- Jun 16, 2018
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- North Melbourne
AFL 2020 - AFL Round 6
- Thread starter balmainforever
- Start date
- Tagged users None
- Apr 6, 2016
- 632
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- Brisbane Lions
Yep, King has drifted out to $3.25. Rankine was $15 in the rising star market pre-game. He's now into $5.50 on Sportsbet. He should get the nomination this week. If he plays another game like that, he will be outright favourite. I jumped on at the $5.50.
Don't get the drift on gws! Ward in and now out to $2.00 vs port $1.80
squeaky1000
Team Captain
- Apr 30, 2018
- 368
- 880
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
SGM: GWS 1-39, Kelly and Whitfield 15+ $2.87
Whitfield more disposals than Boak $1.88 bet easy - expecting Boak to get De Boer, only line or h2h market I can find on any bookie involving him
Whitfield more disposals than Boak $1.88 bet easy - expecting Boak to get De Boer, only line or h2h market I can find on any bookie involving him
- May 16, 2014
- 12,163
- 15,984
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- Carlton
Few looks today
GWS $2 Pointsbet (win if lead at halftime hence why I took it here)
Greene 2G $2.75 Lads
Can't work out why Port are favourites. Hipwood, McStay and McInerney put their undersized defence to the sword, might be slipper today but Himmelberg in particular is a very smart player with deft touches, and Cameron and Finlayson are still able to get on the lead for a chest mark. Midfield advantage GWS. Charlie Dixon a very good wet weather forward but probably a bit too predictable today, Haynes should come across and kill the ball everytime it gets pumped long to Dixon.
Parker 25+ $2.60 Lads
Florent 20+ $1.87 Lads
Richmond -3.5 $2 Lads
Richmond $1.70 Pointsbet (same as GWS)
Castagna
1G - $1.67
2G - $4.50
3G - $15 (Sportsbet)
Tigers should still win. Still advantages all over the ground on paper. I think wet conditions helps a slippery forward like Castagna, long kicks to top of the square that go to ground, and he'll certainly have his head over the ball - crumbs and free kicks. Tigers don't tag and mids and wings pick up touches against them.
Dale
1G - $1.77
2G - $5
3G - $20 (Lads)
Schache
1G - $1.53 (B365)
2G - $2.75
3G - $7. 50 (Lads)
I think Carlton have the same issues around pressuring Dogs ball users and defending leads as North do. Carlton actually do OK on the high ball, but Dogs are quick to find space and have open free players to kick to leads. Bruce might turn these bets into turds if he gets on a few but I like the Dogs to share it around.
If Bailey Smith gets a disposal or fantasy line around about his average, I'll take the unders (week after a concussion - seems to occur reasonably often). Also if not down heaps closer to the game, will probably hammer Dogs on Pointsbet. They had a bad first 2 rounds but they're a class ahead of where we are at since.
Edit!: never mind about pointsbet, it's not applicable to Sunday games. Better odds elsewhere
GWS $2 Pointsbet (win if lead at halftime hence why I took it here)
Greene 2G $2.75 Lads
Can't work out why Port are favourites. Hipwood, McStay and McInerney put their undersized defence to the sword, might be slipper today but Himmelberg in particular is a very smart player with deft touches, and Cameron and Finlayson are still able to get on the lead for a chest mark. Midfield advantage GWS. Charlie Dixon a very good wet weather forward but probably a bit too predictable today, Haynes should come across and kill the ball everytime it gets pumped long to Dixon.
Parker 25+ $2.60 Lads
Florent 20+ $1.87 Lads
Richmond -3.5 $2 Lads
Richmond $1.70 Pointsbet (same as GWS)
Castagna
1G - $1.67
2G - $4.50
3G - $15 (Sportsbet)
Tigers should still win. Still advantages all over the ground on paper. I think wet conditions helps a slippery forward like Castagna, long kicks to top of the square that go to ground, and he'll certainly have his head over the ball - crumbs and free kicks. Tigers don't tag and mids and wings pick up touches against them.
Dale
1G - $1.77
2G - $5
3G - $20 (Lads)
Schache
1G - $1.53 (B365)
2G - $2.75
3G - $7. 50 (Lads)
I think Carlton have the same issues around pressuring Dogs ball users and defending leads as North do. Carlton actually do OK on the high ball, but Dogs are quick to find space and have open free players to kick to leads. Bruce might turn these bets into turds if he gets on a few but I like the Dogs to share it around.
If Bailey Smith gets a disposal or fantasy line around about his average, I'll take the unders (week after a concussion - seems to occur reasonably often). Also if not down heaps closer to the game, will probably hammer Dogs on Pointsbet. They had a bad first 2 rounds but they're a class ahead of where we are at since.
Edit!: never mind about pointsbet, it's not applicable to Sunday games. Better odds elsewhere
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2.5 units Giants H2H at $2.10
- Mar 27, 2018
- 7,224
- 18,912
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- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Sutcliffe is a known tagger, who do people think he will go to?
- Jun 13, 2016
- 2,338
- 20,583
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- Essendon
Plays today:
Syd vs. Rich
Chol AGS $3.75 Lads
Martin u22 - $2.05 b365 (betting trend is against me here because of increased predicted mid mins but has a 3 game ave of 19.5 and should cop Clarke/Hewett tag in low poss, wet weather game)
Martin u20 - $3.15 b365
Higgins most disposals - $36 PB
GWS vs. Port
Whitfield most disposals $5.50 TAB (off the back of some tagging observations to other players above)
Finlayson 2+, 3+ - $3.75, $12 (from NonPhixion)
Lightnight strike twice SGM: Finlayson 4, Himmelberg 4 - $2001
Dogs vs. Blues
Mclean to Docherty
McLean AGS - $2.60
Docherty u22.5 $1.92
Tailing Dale GS from above
J. Martin 2+, 3+, 4+ - $6, $26, $101 (returned forward last fortnight)
Syd vs. Rich
Chol AGS $3.75 Lads
Martin u22 - $2.05 b365 (betting trend is against me here because of increased predicted mid mins but has a 3 game ave of 19.5 and should cop Clarke/Hewett tag in low poss, wet weather game)
Martin u20 - $3.15 b365
Higgins most disposals - $36 PB
GWS vs. Port
Whitfield most disposals $5.50 TAB (off the back of some tagging observations to other players above)
Finlayson 2+, 3+ - $3.75, $12 (from NonPhixion)
Lightnight strike twice SGM: Finlayson 4, Himmelberg 4 - $2001
Dogs vs. Blues
Mclean to Docherty
McLean AGS - $2.60
Docherty u22.5 $1.92
Tailing Dale GS from above
J. Martin 2+, 3+, 4+ - $6, $26, $101 (returned forward last fortnight)
Any good odds out there on Dylan Stephens (SYD)? Can only find $3 anytime goalkicker at Ladbrokes.
- Mar 27, 2018
- 7,224
- 18,912
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
- Jun 13, 2016
- 2,338
- 20,583
- AFL Club
- Essendon
Skinny winger on debut in the wet. Wouldn't expect a goal fest.
The Ladbrokes app takes forever to load pages....or is it just my phone?
- Jan 21, 2013
- 11,371
- 23,999
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
Went to Whitfield last year iirc and was pretty ineffective... Lachie ended up with 27
- Jan 21, 2013
- 11,371
- 23,999
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
Love Rozee in a multi @2 for ATG
To cheer the boys on.. @76
Port H2H
DBJ 15+
Perryman 15+
Wines 20+ (Boak will get the tag)
Whitfield 20+
Rozee ATG
Greene ATG
Gray 2+
To cheer the boys on.. @76
Port H2H
DBJ 15+
Perryman 15+
Wines 20+ (Boak will get the tag)
Whitfield 20+
Rozee ATG
Greene ATG
Gray 2+
If he tags today I have a feeling he might be following Greene around with Whitfield an outside chance. I can't see Sutcliffe in the midfield rotations so that will rule out Kelly. Looking back at the games he played last season and the potential players he could've tagged there wasn't a real standout shutdown game in terms of possessions of good opposition players.
Bit of value on SB for Papley to kick 2 or 3 goals compared to other bookies
2+ is $2.40 and 3+ is $6
2+ is $2.40 and 3+ is $6
I saw him at $30s mid-week, very regretful not putting something on.
Nothing is really jumping out for me today. I like betting on goals/disposals but the weather radar isn't looking great for the Brisbane/Gold Coast area.
Just taking a couple of small bets for some interest. May add more later.
Port - GWS:
Hopper 15 or more
Rozee AGS
Game total under 124.5
boosted @ 7.40 (SB)
Toby Greene 2 or more
@ 2.40
Just taking a couple of small bets for some interest. May add more later.
Port - GWS:
Hopper 15 or more
Rozee AGS
Game total under 124.5
boosted @ 7.40 (SB)
Toby Greene 2 or more
@ 2.40
- May 20, 2016
- 7,735
- 11,631
- AFL Club
- GWS
got him from 26 to 18 on betfair before the game yesterday, looking good!
- Oct 6, 2011
- 33,190
- 10,060
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
both teams have plenty of motivation to win today. A Giants win mathematically could give them top spot by the end of this round but most importantly cement their position in The Top 4. And Port will want to win to keep top spot. Think as the season goes on, the better sides will play out more tighter affairs. Yesterdays' match between the Saints and Freo produced 152 points but I feel the surge in scoring came in the 1st quarter when the Saints thought they could just wallop the Dockers, and the 3rd quarter where Freo had to push the initiative and try to up the ante. I think todays game will be a tad slower scoring than yesterday.
Want to have a stab on Points again, like the look of 101-110 @ $7, 111-120 @ 6. If teams go all out helter skelter, over 170.5 paying odds of $23 , over 160.5 paying 9/1 which is too good to refuse.
im also finding a bit of a correlation, albeit small, between winning margins and Total points in a game. (R^2=0.042, or R= 0.2049 correlation coefficient). So it indicates to me that games that are lower scoring, generally are tighter. (Model shown below)
Want to have a stab on Points again, like the look of 101-110 @ $7, 111-120 @ 6. If teams go all out helter skelter, over 170.5 paying odds of $23 , over 160.5 paying 9/1 which is too good to refuse.
im also finding a bit of a correlation, albeit small, between winning margins and Total points in a game. (R^2=0.042, or R= 0.2049 correlation coefficient). So it indicates to me that games that are lower scoring, generally are tighter. (Model shown below)
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squeaky1000
Team Captain
- Apr 30, 2018
- 368
- 880
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
Houston over 65.5 fantasy sportsbet
82 and 81 in his last two and should hopefully see some more ball through the midfield today with Boak copping attention and Rocky out
82 and 81 in his last two and should hopefully see some more ball through the midfield today with Boak copping attention and Rocky out
interesting that 'finlayson 2g+ & himmelberg 2g+ @15.75 sb' has come off 2/5 games already this year.
not sure if i like it against port or not but interesting to know still.
1u sgm -rozee ags, finlayson 2g+, whitfield 15+ @9.25 sb
0.3u sgm -rozee ags, finlayson 2g+, marshall 2g+ @33 sb
1u sgm- rozee, westoff, ebert all ags, whitfield 15+ @7.30 lads
not sure if i like it against port or not but interesting to know still.
1u sgm -rozee ags, finlayson 2g+, whitfield 15+ @9.25 sb
0.3u sgm -rozee ags, finlayson 2g+, marshall 2g+ @33 sb
1u sgm- rozee, westoff, ebert all ags, whitfield 15+ @7.30 lads
