AFL 2020 - AFL Round 7

[NYRB]

Bit of food for thought, if betting on points totals, reckon its a good idea to watch at least a quarter until betting. Ill be watching at least a quarter of tonights footy to get a better feel for the game. There seems to be moderate positive relationship between the amount of points scored at Quarter time & The Total Match Points. Correlation coefficient value of 0.49163. One can see from the chart below, if you have matches where its greater than 40 points at the end of the 1st quarter, your generally looking at total scores above 130+. The following chart is for Rounds 2-6 of the 2020 season.

 

[squeaky1000]

Thoughts on Brodie Grundy Fantasy score to be under 112.5?

He has reached over 112.5 3 out of 6 games with scores of 114, 117 and 113

Edit - Line is now 110.5

I'm eyeing off under 108 as a spread bet at Pointsbet. As you've outlined if he clears it I don't think its by much, where as if he has another off game he could go well under. Thought Fort gave a pretty good contest last week and while rain will likely increase hit out opportunities, it's gotta impact Grundy's marking ability around the ground which is where he really racks up points

 

[tangolikelama]

Taking a random free hit - all likely

@106

Selwood 15+
Adams 15+
Maynard 15+
Menegola 15+
Pendles 20+
De Goey AGS
Mihocel AGS
Miers AGS
Gaz AGs
Hoskin Eliiot AGS

 

[Islanda22]

I'm eyeing off under 108 as a spread bet at Pointsbet. As you've outlined if he clears it I don't think its by much, where as if he has another off game he could go well under. Thought Fort gave a pretty good contest last week and while rain will likely increase hit out opportunities, it's gotta impact Grundy's marking ability around the ground which is where he really racks up points

I agree 100%

Fort and Ratu will be competitive in the Ruck stoppages and the rain will impact his disposals. Had a lot of cheap handballs last week which is why he scored in the 50's

 

[NonPhixion]

I agree 100%

Fort and Ratu will be competitive in the Ruck stoppages and the rain will impact his disposals. Had a lot of cheap handballs last week which is why he scored in the 50's

Not sure about Grundy, I think he might be one of those players that’s fantasy score isn’t really weather dependent, if anything it might increase in rain.
my theory is that he isn’t a player that relies on his marking around the grounds to gather disposals/fantasy points. He’s much more a ground-ball get player, wet weather generally increases the tackle count, Grundy had a year high 6 tackles against Essendon in Wet conditions. This combined with more stoppages & potentially more hit outs is a consideration. All IMO

 

[Islanda22]

Not sure about Grundy, I think he might be one of those players that’s fantasy score isn’t really weather dependent, if anything it might increase in rain.
my theory is that he isn’t a player that relies on his marking around the grounds to gather disposals/fantasy points. He’s much more a ground-ball get player, wet weather generally increases the tackle count, Grundy had a year high 6 tackles against Essendon in Wet conditions. This combined with more stoppages & potentially more hit outs is a consideration. All IMO

Yeah like I said he generally get's a lot of cheap touches in the packs

Would need around 25-30 disposals due to more handballs and around 30 hitouts to get over the 100

 

[ShaunWDT]

Ablett AGS at $2.12 Lads and 2+ at $7.50 I’ll take that. Even 3 goals at $34 seems crazy value

Wouldnt be surprised if he played up the ground a bit, essentially 2 midfielders out.

 

[ShaunWDT]

Thoughts on Brodie Grundy Fantasy score to be under 112.5?

He has reached over 112.5 3 out of 6 games with scores of 114, 117 and 113

Edit - Line is now 110.5

Fort and Ratougolea cant tie his shoe laces in ability, hell be huge.

 

[Islanda22]

Fort and Ratougolea cant tie his shoe laces in ability, hell be huge.

Let's hope they have a crack

 

[Robo87]

Wouldnt be surprised if he played up the ground a bit, essentially 2 midfielders out.

If that's the case Who plays fwd more then Parfitt? Dahlhaus?

 

[JuniorWatch]

If that's the case Who plays fwd more then Parfitt? Dahlhaus?

Dalhaus will play more fwd imo.
Parfitt has been playing mid/fwd and run-with roles while in the middle.
I think he'll increase his mid mins without Narkle and Duncan and go to Pendlebury.
He's some value with that and the wet in mind for o71.5 Fantasy BE @$1.88 (3/4 in 2020, 82.0 ave.)
EDIT: Parf price has come in to $1.70 now.
Also like Ablett u63.5 $1.88 BE

 

[NYRB]

Sportsbet have a BYO Featured bet. Any takers in here?

Dangerfield and Pendlebury to get 50+ Disposals combined

 

[NYRB]

Dangerfield seems to step it a gear when the big games are on, same too for Pendlebury. Added in with the wet weather forecast, could combine for big possies.

 

[NonPhixion]

Sportsbet have a BYO Featured bet. Any takers in here?

Dangerfield and Pendlebury to get 50+ Disposals combined

View attachment 913167

Ye I think this is a trap.
their combined line is 44

 

[GROTTO]

Ye I think this is a trap.
their combined line is 44

 

[Prochard123]

Sportsbet have a BYO Featured bet. Any takers in here?

Dangerfield and Pendlebury to get 50+ Disposals combined

View attachment 913167

Pendles did rise to important moments during his prime, but he hasn't been doing this in recent years at all.

His role at contests is no longer to win the ball. He plays like a semi-tagger at contests, and a midfield general during transitions nowadays.

 

[Prochard123]

Ye I think this is a trap.
their combined line is 44

Yes it looks very unlikely, but this low probability is also reflected in the odds.

 

[demon_fanatic]

I'm on AccuWeather and 5-8pm had cloudy conditions with only 30-40% chance of rain,don't know how accurate this site is though, the game is 610pm local or 550pm right?

 

[squeaky1000]

SGM: Pendles, Adams, Maynard, Dangerfield, Selwood 15+ $2.30
Pendles under 83.5 dt
Ablett under 65.5 dt
Treloar most disposals $2.30

 

[NYRB]

Total Match Point Thresholds for Geelong v Collingwood

 

[GROTTO]

Total Match Point Thresholds for Geelong v Collingwood

View attachment 913211

Where do you feel tonights total will sit at?

 

[NYRB]

Where do you feel tonights total will sit at?

A bit hard to say, the way Im reading the weather forecast, it should be a higher scoring half in the 1st half than the 2nd. Forecasts suggest it will start to pour down in the 2nd half. Im a bit more confident the 1st half will be a higher scoring half than the 2nd half. But if you take my predictions from Rd 6- Carlton v Doggies, i predicted UNDERs, and that bet was dead at Half Time. So you can take my predictions with a grain of salt.

 

[targett]

I'm on AccuWeather and 5-8pm had cloudy conditions with only 30-40% chance of rain,don't know how accurate this site is though, the game is 610pm local or 550pm right?

A good indication is Topsport opening u102.5 1.9 which is wet weather footy and now in to u100.5 1.85

 

[Prochard123]

Do we expect rain to start falling before the game or during the game?

 

[FrankGrimes]

Do we expect rain to start falling before the game or during the game?

according to BOM its going to rain throughout the game.
Will be low scoring dont like betting on AGS markets, might only be 5-6 goals per team.