AFL 2020 Brownlow Medal

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Gazza Guru

Debutant
Jul 11, 2020
121
64
AFL Club
Geelong
TBH if I had the commentators on mute I don’t know if grimes would’ve been as clear cut 3 votes for me. They talked him up non stop - yep it was a good game by him but the umps obviously wouldn’t have heard all that so no bias / influence. So maybe 3 votes for television audience but would like to hear from someone at the game.

I’ve seen it happen before the commentators basically choose their 3 and persuade the whole Australian audience but umps saw it differently
Definitely a good point and no doubt the Herald Sun and Age journos are mostly watching the games on tv before writing articles and giving votes this year.
It is pretty easy to ignore what they say though if you want to.
Grimes was very good last night but it won’t necessarily correlate to Brownlow votes.
There were no clear midfield stand outs though so a tough game to vote.
 
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TheJanuaryMan

Club Legend
Jul 29, 2009
1,235
1,313
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
i am looking forward to seeing your model tested this year. I have closely followed Brownlow polling for many years and always take polling history into account. I agree 100% with you that defenders poll badly and am sure that all the crew on here agree as well.
However, in my opinion there is no way you can have watched the GWS vs WC game in round 13 and given McGovern 0 votes. He will poll either 1, 2 or 3 votes guaranteed. He has a very poor polling history for sure ( and I stated that n an earlier post ) but he played a blinder and stood out enormously. Nothing like a normal good game by a defender. He’s a big chance to get the 3.
I am pretty sure that you have not watched that game and went off the typical poor defender polling history.
it won’t work for you in that game I’m afraid.
You could not have possibly given McGovern 0 votes if you honestly watched the game.
Let's see. You've been posting here since July this year.
So - unless you have been lurking for 10 years without posting then I'm not sure how you would really know about how I predict the votes nor how I analyse the match on games over that 10 years I've been posting Brownlow predictors on here - nor whether it has been a success or failure. Then again perhaps a few blokes who followed it when it correctly predicted Judd in 2010 through to Fyfe last year could suggest that there is a degree of accuracy in the methods. Same with multiple Team Votes correctly predicted over those years at prices as high as $13

If you want to get so hung up on one match out of all of them - good luck to you. Feel free to back him to get votes in that match and if my predictions prove wrong then feel free to quote it on here for the next year also.
 

Gazza Guru

Debutant
Jul 11, 2020
121
64
AFL Club
Geelong
Let's see. You've been posting here since July this year.
So - unless you have been lurking for 10 years without posting then I'm not sure how you would really know about how I predict the votes nor how I analyse the match on games over that 10 years I've been posting Brownlow predictors on here - nor whether it has been a success or failure. Then again perhaps a few blokes who followed it when it correctly predicted Judd in 2010 through to Fyfe last year could suggest that there is a degree of accuracy in the methods. Same with multiple Team Votes correctly predicted over those years at prices as high as $13

If you want to get so hung up on one match out of all of them - good luck to you. Feel free to back him to get votes in that match and if my predictions prove wrong then feel free to quote it on here for the next year also.
I was more keen to know if you actually watched the WC vs GWS match or used other methods to determine your votes ?
I was only challenging and not meaning to offend you.
 

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shepherdodin

Debutant
Aug 19, 2020
51
52
AFL Club
Sydney
Anyone kind enough to share Carlton team votes? I can see the betfair leaderboard just wanted to see what others had
What I have up to round 15. Cripps way out in front, which is honestly surprising given he hasn't had that great of a year compared to previous years.

I have him:
2 - round 1
3 - round 3
2 - round 9
2 - round 12
2 - round 13

I can see a situation where those 2s are either 1s or he doesn't poll at all. Walsh has been good lately so I think his counts in these last rounds will increase by quite a bit.

CarltonPatrick Cripps11
Sam Walsh4
Marc Murphy4
Eddie Betts4
Sam Docherty3
Matthew Kennedy3
Jack Martin3
Ed Curnow3
 

shepherdodin

Debutant
Aug 19, 2020
51
52
AFL Club
Sydney
Adelaide v Carlton

I found this game hard. Since this game I think matters for the Adelaide count, will be interested to see what others have.

3 M Crouch
2 S Walsh
1 L Sholl

Next Laird maybe? I didn't notice Laird as much even though he got a lot of disposals.
 

Gazza Guru

Debutant
Jul 11, 2020
121
64
AFL Club
Geelong
Zero chance that anything will come of the Neale one. It was a holding the man free kick which was correctly paid.
Blakey hurt his shoulder the previous week and the contact with the ground aggravated the injury. He didn’t hit his head and therefore it won’t even be a fine.
 

jack 231

Debutant
Jun 17, 2020
135
50
AFL Club
Geelong
Macrae and bont have been getting the job done all year.

Wouldn’t surprised if one of them is the silent achiever on Brownlow night
 

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