AFL 2020 Brownlow Medal

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ben0000

Rookie
Oct 16, 2020
30
8
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
First off, many thanks to all of the contributors across the course of the season, particularly the likes of Gazza Guru, TJM, NYRB who have generated really entertaining and insightful discussion. There are too many to name! On top of this, sheperdodin's spreadsheet was a thing of beauty - particularly when the AFL struggle to put up their own count due to their 'revamped' app being a pile of sh*te.

This is the first year since 2014 that I was allowed to bet on the Brownlow, having previously worked as a videographer for Collingwood and Carlton, which prevented me from being able to bet. Having won

Menegola hurt 4 of my 15-20 leggers, with him being the only one to bring it down, and all of which would have netted me $4k. Likewise, Crippa being beaten by Greene in his TAB Group hurt, likewise Mundy failing to poll more than Sidey. In the end I profited around $3.8k from around $800 or so outlay.

Fair to say the last round saved my arse! From Fyfe polling 2 from nowhere to nab the Freo votes, Dusty with late votes to push into the Top 10, Bont diving over 10 votes and sit Top 20, Wines coming back to tie with Rockliff. Fair to say it was very lucky! My posts about Pendles vs Adams luckily came to fruition with the proven poller, and umpires favourite eclipsing the more antagonistic, less flashy player in TA.

I hope everyone had a great night and onwards to 2021! :)
Well done mate.. menangola over 10 votes cost me about 5k. So many multis
 

ben0000

Rookie
Oct 16, 2020
30
8
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
First off, many thanks to all of the contributors across the course of the season, particularly the likes of Gazza Guru, TJM, NYRB who have generated really entertaining and insightful discussion. There are too many to name! On top of this, sheperdodin's spreadsheet was a thing of beauty - particularly when the AFL struggle to put up their own count due to their 'revamped' app being a pile of sh*te.

This is the first year since 2014 that I was allowed to bet on the Brownlow, having previously worked as a videographer for Collingwood and Carlton, which prevented me from being able to bet. Having won

Menegola hurt 4 of my 15-20 leggers, with him being the only one to bring it down, and all of which would have netted me $4k. Likewise, Crippa being beaten by Greene in his TAB Group hurt, likewise Mundy failing to poll more than Sidey. In the end I profited around $3.8k from around $800 or so outlay.

Fair to say the last round saved my arse! From Fyfe polling 2 from nowhere to nab the Freo votes, Dusty with late votes to push into the Top 10, Bont diving over 10 votes and sit Top 20, Wines coming back to tie with Rockliff. Fair to say it was very lucky! My posts about Pendles vs Adams luckily came to fruition with the proven poller, and umpires favourite eclipsing the more antagonistic, less flashy player in

hi mate do you know the reason behind these for tab for me. I can’t work out how I lost money on this despite winning
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freo_leo29

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 20, 2010
5,709
6,499
Perth
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
East Fremantle
Hopefully next year everybody will post their 100% ROI and 200% ROI bet outlays before the count.

:thumbsu:
Most of the bets are posted in here, many of us had over a 100 bets on, it's a long thread to follow but well worth following it all season.

Many of the bets I placed, 10+ multis etc were directly from here with 1 or 2 tweaks.

Definitely recommend following this thread closely, especially about a week out from the Brownlow as there is value to be had when markets first open.
 

MRCB12

Debutant
May 21, 2015
92
126
AFL Club
Richmond
Loved the thread and look forward to participating more so next year and having a go at a count myself.

What could have been last night but close isn’t good enough. Well done to the big winners and hopefully I can provide another count to look at next year.
 

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Young Gun #6

Norm Smith Medallist
May 24, 2008
6,655
5,551
Melbourne
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Juventus, Suns
Neale 25+
Boak, Steele, Trac, Martin, Macrae, Danger 15+
Merrett, Bont, Fyfe, Parker, Menegola, Wines, Guthrie, Pendles, Cripps, Gawn, Oliver, Rockliff, Menegola 10+

$347.90 worth a nibble.

Had $25 on this to win nearly $8000.

fu** you Menegola!! I said at least 3 times he’ll be the one to underpoll:( just doesn’t stand out at all.

I originally didn’t have him either and then decided I’d add him as you can see being the last 10+ in the post.
 

BuddysBiggestFan

Premiership Player
Oct 24, 2008
4,340
3,788
Hawthorn
AFL Club
Hawthorn
just jumped on board Sheed most votes for WC $17 - 365
I gave him 3 today and probably in R1 aswell, so should be leading their count right now, Shuey also has a hamstring so you have to assume he wont play for the next 3-4 weeks. Good price and market hasn't updated for these factors IMO
You smashed this. $51 for 3 in Round 1? What were the final odds for Sheed round 1?
 

NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
4,036
5,124
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
You smashed this. $51 for 3 in Round 1? What were the final odds for Sheed round 1?
Closed at $21 i think. Seemed this year not 1 player who had a big game in a big loss polled 3. I could be wrong but in previous years there has always been a few. Might be something that’s changing in the voting system now.
 

Sausage Legs

All Australian
Sep 17, 2014
874
843
AFL Club
West Coast
Closed at $21 i think. Seemed this year not 1 player who had a big game in a big loss polled 3. I could be wrong but in previous years there has always been a few. Might be something that’s changing in the voting system now.
I thought this. Had a dabble at a few. Simpkin round 3 at 5s into 2.50 and Josh kelly v eagles at 7 were just a couple from memory, but overall win factor seemed to be bigger than normal.
 

LIONS15v

Debutant
Oct 12, 2020
121
98
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Well done to everyone who profited.
Menegola 10+ and Merrett top 10 (finished 11th) let me down big time.
..If only I left the gola leg out 😔
Wish I'd kept it simple with a top 4 bet or something like that..
Ruing that missed opportunity big time.

Anyways, looking forward to the discussions and contributing next year.

Enjoy the winnings!
 

Gazza Guru

Senior List
Jul 11, 2020
283
215
AFL Club
Geelong
Hi all, what a count that was. Certainly some ups and downs.
I cop the Nicnat one on the chin and am never getting on someone with a poor polling history again. I did say that I was putting T Kelly in all that I did with Nicnat which was good. Sheed did well to tie that.
All of Cripps ( amazing price ), Fyfe, Pendles, Mitchell, Wines, Obrien, Marshall, Danger did the job. Shame about the ties.
Whitfield killed me on many monster collects and I kick myself for that. Bont was also poor but I didn’t use him much.
Neale / Boak running 1 / 2 was very good.

Had a solid win but it certainly should have been better.

Thanks to all the regulars, the chat has been fun. Now over to the Cats to win the flag !!
 

Leeroy Brown 15

All Australian
Aug 8, 2010
651
686
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Like many others here had a very very good night with high 4 figure profits but can’t help to think what could have been if Menegola got to 10 votes. Had some very very big multis that fell short purely because of the Gola.

In saying that I hope everyone else did well, lots of posters in here deserved it with the amount of work and analysis they do. For next years count I’ll be looking to create a leaderboard purely for BF users, in which they can log in and enter their 3,2,1 round by round week to week which will then be aggregated at the end of the year (saw this idea from someone in this thread a few weeks ago and would be happy to build it for all the great work that goes on here).

Thanks for all the great and valuable discussions, see you all next year.
 

Young Gun #6

Norm Smith Medallist
May 24, 2008
6,655
5,551
Melbourne
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Juventus, Suns
Closed at $21 i think. Seemed this year not 1 player who had a big game in a big loss polled 3. I could be wrong but in previous years there has always been a few. Might be something that’s changing in the voting system now.
You're definitely right.

Way less polling in any losses over 5 goals this year than the last 5 years or so imo.

They set a precedence in recent years you could poll 3 and 2's in big losses. This year that was ripped under the carpet.

Noteable under-pollers in relatively big losses:

R.1 Viney (expected 3, polled 1): Lost by 27
R.1 Neale (expected 2, polled 0): Lost by 28
R.3 Fyfe (expected 1, polled 0): Lost by 29
R.7 Higgins (expected 2, polled 0): Lost by 54
R.7 Doedee (expected 1-2, polled 0): Lost by 23
R.11 Laid (expected 2, polled 0): Lost by 24
R.12 Mitchell (expected 1, polled 0): Lost by 32
R.13 Trac (expected 1, polled 0): Lost by 28
R.14 Mundy (expected 1-2, polled 0): Lost by 38
R.14 Walsh (expected 1, polled 0): Lost by 24
R.15 Fyfe (expected 2, polled 0), Acres (expected 1, polled 0): Lost by 27
R.17 Guthrie or Stewart (expected 1-2 combined, polled 0): Lost by 26
R.18 Whitfield (expected 1, polled 0): Lost by 52
R.18 Merrett (expected 1, polled 0): Lost by 19
R.18 Anderson (expected 2, polled 0: Lost by 15
 

Young Gun #6

Norm Smith Medallist
May 24, 2008
6,655
5,551
Melbourne
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Juventus, Suns
Just looked if Menegola polled 10 would've won another $13,000 :mad:

Oh well there had to be someone to cost a few multis.

Sidebottom beating Mundy H2H cost me about $5,000 as well.

Can't believe Mundy polled in 1 game in round 5 and no others.

Had 2-3 clear 2nd best on's that he polled 0 instead of 2 in. Ridiculous for what was a good poller playing pure midfield in the 2nd half of the season.
 

LionsOrDieTrion

Senior List
Jun 23, 2020
154
230
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Bloody Toby Greene...missed another 2k on tab because he beat Cripps in his group. Thought he was the type of player to not overpoll. Went JKelly in the attached.
 

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