AFL 2020 - AFL Round 6

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TigerGlory

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 30, 2006
7,765
1,076
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Bonbeach Sharks
Does anyone ever feel like theres a greater power just purposely doing all sorts of ridiculous things just to ensure you don’t win your bets?

last night I backed Brisbane to cover the line (-6.5) and they put in the most limp and pathetic second half from a premiership favourite.
Tonight I went Pies v Hawks over 118 match points and there were no goals kicked in Q2 or Q3. I mean my ******* ass.
 
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cznsnowy91

Senior List
Sep 19, 2015
208
185
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Elliot kicked too far out and then also had a snicko deny him on the post. Now puopolos kick gets intercepted right on the line - It's been one of those nights again.
haha I tailed an earlier bet for Elliot 2+ 3+ on lads. Seems like he spent the majority of his time in the midfield which isn't ideal
 

md20

Rookie
Apr 24, 2020
36
33
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Does anyone ever feel like theres a greater power just purposely doing all sorts of ridiculous things just to ensure you don’t win your bets?

last night I backed Brisbane to cover the line (-6.5) and they put in the most limp and pathetic second half from a premiership favourite.
Tonight I went Pies v Hawks over 118 match points and there were no goals kicked in Q2 or Q3. I mean my ******* ass.
I know the feeling mate.
Had a very good year last year with the disposal market. This year...Just can't seem to get it right. Think I might go back to lurking for a while and tail every ones bets haha. Some solid posters in here with some really good picks

On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Jun 23, 2020
43
33
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Does anyone ever feel like theres a greater power just purposely doing all sorts of ridiculous things just to ensure you don’t win your bets?

last night I backed Brisbane to cover the line (-6.5) and they put in the most limp and pathetic second half from a premiership favourite.
Tonight I went Pies v Hawks over 118 match points and there were no goals kicked in Q2 or Q3. I mean my ******* ass.
How about Stephenson playing half back? Get fkd
 

NYRB

Club Legend
Oct 6, 2011
2,513
845
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
Could have got some pretty good odds tonight if you back on Unders. Even though I knew rain would come down in the 2nd half, to see only 32 points scored in 2nd half was some ugly viewing.

Hawthorn didn't seem very daring, seemed a bit too conservative when 5-6 goals down.
 

Prochard123

Premiership Player
Jul 28, 2014
4,657
2,815
AFL Club
Collingwood
1 unit ~ $100

1. Treloar & Mitchell to both get most disposals on their team (1 unit) - Win
2. Treloar to beat 89.5 DT (1 unit) - Win
3. Treloar to beat 26.5 disposals (1.2 units) - Win
4. Sicily to beat 69.5 DT (1 unit) - Win
5. Grundy to beat 104.5 DT (1 unit) - Loss

Decent run. Really wasn't sure on Grundy but had 1 unit spare so went yolo lol... The other 4 were absolute steals, especially Sicily, my personal DT line was roughly 107.5 - meaning I would've gone with overs even if the line for Sicily was 107.5. Rarely do you have such a huge margin (38 points).

Hopefully I don't jinx myself and fingers crossed for tomorrow :)
 

BuddysBuddy23

Club Legend
Mar 28, 2012
1,745
2,766
3rd spooky castle on left
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Pittsburgh Steelers Perth Scorchers
Treloar $3.60 for 30+ tonight with Bet365. Had 30 in his return last week v Ess. I think against our mids he will be allowed to do as he pleases
4.00 @ PointsBet
Money to be made v our mids. Could say the same v our key backs after the past fortnight(Himmelberg 4,Finlayson 4,Cameron 2, Mihocek 4-And Hipwood 3 & McStay 2 Rd.1)
 

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mouncey2franklin

Premiership Player
Jun 16, 2018
3,639
5,044
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Anybody give Freo a chance tomorrow?

The Saints have looked good under the roof at Colonial and useless elsewhere (i.e. their one game at the 'G).

I remember somebody posting on here about how when a player goes to a new team, when they play the old team, perhaps they bring some good 'IP' with them.

Don't know if anybody has ever done the stats on that, but it makes sense to me.

Acres should have been able to offer some insights to the coaching panel during the week.

But those Freo injuries leave them in a sad, sad state.

Main concern is losing Logue, that backline looks woeful on paper. Loading up on Membrey and King to kick loads of goals.

Membrey 2g+ 3g+ 4g+ @ 2.40, 5.50, 15

King 2g+ 3g+ 4g+ @ 2.50, 6.50, 20

Similar bets with Dan Butler and Fyfe for 2g/3g.

Small multi on King 2g+, Butler 2g+, Fyfe 20+, St.K 25+ @ 18.5
 

BuddysBuddy23

Club Legend
Mar 28, 2012
1,745
2,766
3rd spooky castle on left
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Pittsburgh Steelers Perth Scorchers
Anybody give Freo a chance tomorrow?

The Saints have looked good under the roof at Colonial and useless elsewhere (i.e. their one game at the 'G)
I don’t see any scenario where Freo walk away with the W here. Watching last weeks match v Adel was cringeworthy. They’re backs are depleted, they’re tall fwds are sub par and the midfield is very reliant on Fyfe & Walters(When he rotates through). If St.K start well and get the game on their terms I can see it being one way traffic for most of the match
 

NYRB

Club Legend
Oct 6, 2011
2,513
845
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
I give Freo a chance, Longmuir is trying to get Freo to play an exciting fast brand of footy this season but the cobwebs from Ross Lyon are still there. You just dont just go from a slow tempo to a fast tempo side in the space of a season and expect wins. Important game for Freo, I think if they can get to 2-4 heading back to the WA hub, they can cause some havoc with a possible stretch of 8 games or more in WA. And who knows with the talk of where Finals and Grand finals could be played, the Dockers going back on home turf and getting a 5-3 or 6-2 run or better is a strong chance.

Freo are every chance to knock off the Saints today, add to the fact that Freo have been up in QLD for almost 5 weeks now.
 
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Jammer

Team Captain
Jun 26, 2007
565
402
St Kilda
AFL Club
Adelaide
Hard year to read would be an understatement.

I like Port in this spot v GWS.
They have close to their full team in.... I'm prepared to forgive them
for their first loss after being up for the whole season.. Vs
A hot lions home team.
I think they are a good chance to bounce back hard.

I have a soft spot for the Hawks and I can tell you they were
horrid v GWS ( took that to another level last night too )
IMO that win is over inflated and sets the Gaints up for a slightly off
performance on the road v Port who I rate around a $1.65 shot

Port 1 unit win $1.95 Sportsbet
 

NYRB

Club Legend
Oct 6, 2011
2,513
845
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
Betting on Goals:
Tim Kelly 2+= $7
Tim Kelly 3+= $31
Tim Kelly 4+=$101

Elliot Yeo 2+= $10
Elliot Yeo 3+= $61
Elliot Yeo 4+=$101

Waterman 2+= $5.50
Waterman 3+=$21
Waterman 4+= $101

Cripps 2+=$4.20
Cripps 3+= $13
Cripps 4+= $51

Sheed 2+= $9.50
Sheed 3+= $51
Sheed 4+=$101

Nic Nat 2+= $8.50
Nic Nat 3+= $41
Nic Nat 4+=$101

Oscar Allen 2+= $3.50
Oscar Allen 3+=$10
Oscar Allen 4+=$36

Andrew Gaff 2+= $18
Andrew Gaff 3+=$126

Ah Chee 2+ = $7.50
Ah Chee 3+=$34
Ah Chee 4+= $101

McAdam 2+= $8
McAdam 3+= $36
McAdam 4+= $101

Liam Ryan 2+, Darling 2+, Kennedy 2+ @ $9.20 with the SB Boost

West Coast will want to win well and boost percentage at the same time. Interesting to note in terms of the AFL ladder, if West Coast were to win by a big margin (around 100 points or more) could move up the ladder from 15th to 5th depending upon how results went as well. The way Adelaide played last week, Im not sold that their slower midfield can get enough of the ball first-use. Todays question, shouldn't be if West Coast will win, it should be a question of by how much. I don't expect the Eagles to play a slow brand of footy.
 
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Sausage Legs

All Australian
Sep 17, 2014
653
607
AFL Club
West Coast
Elliot kicked too far out and then also had a snicko deny him on the post. Now puopolos kick gets intercepted right on the line - It's been one of those nights again.
Poppy is horrendous for goalscorers. Has gone like 5 out of last 22. But yeah unlucky on both.
 

JuniorWatch

Club Legend
Jun 13, 2016
1,311
1,899
AFL Club
Essendon
Expect Keays (good matchup, elite runner) to latch on to Gaff today.
Swans did the same last week with Ryan Clarke and limited him to 18.
Gaff u27.5 $1.88 Lads
Gaff u25 $2.70 B365

EDIT:
nibbles at some relative value
Yeo most disposals match: $23 PB (inside mids do well against the crows, Yeo historically lifts w/o Shuey)
Sheed most disposals match: $15 TAB (ave. o25 vs. ADE 2018/2020)
 
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squeaky1000

Debutant
Apr 30, 2018
148
214
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Couple of fantasy middles between lads and bet easy
Steele 86.5 and 90.5
Walters 75.5 and 79.5

Hitting Tucker under 19.5 touches - expected more opportunity for him last week with no Fyfe but still didn’t see a lot of time in the middle with Mundy and Brayshaw preferred, and only had 70% tog. Can’t see those opportunities increasing now that Fyfe’s back in

Also SGM: Steele, Ross, Jones 15+, Saints h2h $2.15
 

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