AFL 2020 - AFL Round 9

[iluvparis]

You are just ignoring all of my arguments because it suits your agenda

No I am just looking at the historical data in the market you are actually betting into

 

[ShaunWDT]

I won't punt much at all during this period and will definitely stay awwy from SGM, too bigger chance the guy you add to the multi is managed during a game.

 

[ShaunWDT]

2.5u English 15+ @ $1.65 (Lads)
1.5u English 20+ @ $3.75 (lads)
1u Dusty AGS @ $1.60 (TAB)
0.6u Dusty 2+ @ $3.75 (TAB)

Don’t feel like there’s a whole lot of value getting around on tonight’s game in the disposal and goal markets, even the last couple game of the round seemed to be a bit tighter and looks to be the same in the other games this round.

Anyways, found English at 15+ for $1.65 which massively trumps the $1.62 sb are offering for 20+, value! In the last 5 weeks he’s gone 22, 22, 17, 22, 9. We can forgive him for the 9 as it was a slip that definitely doesn’t suit the big man. Tonight we get more favourable conditions against the tiges and big Soldo. Should give big Timmy the opportunity to get into the game and help his side around the ground acting as the extra mid. 20+ at $3.75 looks a great price.

Not ultra confident, but a few ins may see dusty push forward, should score tonight which will give us a little free roll

Any smart Ruck will go to town on how Witts played English, not sure hes getting 20 every week anymore.

 

[Distinctive_]

Richards AGS $2.75 @Tab
5/7 in 20’ with at least 1 scoring shot per game

 

[Del125763]

does anyone know if sportsbet will do disposal over/unders for select players for tonight's game? Feels like they do it for some games and not others

Usually they release that a few hours from kick off, is from my experience. It's not a market I usually touch though.

 

[Del125763]

Richards AGS $2.75 @Tab
5/7 in 20’ with at least 1 scoring shot per game

Tailed

 

[Robo87]

1u Bolton ags @2.05 b365 now into@1.83 (hit 6/7)
0.3u Bolton 2g @5 sb
0.5u higgins ags @3.25 lads

Vandemeers odds seem alright again too for a guy listed at HF,
ags @1.83 sb
2g+ @5.5
3g+ @21
anyone/ StringyDog seen where hes been playing lately? or have heatmap? or will he play more midfield if bont plays more forward?

 

[Johanpetro]

Jack Higgins AGS at $3.25 (lads). Hasn’t scored for 3 weeks, is he due or just playing a completely different role up the ground now? Cheers

 

[burge13]

1u Bolton ags @2.05 b365 now into@1.83 (hit 6/7)
0.3u Bolton 2g @5 sb
0.5u higgins ags @3.25 lads

Vandemeers odds seem alright again too for a guy listed at HF,
ags @1.83 sb
2g+ @5.5
3g+ @21
anyone/ StringyDog seen where hes been playing lately? or have heatmap? or will he play more midfield if bont plays more forward?

Heatmap on the afl app Just click on the player from the list of players in the game

 

[Del125763]

Jack Higgins AGS at $3.25 (lads). Hasn’t scored for 3 weeks, is he due or just playing a completely different role up the ground now? Cheers

Noticed last week he had more time in the midfield. At stoppages in the forward line, he would be there as well.

 

[karaoke]

E Richards AGS - 2.75 TAB
5/7 in '20

 

[Johanpetro]

Bolton $2 AGS beteasy. Has hit 6/7 this year.
Weightman is overs there for 2+ as well at $9. Maybe a nibble on both Bolton/Weightman AGS at $5.25?

 

[Del125763]

PointsBet have a promo:

Dusty Martin & Bontempelli to both score at least a goal, which is payin $4.50

 

[ShaunWDT]

Jack Higgins AGS at $3.25 (lads). Hasn’t scored for 3 weeks, is he due or just playing a completely different role up the ground now? Cheers

Seems to be playing more through the midfield/wing will depend on whether or not Stack and Cotchin back changes that, wouldn't put my house on it but worth a small bet.

 

[AP3XS]

SGM: 1u @ $5.15 (SB boosted)
- Shai Bolton AGS
- Mitch Wallis AGS
- Dustin Martin AGS

SGM: 1u @ $5.17 (Lads)
- Jackson Macrae Most Disposals Group A
- Tom Liberatore 15+ disposals
- Josh Bruce AGS

H2H: 0.5u @ $1.80 (Double your winnings BetEasy)
- WB to win

 

[burge13]

PointsBet have a promo:

Dusty Martin & Bontempelli to both score at least a goal, which is payin $4.50

this is 3.12 boosted at SB. Got a feeling these types of players will spend time forward given the fixtures but that's a hunch on trying to get blokes through as many games as possible.

 

[Daniltchenko You Beauty]

Higgins anytime? Must read this thread.

 

[freo_leo29]

Tab special

Macrae 25+ and Dusty 1 goal @3.50

Worth a shout?

 

[OhhDeledio]

yep higgo ags @3.25 on lads is the best value you'll get this round

 

[mouncey2franklin]

yep higgo ags @3.25 on lads is the best value you'll get this round

Jack Higgins?

Hasn't kicked a goal in the last three matches, has never kicked a goal against the Bulldogs (two matches).

What makes you so confident he will turn it around?

 

[iluvparis]

Jack Higgins?

Hasn't kicked a goal in the last three matches, has never kicked a goal against the Bulldogs (two matches).

What makes you so confident he will turn it around?

Probably because he will take 8-10 marks inside 50 during the game

 

[burge13]

Jack Higgins?

Hasn't kicked a goal in the last three matches, has never kicked a goal against the Bulldogs (two matches).

What makes you so confident he will turn it around?

The theory seems to be with Cotch back he will go forward more

 

[demon_fanatic]

I reckon the bookies have got the total match points line about right for this match. It's a 115.5 with TAB and 117.5 at Sportsbet.


This is one that could go either way in my opinion. One thing I will say about Richmonds performance last week, I know they were missing a few players but their performance last week despite the 2 goal loss, it showed to me they had quite good depth in their list.

Yeh it's pushed up a bit now 120.5 b365 118.5 $1.85 elsewhere

 

[Del125763]

Nathan Brown Same Game Multi Western Bulldogs v Richmond and reasons:

Head to Head: Western Bulldogs (Tigers have no space in their forward line with Jack Riewoldt and Tom Lynch playing together. Sure they get the ball on the lead)
Total Match Points: Over 117.5 points (nice weather up in the Gold Coast tonight)
Anytime Goalscorer: Mitch Wallis (can mark the ball overheard for his size)

That's paying $5.25 , ive tailed him at odds of $3.41 but instead of 117.5 pts, ive taken over 113.5 pts. There you go, I placed the bet following Browny and jinxed the bet. He lost a $2.30 SGM leg on Monday, his shortest so far. (1 win from 8 matches )

 

[Del125763]

My Same Game Multi :

Head to Head: Richmond (think its a real coin toss and the odds are reflective of that)
Total Match Points: Under 118.5 points( I reckon as the game on it will get more dewy and harder to score)
Higher Scoring Half: 1st Half (games at Metricon have been higher scoring in 1st half than 2nd. Can see no more than 60 points in the 1st half, if that happens im confident this will come through.)

thats paying $8.20 with the boost