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Do they do a Carpenters Hottest 20? That might reel me in to do some research.Intrigued. Though I mostly listen to weird electronic music on soundcloud, maybe its not for me?
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Do they do a Carpenters Hottest 20? That might reel me in to do some research.Intrigued. Though I mostly listen to weird electronic music on soundcloud, maybe its not for me?
if they needed a donation, would be happy to support them. Very reliableI love that site and go onto it a fair bit. I’m not sure how they make any $ as no ads on there.
Has the lifetime game by game polling history of every player which is very handy.
You are broadly correct I understand. I was asked a number of times to join private Brownlow rooms and chat groups but always politely refused. I remember there was a big fallout one year from something very close to what you are describing though - corporates seemed to put out markets with no value very suddenly.Also in reference to the Brownlow threads of years ago, didn’t this forum go belly up because someone sold everyone’s hard work to the corps and then they used that to frame markets with no cream?? That’s what happened from my memory....
You're right on the money I believe.Haha too late and doesn’t matter now, must have been 10 years ago when Brownlow King absolutely nailed it one year (I am talking Lenny Haynes going up $6 and Nick Riewoldt $1.25, think like Tomahawk vs Dangerfield this year AND absolute locks going up $1.50) and then the next year all the guns went offline and private and they spent hours upon hours (probably similar to plenty this year) discussing the votes round by round because it was such a goldmine and someone logged it on a website and I’d imagine (and I’m only piecing it together) sold that detail to corporates and they went up basically the right prices and everyone had a meltdown.
Quite sad tbh and I think crippled this chat for a few years. Others still around here would probably know more than me!!
Brownlow King was 2013 and he went on the Footy Show declaring Mitchell as his winner.I remember Brownlow king come to think of it but I remember him getting Sam Mitchell wrong or something, that was the last time I heard of
You are broadly correct I understand. I was asked a number of times to join private Brownlow rooms and chat groups but always politely refused. I remember there was a big fallout one year from something very close to what you are describing though - corporates seemed to put out markets with no value very suddenly.
I've mentioned before I had at least one PM in the last year from a new account which used language which got my attention immediately. There were a couple of terms used that only a corporate would refer to. I didn't bite to their suggestion for sharing further data to what I post on here
Thanks for the reminder. I had to amend my round 6 votes for Syd v GWSAn
Anyone who suggests corps don’t sniff around in here are kidding themselves. Not so much the current odds but the round by round counts they would 100% cross reference!!
That is just fantastic work - really well done.
One minor thing with mine - while I'm aware a couple of posters have a bee in their bonnet over how many projected votes I have Sheed on - I don't have him winning the WB votes also . WB I have Bont 14 and Macrae on 13.
Brownlow King was 2013 and he went on the Footy Show declaring Mitchell as his winner.
GAJ won that year with 28 votes.
Mitchell scored 16 but was backed off the map with bookies that year from double figures into 5s or so on the day of the count.
There was a theory that BK actually was all over GAJ but wanted to shift the odds somewhat (not a bad theory).
He tipped Joel Selwood in 2014 (no shame in that BTW - I had him high that season) but he finished 5 shy of Priddis.
Haven't really seen him around again after that much.
Boosted on SB on Friday. Cripps has since come in from $2.56 to $2.00, so I guess it would no longer be paying that.Where are you getting 6.22 for this?
Thanks so much! What's your updated Laird/Crouch expected outcome based on these re-watchings?Adelaide v GWS Round 16:
3 Laird
2 M Crouch
1 O'Brien
Laird was the best player on the ground with 11 clearances, more than double that of the next player. 1 vote could have gone to : B Crouch, Whitfield or O'Brien. O'Brien had 43 hit outs, of which 8 were to advantage and he also had a goal assist. By this time of the season, the umpires and the competition know how good a player he is and the hype around him being possibly the leading club best and fairest for the season. In 2019, O'Brien had 54 hit outs the most for him during the season and he polled 2 votes. So 43 under the shortened quarters equates to 53.75 under the 20 minute quarters. Brad Crouch snagged 1 vote last year against GWS at the same ground, with similar stats to his brother, except Matt kicked 0 goals. Matt kicked 1 goal in this game with similar stats to Brad Crouch. Think that may be enough to persuade the umpires to give Matt the 2 votes here.
Either way, one of Matt or Brad Crouch will get the 2 votes. Don't think both poll here.
Think the 1 vote could easily go to one of the 3 players mentioned.
To get the 3 votes here (assuming no bookie margin):
Laird $2.56
M Crouch $2.94
O'Brien $10
Whitfield $11.10
B Crouch $14.29
Other Player $100
(PS: This is not a good outcome for me as most of my multis have M Crouch leading the poll for Adelaide votes. )
Thanks so much! What's your updated Laird/Crouch expected outcome based on these re-watchings?
Got it, this is very bad for me too. Guess I'll have to add a whole bunch more multis to account for this, thanks a lot. Though I'll wait for the rest of your Adelaide watch with interest.Im basing my votes off The January Man's votes, with a few tweaks and changes from the games I have watched. (2 Adelaide games in my review) So I guess you can work backwards from there and calculate the votes.
After watching last nights matches, its a bad night for M Crouch and a good night for O'Brien. Also a good outcome for Laird -Adelaide leading vote gettors.
If Matt Crouch can't poll better than O'Brien in those 2 games (GWS and Hawthorn), don't think he can win the Adelaide count. At the moment, M Crouch is behind Laird in my count.
I still have to watch Adelaide v Carlton tonight. (A game where M Crouch isn't expected to poll)
Thanks for your 3-vote hypothetical markets.Im basing my votes off The January Man's votes, with a few tweaks and changes from the games I have watched. (2 Adelaide games in my review) So I guess you can work backwards from there and calculate the votes.
After watching last nights matches, its a bad night for M Crouch and a good night for O'Brien. Also a good outcome for Laird -Adelaide leading vote gettors.
If Matt Crouch can't poll better than O'Brien in those 2 games (GWS and Hawthorn), don't think he can win the Adelaide count. At the moment, M Crouch is behind Laird in my count.
I still have to watch Adelaide v Carlton tonight. (A game where M Crouch isn't expected to poll)
And the markets haven't even really startedfu** me by Brownlow night I’m going to have a superfund of investments with all these bets
SB have Rockliff $3.50 Wines $4 for top 10 finish, but Wines $2 Rockliff $3 most votes PA without Boak.
Wonder why?
My biggest tip / advice for the half newbies would be to not let one player blow ur stack. Vary ur multis a little.
Example, a cupl years ago I thought clarry Oliver was a morale to top the dees. Put him in every multi, backed him in the handicap markets, thought he was a good price in a few of the groups markets and head to heads. All dead. By all means back player/s that u like, but don't let one player do ur balls on the nite.