AFL 2020 Brownlow Medal

[Gazza Guru]

3 Rich - just
2 Neale
1 Walsh

 

[jack 231]

Rather see Rich get the 3. Will be interesting if the umps are swayed by the raging favouritism of Neale though.

Rich 3
Neale 2
Walsh 1

Neale should win outright but I’m not as confident as I was a month ago, the chasing pack hasn’t stopped polling.

Reckon he will win by 1-4 votes but I wouldn’t touch him at $1.20 just needs one game to go against him and Boak Steele or petracca could potentially steal it.


Ive got Boak at $34 and $15 and petracca at $14 which I was going to cash out but will just hold onto now I think

 

[Gazza Guru]

Rather see Rich get the 3. Will be interesting if the umps are swayed by the raging favouritism of Neale though.

Rich 3
Neale 2
Walsh 1

Neale should win outright but I’m not as confident as I was a month ago, the chasing pack hasn’t stopped polling.

Reckon he will win by 1-4 votes but I wouldn’t touch him at $1.20 just needs one game to go against him and Boak Steele or petracca could potentially steal it.


Ive got Boak at $34 and $15 and petracca at $14 which I was going to cash out but will just hold onto now I think

I think that Neale definitely wins and the couple of votes last night are the sealer.
I personally think that Boak is the danger so would not be cashing out that one if I was you. You got on at good prices.

 

[shepherdodin]

I find a few clubs curious, but for now I have some questions about West Coast.

Seems too close to call. I have Naitanui 11, Kelly 10, Sheed 10. Doesn't look like TJM has Naitanui polling much at all, but I think he's been very influential for large parts of the season. Wondering what others think? Here's my votes for each of these FWIW

Naitanui:
R3 - 1
R5 - 2
R8 - 1
R9 - 3
R11 - 2
R12 - 2

Sheed:
R5 - 3
R6 - 2
R9 - 2
R11 - 3

Kelly:
R6 - 3
R8 - 2
R9 - 1
R14 - 1
R17 - 3

I haven't done much proper analysis historically, but I gather that rucks generally have a tough time polling votes. What do others have for WC? Am I off the mark or is it too close to call?

 

[shepherdodin]

Hawks v Suns

3 T Mitchell
2 J Gunston
1 D Moore

Tossing up to give 3 to Gunston or Mitchell. What do others have?

 

[Gazza Guru]

3 Gunston
2 Mitchell
1 Shiels

Mitchell can get the 3 though and a couple of others can get the 1.

 

[Young Gun #6]

3 Dangerfield
2 Menegola
1 Parker

 

[jack 231]

3 Dangerfield
2 Menegola
1 Parker

Cats game an interesting one... danger did absolutely nothing for the first half. Then pretty much won cats the game with 3 goals. Does that get the 3 votes? No one else really stood up so maybe.

 

[shepherdodin]

I don't think it does. He did literally nothing for a half. But he is a vote-magnet so what do I know.

3 Menegola
2 Kennedy
1 Dangerfield

Edit: this gives the win to Menegola by my count. Same for others?

 

[Gazza Guru]

I don't think it does. He did literally nothing for a half. But he is a vote-magnet so what do I know.

3 Menegola
2 Kennedy
1 Dangerfield

Edit: this gives the win to Menegola by my count. Same for others?

I think that Danger will get the 3. Dead quiet first half but sensational after that and definitely had the most influence on the result.
I’m not so sure that Menegola polls.
3 Danger
2 Kennedy
1 Stewart

Menegola next and can poll but I’m not sure he will.
6 point margin and I think that a Swan will poll and Kennedy very good. Papley could also pinch a vote.

 

[shepherdodin]

I think that Danger will get the 3. Dead quiet first half but sensational after that and definitely had the most influence on the result.
I’m not so sure that Menegola polls.
3 Danger
2 Kennedy
1 Stewart

Menegola next and can poll but I’m not sure he will.
6 point margin and I think that a Swan will poll and Kennedy very good. Papley could also pinch a vote.

Thanks for these, potentially wrong on Danger, but it throws my Geelong count into chaos! There's no way Papley polls, he didn't do his job which is to convert. He was great at creating chances, but doesn't poll when he misses them all.

 

[jack 231]

Danger definitely polls just don’t know if it’s 3. no one else stands out and umps don’t have stats to look at which is why danger probably goes in favourite for the 3 but I’ll check this match for any betting value.

Any of - Selwood Guthrie Menegola Kennedy Lloyd Parker Stewart Parfitt Ablett
For the 2 and 1 in my opinion

 

[Gazza Guru]

Thanks for these, potentially wrong on Danger, but it throws my Geelong count into chaos! There's no way Papley polls, he didn't do his job which is to convert. He was great at creating chances, but doesn't poll when he misses them all.

The Geel votes look to be a 3 way thriller and comes down to who polls the best on the night out of Menegola / Guthrie / Danger.

 

[jack 231]

The Geel votes look to be a 3 way thriller and comes down to who polls the best on the night out of Menegola / Guthrie / Danger.

Was sitting happily on my huge menegola bet at halftime. Not so much now but I think it’s still overs ($6) so balls in my court. Potentially can do a 3 way hedge but will suck most the profit out of it

 

[Sausage Legs]

Gunston Titch Moore

Danger Kennedy Parker

Hunter Libba Fyfe

 

[Gazza Guru]

Freo vs Dogs

3 Hunter
2 Fyfe
1 English

Libba then Bont next and the only others who could pinch 1.

 

[shepherdodin]

Freo vs Dogs

3 Hunter
2 Fyfe
1 English

Libba then Bont next and the only others who could pinch 1.

Do you have Macrae or Bont ahead in your count? Macrae just ahead in mine, I just don't have that much confidence, and they tied last year. Was hoping one of them would take the 3 this game to pinch it, but unfortunately not.

 

[Gazza Guru]

Do you have Macrae or Bont ahead in your count? Macrae just ahead in mine, I just don't have that much confidence, and they tied last year. Was hoping one of them would take the 3 this game to pinch it, but unfortunately not.

I have Bont 2 in front. There are a few games where they compete for votes ( Including last 2 rounds prior to this ).
I’ve been thinking about last year where they tied and Macrae had many games with monster possessions. He is not getting as much footy this year, even when allowing for the 20% reduced game time. Bont has certainly influenced games more than Macrae. Admittedly Bont was a little disappointing with his polling last year vs what I had him on and the tie was a surprise to me.
Like many clubs this one can go down to the wire and either could win.

 

[Womboksgalore]

Hi all,
What are our thoughts on how many votes are needed to poll top 20 in the compromised season and will bookies have that market this year?

Traditionally it has been around the 14 votes get you in, there is usually value with some players on the fringe before they get crunched.

And with beteasy now gone, I wonder if sportsbet will lift their BYOB options, beteasy had a heap last year, many of which had value and got up (eg: GC player to poll 5+ votes at $3 saluted after rnd 2 or 3 from memory)

Here's hoping to some value out there!

 

[NYRB]

Freo v Dogs

Fyfe 3
Hunter 2
Bontempelli 1


not basing my votes on stats alone. Hunter for his missed opportunities is not best of ground for me. Bontempelli and Fyfe were dominant in clearances and just had more stand out games for me.

Tim English is still a bit of an unknown to umps and I don't think his 2 goals and ruck performance is enough to snag a vote here.

 

[Michael Scarn]

I find a few clubs curious, but for now I have some questions about West Coast.

Seems too close to call. I have Naitanui 11, Kelly 10, Sheed 10. Doesn't look like TJM has Naitanui polling much at all, but I think he's been very influential for large parts of the season. Wondering what others think? Here's my votes for each of these FWIW

Naitanui:
R3 - 1
R5 - 2
R8 - 1
R9 - 3
R11 - 2
R12 - 2

Sheed:
R5 - 3
R6 - 2
R9 - 2
R11 - 3

Kelly:
R6 - 3
R8 - 2
R9 - 1
R14 - 1
R17 - 3

I haven't done much proper analysis historically, but I gather that rucks generally have a tough time polling votes. What do others have for WC? Am I off the mark or is it too close to call?

I'd advise watching WC games without commentary if you don't already, considering the love that commentators have for NicNat

 

[NonPhixion]

I’d be very interested to see everyone’s WC team votes. Got Sheed at $17 for a monster payout and wondering how I should play it

 

[shepherdodin]

I'd advise watching WC games without commentary if you don't already, considering the love that commentators have for NicNat

The thing that throws me is the coaches votes, who also watch without commentary. They have NicNat leading that too by a fair margin.

 

[2121]

The thing that throws me is the coaches votes, who also watch without commentary. They have NicNat leading that too by a fair margin.

I wouldnt be using coaches votes as much, they give votes to taggers where as the umpires wouldnt.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

To keep things interesting was my comment. We know that they gravitate to the senior players and will also know that Neale the red hot avourite and Petracca in the closing pack. Razor Ray did the game and he certainly will love trying to make it a thrilling count if he can.
Just my opinion, that’s all.

Nothing wrong at all with having an opinion - that's why we are all here to give our thoughts on the votes and fair play to those who are bold enough to put their thoughts out there.

I just can't quite reconcile the idea of 3 umpires sitting down after the match to work out how they can make the count more interesting by choosing votes that may set up a bigger finish.