AFL 2020 Brownlow Medal

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jack 231

Debutant
Jun 17, 2020
135
50
AFL Club
Geelong
The umps have to hand in their votes within an hour after the game and aren't sitting their crunching the numbers. I find it best to do votes strait after watching the game where it's fresh and u have more of a feel for impact than just stats.
Agree
This is what most people forget and dig into the stats and get it so wrong.
Most times I watch a game live I don’t look at stats and get the 3 votes(BOG) right. You get a feel for who played well. Especially at local footy level this is whats relied on- no stats at al
 

shepherdodin

Debutant
Aug 19, 2020
51
52
AFL Club
Sydney
Speaking of crunching numbers.... today I was procrastinating at work and calculated the number of tied-winners for each team up to 18 rounds since 1990. Figured I might as well share.

year, num_ties_after_18_rounds
1990 0
1991 1
1992 5
1993 5
1994 3
1995 1
1996 1
1997 0
1998 2
1999 2
2000 1
2001 1
2002 3
2003 2
2004 1
2005 3
2006 3
2007 3
2008 1
2009 4
2010 3
2011 1
2012 3
2013 1
2014 3
2015 3
2016 3
2017 3
2018 1
2019 1

What this means: after 18 rounds, this many teams had a dead-heat winner in the brownlow count for that year. Since there are only 18 rounds this year, I thought this was more relevant than the total brownlow counts for each year. I couldn't tell you how many byes (if any) teams had each year, so the votes available might be slightly off, but since there are fewer rounds you would expect more dead-heats due to less overall votes. Since 2010 the average is 2.2. So you can expect up to 3 dead-heats, 4 or 5 is an outlier year. Almost certain to get at least 1 dead heat.
 

TheJanuaryMan

Club Legend
Jul 29, 2009
1,235
1,313
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
ROUND 15

HAW v ADEL
3 M Crouch (Adel)
2 R O'Brien (Adel)
1 R Laird (Adel)

WCE v ESS
3 L Ryan (WCE)
2 Z Merrett (Ess)
1 D Shiel (Ess)

RICH v FREO
3 J Graham (Rich)
2 B Acres (Freo)
1 B Houli (Rich)

SYD v MELB
3 L Parker (Syd)
2 J Lloyd (Syd)
1 M Gawn (Melb)

GWS v CARL
3 S Walsh (Carl)
2 N Haynes (GWS)
1 T Greene (GWS)

BRIS v COLL
3 S Pendlebury (Coll)
2 J Lyons (Bris)
1 J Berry (Bris)

LEADERBOARD

21 - L Neale (Bris)
17 - Z Merrett* (Ess) C Petracca (Melb)
16 - J Steele (St K)
15 - T Boak (PA)
14 - D Martin (Rich) P Cripps (Carl) S Menegola (Geel) C Guthrie (Geel)
 

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toxic

Hall of Famer
May 9, 2008
39,339
53,078
GONE
AFL Club
Collingwood
Who polls tonight? I had
3 T Kelly
2 A Gaff
1 L Ryan

Maybe Steele next? Was closer game for 3 from one team, but they stood out to me. I did miss the first quarter. Interested to see what others have.
Kelly
Gaff

Then one of
Clark, Steele or Barass

Nicnat had sweet fa influence on the game..was soundly beaten in the 1st half
 

jack 231

Debutant
Jun 17, 2020
135
50
AFL Club
Geelong
Gents who got on menegola most Geelong votes for $5 - $7

I put $700 @ $6 on this with the intention of cashing some out or hedging across other bookies but there’s no cashout yet and now BetEasy are gone no other bookies have put team vote odds up.

Should I just ride this bet out til the end? What are you guys doing with yours?

The only real risk is that Guthrie and/or danger get votes tonight and menegola doesn’t. Which is definitely possible.

I feel like fair value for this bet would be around $3
 

Sausage Legs

All Australian
Sep 17, 2014
771
712
AFL Club
West Coast
Gents who got on menegola most Geelong votes for $5 - $7

I put $700 @ $6 on this with the intention of cashing some out or hedging across other bookies but there’s no cashout yet and now BetEasy are gone no other bookies have put team vote odds up.

Should I just ride this bet out til the end? What are you guys doing with yours?

The only real risk is that Guthrie and/or danger get votes tonight and menegola doesn’t. Which is definitely possible.

I feel like fair value for this bet would be around $3
I got 150 on at 7s. Cashout is 160. Pretty average on 365.
Was allowed 10 bucks on Steele at 200-1, only 30 cash out tho.
 
Last edited:

jack 231

Debutant
Jun 17, 2020
135
50
AFL Club
Geelong
I got 150 on at 7s. Cashout is 160. Pretty average on 365.
Was allowed 10 bucks on Steele at 200-1, only 30 cash out tho.
I guess just sit on the amount you’re comfortable losing and ride it out

Be close to cashing Steele out after last night tho? Needed a 3 there to have a Vance at winning
 

Sausage Legs

All Australian
Sep 17, 2014
771
712
AFL Club
West Coast
I guess just sit on the amount you’re comfortable losing and ride it out

Be close to cashing Steele out after last night tho? Needed a 3 there to have a Vance at winning
Yeah, he's now not possible in my count so will prob pull the trigger.
Have him top 5 at 21s and top 10 at 12s so will just ride them out
 

Gazza Guru

Debutant
Jul 11, 2020
121
64
AFL Club
Geelong
Gents who got on menegola most Geelong votes for $5 - $7

I put $700 @ $6 on this with the intention of cashing some out or hedging across other bookies but there’s no cashout yet and now BetEasy are gone no other bookies have put team vote odds up.

Should I just ride this bet out til the end? What are you guys doing with yours?

The only real risk is that Guthrie and/or danger get votes tonight and menegola doesn’t. Which is definitely possible.

I feel like fair value for this bet would be around $3
You sure are onto a live one there. Your only current option is to go onto Bet365 and back Guthrie at $3.20. Danger too short at $1.75 so not worth it.
I thought the TAB would have team votes up yesterday before the next round started but they may not have them up until next week now.
Other option is to let it ride for tonight which is what I would do. Menegola is as much chance of polling as the other 2. Tigers will be all over Danger.
 

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Gazza Guru

Debutant
Jul 11, 2020
121
64
AFL Club
Geelong
My model did correctly predict he would poll last year v Port - BUT that was the first Brownlow votes he ever polled so a degree of caution with this match.
i am looking forward to seeing your model tested this year. I have closely followed Brownlow polling for many years and always take polling history into account. I agree 100% with you that defenders poll badly and am sure that all the crew on here agree as well.
However, in my opinion there is no way you can have watched the GWS vs WC game in round 13 and given McGovern 0 votes. He will poll either 1, 2 or 3 votes guaranteed. He has a very poor polling history for sure ( and I stated that n an earlier post ) but he played a blinder and stood out enormously. Nothing like a normal good game by a defender. He’s a big chance to get the 3.
I am pretty sure that you have not watched that game and went off the typical poor defender polling history.
it won’t work for you in that game I’m afraid.
You could not have possibly given McGovern 0 votes if you honestly watched the game.
 
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jack 231

Debutant
Jun 17, 2020
135
50
AFL Club
Geelong
TBH if I had the commentators on mute I don’t know if grimes would’ve been as clear cut 3 votes for me. They talked him up non stop - yep it was a good game by him but the umps obviously wouldn’t have heard all that so no bias / influence. So maybe 3 votes for television audience but would like to hear from someone at the game.

I’ve seen it happen before the commentators basically choose their 3 and persuade the whole Australian audience but umps saw it differently
 

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