AFL 2020 - AFL Round 7

Remove this Banner Ad

Atavistic

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 22, 2008
8,172
8,096
Hobart
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Team Coco
SGM. Membrey, Butler, Marshall AGS@3.90 at BE. Marshall more likely to score with Ryder in.


IDK why, but getting better odds at BE than SB for this multi.
 
Last edited:
Oct 6, 2011
32,534
9,851
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
Adelaide v St.Kilda Total Match Points, best odds:

1595215860647.png
 

Log in to remove this ad.

alhay6

Debutant
Apr 7, 2019
95
155
AFL Club
Essendon
Adelaide v St.Kilda Total Match Points, best odds:

View attachment 915644
Hey mate why do you waste the time manually doing this for every game when you know the margins are awful? Punting on total team points brackets is one of the easiest way to hand over your money to the bookies. Also think its clogs up this message board abit so would appreciate if you could reduce the posting of it, or maybe make your own separate thread for your bets and analysis?
 
Oct 6, 2011
32,534
9,851
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
Hey mate why do you waste the time manually doing this for every game when you know the margins are awful? Punting on total team points brackets is one of the easiest way to hand over your money to the bookies. Also think its clogs up this message board abit so would appreciate if you could reduce the posting of it, or maybe make your own separate thread for your bets and analysis?


OK no problem. I just thought it might be useful but if you aren't happy with it, I'll stop it.
 

alhay6

Debutant
Apr 7, 2019
95
155
AFL Club
Essendon
OK no problem. I just thought it might be useful but if you aren't happy with it, I'll stop it.
Just think the effort you put into it could be better spent on more +EV markets like goal scorers, disposals, fantasy bets.
 

NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
7,207
18,777
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Also like Zak Jones with the outside speed element.
O72.5 Fantasy $1.85 - lads

Averaging 75 for the year, but this includes a 36 where he got injured and only played 48% TOG. Take this away & he’s averaging 85 which is around where I think the line should be
 

squeaky1000

Team Captain
Apr 30, 2018
368
863
AFL Club
Hawthorn
SGM: Steele, Laird, Smith, B Crouch 15+, M Crouch 20+ $2.15
Ross under 20 disp $1.80
Billings under 22.5 disp $1.88
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

yousnoozeyoulose

Debutant
Sep 7, 2011
120
86
AFL Club
Fremantle
Speaking of Geary, anyone have any info on him? Is he playing that forward role again like he did against Carlton?

He's $3.75 AGS @ Lads
 

NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
7,207
18,777
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Speaking of Geary, anyone have any info on him? Is he playing that forward role again like he did against Carlton?

He's $3.75 AGS @ Lads

I think he will be playing down back tonight, crows don’t have anybody to tag, Laird isn’t damaging enough off HB to go to. Also Long is out so Geary will be needed to straighten up the backline & with Ryder in they are essentially playing 3 tall, Geary included would make them a tad slow IMO.
 
hedge on Adelaide?
Same thing.
one multi 565 collect, the other 210, was hoping to get and take out around 300 cash out offer on the bigger one and let the smaller bet ride.
Hedging would net me 300 profit either way and most likely slightly more than cash out.
Guess you're right, was hoping to have some interest in the game but.
decisions, decisions....
 
Jan 11, 2009
2,189
2,437
melb
AFL Club
Essendon
one multi 565 collect, the other 210, was hoping to get and take out around 300 cash out offer on the bigger one and let the smaller bet ride.
Hedging would net me 300 profit either way and most likely slightly more than cash out.
Guess you're right, was hoping to have some interest in the game but.
decisions, decisions....
So if saints win you get $775, adelaide paying $3.5, put $200 on adelaide, collect $700 or $775 if saint win.
Not sure what it cost you in the first place? I often just put a small amount on the outsider for small profit, better then a loss.(like $50-$100)
 
So if saints win you get $775, adelaide paying $3.5, put $200 on adelaide, collect $700 or $775 if saint win.
Not sure what it cost you in the first place? I often just put a small amount on the outsider for small profit, better then a loss.(like $50-$100)
Yeah 775 collect for 50 dollar outlay but I have Saints at the line -18.5, so need to chuck 400 on Crows at the line to make 300 either way.
 
Oct 6, 2011
32,534
9,851
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
You're having a shocking run so your answer is to try and hit a 23-1 multi? Not sure there's a whole lot of strategy to your punting by the looks of things


Im just not a fan of betting on short odds all the time- in fact I used to ignore bets involving multis. ( I would rarely touch them) My ratio of straight single bets : multis bets was something along the lines of 95% single bets: 5% multi bets in the past. I bet on odds whether it be straight up bets at around even money to multis going at whatever odds these days (range this weekend i think was $3- $100). This 'Same Game Multi' has added another dimension to betting, as 15 years ago, you couldn't do something like this. At 23/1 its supposed to be a bit of a hit and giggle. I have other bets on the match as well, and Im traditionally an 'in-play/live betting' kind of guy. Like to watch a quarter or two before betting on some markets. My Pre-game odds are mainly based on stats and previous history of past encounters.

I personally feel, there is more money to bet made in 'in-play betting' as a sport like AFL can be volatile and see-sawing with: Match Odds, Total Points lines, Quarter by Quarter, Goalscorer markets etc
 
Last edited:
Jun 13, 2016
2,329
20,331
AFL Club
Essendon
King would be my choice
Talia usually plays on the deepest fwd which lately has been King.
Talia is also, size wise, a better matchup for King.
Which is why I like Membrey to get off the chain.
2+ $2.45
3+ $5.75
Membrey more goals than Lynch $2.25 (9 for the year vs. 4)
Lads
Kicked 3 last year against the crows from membrey.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Back