish 3g+ @51 b365
0.2u D.Smith 2g+ @15 be
0.2u D.Smith 3g+ @81 sb

 

[one eyedtiger]

SGM with TAB combined odds $5

McGrath 20+ touches @ $1.55
Devon Smith AGS @ $2.50
Total points under 119.5 @ $1.44

 

[JuniorWatch]

Freo gone in tall against the crows.
Feel like the value is with Lobb with Sean Darcy back in the side.
AGS $1.90 Lads
2+ $4.50 sb
3+ $14 sb
4+ $56 sb

Value SGM: Total o123.5, Freo WIN, Taberner 3+ = $14.50 @ Topsport ($7.75 at SB)

 

[Parko31]

I thought the same thing but you'll notice that the bombers have also brought in Laverde so that should free up Parish to move into the middle.

"Expect to see more time in the middle for Darcy Parish and Kyle Langford, while club debutant and former Roo Mitch Hibberd is a ready-made inside midfielder who averaged 24 disposals and seven tackles for Williamstown in the VFL last season."
Posted on Essendons website today

 

[Parko31]

How Terrible are these SportsBet BYO markets.
seriously if you data analysts at SB are reading this lift your game.
Come on NYRB back me up here

They're doing a perfect job at taking suckers money if you ask me. They DON'T want you to win.

 

[NonPhixion]

Freo gone in tall against the crows.
Feel like the value is with Lobb with Sean Darcy back in the side.
AGS $1.90 Lads
2+ $4.50
3+ $14
4+ $56

Value SGM: Total o123.5, Freo WIN, Taberner 3+ = $14.50 @ Topsport ($7.75 at SB)

$1.90 is near SMACK territory

 

[NYRB]

Points line for Bombers v Collingwood at 111.5 pts 10 minutes before bouncedown.

 

[GROTTO]

$1.90 is near SMACK territory

Is it SMACK time?

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Jordan De Goey over 61.5 fantasy points @ 1.90 (Topsport), looks like more mid time tonight.

 

[NYRB]

David King brought up an interesting stat, since the Covid break, teams leading by 7 points or more at Quarter Time, have gone on to win 16 wins, 1 Draw and 0 Loss.

 

[NYRB]

if Bombers start well and lead by around 2 goals at quarter time, reckon might be worth getting on them.

 

[NonPhixion]

Is it SMACK time?

 

[tangolikelama]

Woooohoooo Stephenson $$$

 

[Atavistic]

Freo gone in tall against the crows.
Feel like the value is with Lobb with Sean Darcy back in the side.
AGS $1.90 Lads
2+ $4.50
3+ $14
4+ $56

Value SGM: Total o123.5, Freo WIN, Taberner 3+ = $14.50 @ Topsport ($7.75 at SB)

Tailed. Looks like he kicks goals whenever he and Darcy play together.

 

[Stevi_Tigers]

Sb stevo promo was jam congrats to those getting on

 

[dontlimitme]

thank you stevo! cheeky bonus bet flutter

 

[dontlimitme]

carn the rain! go unders!