AFL 2020 Brownlow Medal

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T

TheJanuaryMan

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Jul 29, 2009
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Brisbane Lions
That time of year again to chat all things Brownlow. Was a big year in this thread last year with the correct prediction of Fyfe winning after the live round-by-round count so let's see how we go in 2020.

My stable to this point:

Neale - $10
Bontempelli - $13
Josh Dunkley $51
Petracca - $81
Sheed - $101

If I can give anyone 2 tips for the season - do your counts in real time. No point at all going back 8 weeks later to work out votes in round 3 when it is the bye rounds. Do your own counts as the year happens. The second tip is - don't just play the outright winner. There is value to be found in Team Votes as well as particular Round leaders.

Looking forward to plenty of good chat and hopefully getting some back from the bookies.

Cheers
TJM
 
TheJanuaryMan said:
That time of year again to chat all things Brownlow. Was a big year in this thread last year with the correct prediction of Fyfe winning after the live round-by-round count so let's see how we go in 2020.

My stable to this point:

Neale - $10
Bontempelli - $13
Josh Dunkley $51
Petracca - $81
Sheed - $101

If I can give anyone 2 tips for the season - do your counts in real time. No point at all going back 8 weeks later to work out votes in round 3 when it is the bye rounds. Do your own counts as the year happens. The second tip is - don't just play the outright winner. There is value to be found in Team Votes as well as particular Round leaders.

Looking forward to plenty of good chat and hopefully getting some back from the bookies.

Cheers
TJM
Click to expand...
Thought you may have had Cripps on your list

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
TheJanuaryMan said:
That time of year again to chat all things Brownlow. Was a big year in this thread last year with the correct prediction of Fyfe winning after the live round-by-round count so let's see how we go in 2020.

My stable to this point:

Neale - $10
Bontempelli - $13
Josh Dunkley $51
Petracca - $81
Sheed - $101

If I can give anyone 2 tips for the season - do your counts in real time. No point at all going back 8 weeks later to work out votes in round 3 when it is the bye rounds. Do your own counts as the year happens. The second tip is - don't just play the outright winner. There is value to be found in Team Votes as well as particular Round leaders.

Looking forward to plenty of good chat and hopefully getting some back from the bookies.

Cheers
TJM
Click to expand...
Watching this thread, your tips are a valuable resource every year.

Might try to do live votes this year for games I watch, see how they compare with everyone.

Leeching off others votes has worked out profitable for me the past 2 years though
 

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A few speccy bets pre year for team votes, a couple I think are just overs and for quick cash out profits.

Saints - Brad Hill 14s.
GC - Darcy Macpherson 21s.
GWS- Tim Taranto 13s.
Syd - A prayer with Nick Blakey at 151s.
Pear - Connor Rozee 23s.
 
Sausage Legs said:
A few speccy bets pre year for team votes, a couple I think are just overs and for quick cash out profits.

Saints - Brad Hill 14s.
GC - Darcy Macpherson 21s.
GWS- Tim Taranto 13s.
Syd - A prayer with Nick Blakey at 151s.
Pear - Connor Rozee 23s.
Click to expand...
All these odds have been crunched in on SB, especially Blakely (151 into 21). Either an insider is closely watching this thread or you've taken them to the cleaners in the past :think:
 
Benjo_ said:
All these odds have been crunched in on SB, especially Blakely (151 into 21). Either an insider is closely watching this thread or you've taken them to the cleaners in the past :think:
Click to expand...
I placed them all this morn except Hill who did last week. It did the spinny waiting for acceptance thing it does and I did notice they came in within 5 mins cos was looking at cash out prices. Most are about same cash out as I put on now. The Blakey one I did on pointsbet. No cash out unfortunately with that one.
I actually asked them to add MacPherson and Blakey to lists although just prayers
 
TheJanuaryMan said:
If I can give anyone 2 tips for the season - do your counts in real time. No point at all going back 8 weeks later to work out votes in round 3 when it is the bye rounds. Do your own counts as the year happens. The second tip is - don't just play the outright winner. There is value to be found in Team Votes as well as particular Round leaders.
Click to expand...
And if I may,

Take notes on who is likely to get 3 votes after each game. 3 vote game betting is the best kind in my opinion, or at least the most enjoyable on the night. Helps if you've been backing the Brownlow keenly for a few years so you are familiar with what the umpires go for and who they like to give votes to. For example, I wasn't betting last year, but all my mates cleaned up big time on Charlie Curnow collecting 3 in Carlton's 3 point loss to the Bulldogs in the second half of the year, paying around $2.25 IIRC. Dunkley was comfy favourite to poll 3 but Charlie kicked 7 in a huge comeback, and I thought there was no doubt he'd poll the three, which he did.

These days, umpires like to look beyond the result and you'll often see players poll the 3 in a losing team if they were good enough, so there's always heaps of value to be found in losing teams.

Keen for a big year. Good luck, everybody.
 
adammania9 said:
And if I may,

Take notes on who is likely to get 3 votes after each game. 3 vote game betting is the best kind in my opinion, or at least the most enjoyable on the night. Helps if you've been backing the Brownlow keenly for a few years so you are familiar with what the umpires go for and who they like to give votes to. For example, I wasn't betting last year, but all my mates cleaned up big time on Charlie Curnow collecting 3 in Carlton's 3 point loss to the Bulldogs in the second half of the year, paying around $2.25 IIRC. Dunkley was comfy favourite to poll 3 but Charlie kicked 7 in a huge comeback, and I thought there was no doubt he'd poll the three, which he did.

These days, umpires like to look beyond the result and you'll often see players poll the 3 in a losing team if they were good enough, so there's always heaps of value to be found in losing teams.

Keen for a big year. Good luck, everybody.
Click to expand...

2nd this. I find this easiest to do when my team is playing as I know all the players and what is considered a standout game for them etc. Im also more likely to watch the full game and notice all the smaller details.

The Lions v Geelong game at the Gabba I took Charlie Cameron 3 votes for $6.

I was at the game and wrote down in my phone who I thought I'd give the voted to. Was shocked when I saw bookies with Dangerfield the favourite to get the 3.

Anyway trusted my gut and ended up being spot on and won a lot.

Works just as well watching from TV too.
 
What bookies offer cashout for this event?

And do you have to put the bet on after the season has started to be able to cashout?

I noticed last year some pre- round 1 bets I couldnt cash out
 
Red Dog Styles said:
Thought you may have had Cripps on your list

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app
Click to expand...
I reckon at some point in the season you will get better odds on Cripps than those available right now.

On the issue of bookies watching this thread - can tell you 100% they do. Suspect one was a little clumsy with a message sent to me once in the language and terminology they used.
 
Good starts for a couple of the fancies tonight with Cripps and Dusty. Jack Martin may catch the eye with 4 although on the losing team. Prestia excellent also.
 

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Wonder if Brownlow will go ahead if Season cut short?

making it hard to even bother with Brownlow bets this year, could be all for nothing.
 
ROUND 1

CARL v RICH
3 D Prestia (Rich)
2 P Cripps (Carl)
1 D Martin (Rich)

WB v COLL
3 B Grundy (Coll)
2 T Adams (Coll)
1 S Pendlebury (Coll)

ESS v FREO
3 D Shiel (Ess)
2 N Fyfe (Freo)
1 A McGrath (Ess)

ADEL v SYD
3 I Heeney (Syd)
2 J Kennedy (Syd)
1 L Parker (Syd)

GWS v GEEL
3 T Greene (GWS)
2 H Perryman (GWS)
1 S Coniglio (GWS)

GC v PA
3 3 D Byrne-Jones (PA)
2 T Rockliff (PA)
1 T Boak (PA)

NM v ST K
3 B Cunnington (NM)
2 J Simpkin (NM)
1 D Hannebery (St K)

HAW v BRIS
3 C Wingard (Haw)
2 T Mitchell (Haw)
1 L Neale (Bris)

WCE v MELB
3 J Viney (Melb)
2 L Shuey (WCE)
1 L Ryan (WCE)
 
Last edited:
Personally still very high on Cripps. I think its his year & if Carlton can atleast win a couple more games than last year he will be right in the mix.
 
lots of hard games this weekend...

Fyfe v Neale for 3
Petracca v Gawn
The showdown could go to a number of port players...


Current leaderboard:
Row LabelsSum of Votes
T.Boak
6​
N.Fyfe
5​
S.Pendlebury
5​
L.Parker
4​
L.Neale
4​
D.Prestia
3​
H.Perryman
3​
B.Cunnington
3​
T.Goldstein
3​
Z.Jones
3​
Z.Merrett
3​
B.Grundy
3​
C.Petracca
3​
C.Wingard
3​
M.Rowell
3​
J.Viney
3​
J.Billings
3​
D.Shiel
3​
J.Selwood
3​
I.Heeney
3​
 
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