AFL 2020 Brownlow Medal

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DT_35

Brownlow Medallist
Suspended
Jun 14, 2010
10,941
7,678
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
Denver, Liverpool
Neale polling 3 in R18 f’ed me bad with Petracca most votes last 8 rounds. Rich was easily BOG
 

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Bic

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 20, 2009
6,471
5,881
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Chelsea, Melbourne City, OKC
Needed Dusty 3, Fyfe 2 and Bont 1 in the last round to pull off a nice multi.

I had Trac top 3 on the Fair, obviously equal 3rd so half winnings meant it was a loss as I had under $2 odds. Does that mean whoever lay that bet made a profit from it? Kind of odd when you think of it.
 

shepherdodin

Debutant
Aug 19, 2020
129
137
AFL Club
Sydney
Hmmmm, put in about $2k, made about $4k from what I can tell.

Call it a win, not what I was hoping for but it was fun. Wines / Rowell (got on early before realising it was a dumb idea) / Cripps handicap busted a whole bunch of multis that would have got up otherwise.

Cripps underperforming vs Greene made a whole bunch of H2H multis crash. In hindsight think I was too dependent on Cripps, even though in my personal count I didn't have him so high.

Had a bloody blast though, keen for next year. Big thanks to NYRB , Gazza Guru , Young Gun #6 (some of your SB 3 vote selections really saved me), TheJanuaryMan for making the thread and sharing all your info. Bloody blast mate, please do it again next year!
 

thecatattack

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 2, 2011
13,505
11,956
Hell
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
Indiana Pacers, Celta Vigo, LA Rams
$800 into $1550

Almost 100% ROI, very pleased with the night!

Advice for next year: bigger bets on value team votes, e.g R Marshall, Simpkin, Pendles, Cripps, Greenwood. And smaller bets on those sure things multis where blokes like Menegola can f*** you up!

Big thanks to everyone who contributed over the past 6 months!
I did $380 into $910.

Menegola polling 5 more would've netted me another 1.1k. Neale polling 3 more/Hawks 3 less would've netted me another 1.1k.

3.1k to 900 just from a few votes smfh
 

2121

Premiership Player
Jun 4, 2007
3,211
1,365
somewhere
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
15/18 team votes correct

GC- Had Greenwood no where near 11.
NM- Had Goldy to top theres couple games he didnt poll off some high clearance and hit out games
WCE - Gaff gets me every year with under polling compared to my count, had kelly on 11 and sheed on 10 so wasnt far off.

Menegola the biggest under poller for me with everything else pretty much spot on.
 

Johnsonator

Debutant
Sep 24, 2020
116
144
AFL Club
Essendon
8 out of The Top 10 for me: Merrett and Fyfe underpolled.

14/18 Team Votes
- Simpkin over Anderson
- Greenwood over Rowell
- Kelly over Nic Nat
- Greene over J Kelly

Despite not predicting those 4, I still had individual bets on Greenwood, T Kelly and Simpkin - so can’t complain.
 

Young Gun #6

Norm Smith Medallist
May 24, 2008
6,612
5,509
Melbourne
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Juventus, Suns
Think i ended with about 15k invested, 26k result so happy with that.

Bont and Fyfe getting 10 saved me sooo much though (probably won 10k from those votes) in multi's.


Put a lot of SGM Team Votes on Early and had Cripps, Pendles, Rockliff all at good odds, except f’ed it because nearly all of them had Rowell.

Greenwood polling like 7-8 votes out of his ass was ridiculous.

Thankfully not too many Menegola bets. I actually had none on him at all for a long period as I picked him to be the one to underpoll but then saw a lot of counts here at 14+ and mistakingly threw him in a heap of multi's.


Had a fair bit on Fyfe Top 10 spread across bets too which was a failure.


Won a tonne from expecting Neale + Gawn to poll a heap across BYO's.

And as I said earlier today: Neale/Boak/Trac/Steele boxed first 4 at $3.75 was basically printing money.
 

NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
4,004
5,087
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
very good night, thanks for all the contributions in this thread, was very profitable. Think the bookies took a bit of punishment from us in here.
I have made a mental note that this year players who had really big games in big losses just didnt poll votes. Higgins R7 and Viney R1 were the standouts. Something to look out for next year, seems to have been a bigger emphasis this year on that!
 

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Sportsbet

Debutant
Oct 12, 2020
90
85
AFL Club
Sydney
well done everyone, fyfe and bont clutching the 10 votes at the death helped a lot.

Unfortunately, I got shafted by the 6 way tie for top 20, Menegola 10+ fail and Anderson tying with Touk (ruined H2H multis).

Still got away with a triple figure profit...yay.

Will learn next year. Went too hard with multis, single bets were the go. But my bankroll was relatively low, hence the multi strategy.

Was a fun thread, will be back next year.
 

TheGamblor

Draftee
Oct 16, 2020
3
31
AFL Club
Collingwood
That final voting round was a round from the gods.

Nat Fyfe 2 votes from no where to get to 10, Bont getting one vote to get to 10, Dusty pulling 3 to get to 15, Danger pulling 3 to get to 15, Steele polling 2 to get to 20 and Petracca polling 3 to get to 20. Everything looked gone.

Overall about 2k put in and 14k return, thanks to everyone for all the resources and opinions!
 

WaLkEr_ThE_StAr

Ultimate campaigner
May 8, 2004
4,955
4,333
Where you'd rather be
AFL Club
Carlton
First off, many thanks to all of the contributors across the course of the season, particularly the likes of Gazza Guru, TJM, NYRB who have generated really entertaining and insightful discussion. There are too many to name! On top of this, sheperdodin's spreadsheet was a thing of beauty - particularly when the AFL struggle to put up their own count due to their 'revamped' app being a pile of sh*te.

This is the first year since 2014 that I was allowed to bet on the Brownlow, having previously worked as a videographer for Collingwood and Carlton, which prevented me from being able to bet. Having won $10k back in 2010, and followed the Brownlow so closely between 2010-2014 it is a blast to get back into it.

Menegola hurt 4 of my 15-20 leggers, with him being the only one to bring it down, and all of which would have netted me $4k. Likewise, Crippa being beaten by Greene in his TAB Group hurt, likewise Mundy failing to poll more than Sidey. In the end I profited around $3.8k from around $800 or so outlay.

Fair to say the last round saved my arse! From Fyfe polling 2 from nowhere to nab the Freo votes, Dusty with late votes to push into the Top 10, Bont diving over 10 votes and sit Top 20, Wines coming back to tie with Rockliff. Fair to say it was very lucky! My posts about Pendles vs Adams luckily came to fruition with the proven poller, and umpires favourite eclipsing the more antagonistic, less flashy player in TA.

I hope everyone had a great night and onwards to 2021! :)
 
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Gift

Premium Platinum
Aug 24, 2005
2,914
1,098
Melbourne
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
biggest snub of the night has to be curnow rd 12 33 disposals 16 contested 10 clearances 6 inside 50s 3 rebound 50s 0 votes
Liam Ryan with 4 goals against Essendon and not getting a vote has to be up there too while Barrass gets the 3 votes. Tim Kelly didnt need to do much to get the 1 vote.
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
4,165
1,660
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
Best winner of the night was Bailey Smith at $13 in a game by game voting. I didn't have too many 3 game vote bets but this was one of them.

Also had Collingwood to come Top 2 as a team in the count at $6.00 (ended up being a dead heat with 3 teams)

Didn't have too many multis involving Nic Nat or Menegola but feel that my legs were a bit too long, and the fold bets. One of my fold bets came through, i needed a minimum of 6 legs out of 11 to earn at least a win and it happened to be that : 3 were ties, 4 won, 4 were lost. (The 4 lost bets part of that 11-fold bet, were Shiel for ESS team votes , where I included it as sort of part a free-hit) The 3 ties were Dom Sheed, Laird and the Wines bet. The dead heat rules shaved off 7/8th of the winnings.

I had a Greenwood Gold Coast winner bet as a single bet placed over a month ago at around $10.

Multi wise i should look to concentrate on 2-3 legs next year.

Do feel this year , for some unusual reason quite alot of defenders seemed to poll top votes: Barrass, Harris Andrews , Luke Ryan, Haynes just to name a few. Better to go off you gut feel rather than be too overly statistical. At the end of the day, its about who the most important players that influenced the game. There is value in the handicap betting especially for players with large handicaps to start off with. My Dan Butler +14.5 handicap to win the Saints bet, multi with Dangerfield to beat his group in the handicap failed slightly with Hawkins +4.5 and Guthrie +3.5 beating him. I was kind of expecting Menegola to pull a few more votes, to nullify Guthrie's good night and that didn't happen.
 
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