AFL 2020 - AFL Round 9

[Del125763]

His multis are 1/9 but it seems to be working for you?? what haha

i just chose to oppose the bets at the same time as place bets of his. Don't mind giving Sportsbet a free donation.

 

[Prophecy]

1. $100 to $1000 Challenge
Level 1: 20+ Disposals / 1+ Goal: Oliver (MEL) / Fritsch (MEL)
Stake: $100 @ $1.60 (TAB)
Oliver is 7/7 for 20 Disposals this season. Averaging 26 for the last 4 games.
Fritsch is 6/7 for 1 Goal this season. Has kicked 2 goals in each of the last 4 games.

2. 100+ Supercoach Points: Christian PETRACCA
Stake: $100 @ $1.55 (TAB)

3. SGM: Dixon 1 Goal; Viney 15 Disposals, Rockliff 15 Disposals.
Stake: $100 @ $1.80 (Ladbrokes)

 

[Snowboardingoz]

This game will mirror 2017. Similar line ups. Port expected to win. Viney/Gawn/Tracca/Oliver get the dees up.

Dees by 4 goals

 

[Del125763]

SGM: 1u @ $4.40
- Sam Weideman AGS
- Zak Butters AGS
- Ed Langdon 15+ disposals

SGM: 0.4u @ $8.27
- Port Win 1-39
- Justin Westhoff AGS
- Robbie Gray AGS

SGM: 0.6u @ $11.25
- Port Win 1-39
- Jake Melksham AGS
- Robbie Gray 2+

got a sneaky feeling that 1st bet might sneak him. Not sure where your getting $4.40 from but at that price , that should come through.

 

[Del125763]

The Spread betting for Mitch Georgiades :

5 points UNDER v 8 Points OVER

I don't think I can make a case for him to score more than 8 points tonight. Have read that he missed all of 2019 through injury. Think he will score maximum around 7 points tonight? Hard to see him sneak for 2 goals or more. Feel like even for him to score at least 1 goal should be more close to the $1.90 mark.

Was thinking he could snag 12 points tonight. He had done it in WAFL Colts and Round 1 of 2020 but he is still a kid. So if you staked say $100:

(12-8)*100= $400 Profit


If he scores nothing, you lose:

(0-5)*$100=-$500 Loss

 

[Prochard123]

Interesting game tonight...

I'm usually always an Overs type of punter for disposal/dt, but Port is one of the hardest teams to get either of these stats against.

Do I stick to my own valuations and ignore tonight's match or?...

 

[JuniorWatch]

Few SGMs for tonight:
Ladhams 15+ (2/2) , Petracca AGS (4/7), Oliver 20+ (7/7): $5.33 Lads
Petracca o23.5 (4 of last 4), Oliver 20+, Houston u18.5 (to HB): $4.55 SB

 

[sneak]

6u Port vs Melb. Over 121.5 @1.89

 

[AP3XS]

got a sneaky feeling that 1st bet might sneak him. Not sure where your getting $4.40 from but at that price , that should come through.

You can still get that price at BetEasy. Can only get $3.60 at Sportsbet. Probably because BetEasy have Zak Butters @ $2.10 for AGS which is overs IMO.

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Don't mind giving Sportsbet a free donation.

Only had $740 million in revenue two years ago, they need it

 

[squeaky1000]

SGM: Oliver 20+, Langdon Viney and Boak 15+ $1.96 lads

 

[Hellboy101]

Hannan, Weird + Ebert AGS - both teams to kick 50 @6.9 - Lads

Burnt last night with both kicking 50. Cost my sgm

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Little on Kane Farrell AGS @ 2.10 (Sportsbet). Duursma back (plus Amon) means there's no wing role, should play forward

 

[Ohh Ok]

3u Gawn over 105.5 fantasy @ $1.88 (PB)

Got the overs on the big dog who’s averaging 106. Has monstered the lesser rucks this year and no reason why he won’t tonight. Possibly the inform man in the comp and the key for the Dees tonight.

Is it just me or do the bookies seem heaps tighter now we’re into one game a night?

 

[karaoke]

Gawn 150+ SC pts 2.00 TAB
5/7 in ‘20

 

[burge13]

Don't mind giving Sportsbet a free donation.

We all do silly fun bets which are ultimately a donation but still...WTF?!

 

[squeaky1000]

3u Gawn over 105.5 fantasy @ $1.88 (PB)

Got the overs on the big dog who’s averaging 106. Has monstered the lesser rucks this year and no reason why he won’t tonight. Possibly the inform man in the comp and the key for the Dees tonight.

Is it just me or do the bookies seem heaps tighter now we’re into one game a night?

Yeah sportsbet in particular have tightened right up on the SGM value in the last couple matches

 

[Prochard123]

Don't see any value in Viney, Petracca, Oliver, Wines, Boak disposal/DT lines for tonight

 

[Snowboardingoz]

Brayshaw AGS $3.40 topsport is really good odds

 

[Del125763]

3u Gawn over 105.5 fantasy @ $1.88 (PB)

Got the overs on the big dog who’s averaging 106. Has monstered the lesser rucks this year and no reason why he won’t tonight. Possibly the inform man in the comp and the key for the Dees tonight.

Is it just me or do the bookies seem heaps tighter now we’re into one game a night?

I don't usually bet on fantasy but my thinking for Gawn to score above 106 in fantasy, he would need at least 40 hit outs or more? Hit outs =1 point only. (Tackles = 4 points, Kicks= 3 points) Possession wise you would want at least 20+ or so?

 

[Ohh Ok]

2.5u Port Under 64.5 $1.90 (TAB)

 

[Del125763]

Brayshaw AGS $3.40 topsport is really good odds

Tailed.

For a bit of giggle, I reckon he is back to the form of 2018. Taken Brayshaw 2+ @ $19 , and Brayshaw 3+ @ 101

 

[Prochard123]

Got a throw away 3-leg multi for 0.5 units that I don't really care about.

1 main bet for tonight - Ollie Wines under 70.5 DT @ $2.01 - 5 units

 

[AP3XS]

Brayshaw AGS $3.40 topsport is really good odds

SB has him at $3.50 and Lads has him $3.75

 

[Snowboardingoz]

Tailed.

For a bit of giggle, I reckon he is back to the form of 2018. Taken Brayshaw 2+ @ $19 , and Brayshaw 3+ @ 101

Ok I’ll take 2+ let’s ride this home!