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AFL 2020 Brownlow Medal

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Analysis Paralysis said:
Something a little interesting - votes to losing teams:
  • 2017 - 19.2%
  • 2018 - 16.9%
  • 2019 - 20.1%
  • 2020 - 16.2%
Three-vote players in losing teams:
  • 2017 - 13.6%
  • 2018 - 9.6%
  • 2019 - 10.1%
  • 2020 - 4.6%
It looks like 2020 was low-ish for total votes to losing teams, and definitely low on 3v to players on losing teams.
Click to expand...
Yet the Hawks manage to overpoll in losses! The one team we needed to not overpoll. Ruined the Neale>Hawks and North>Hawks bets. Can’t script this stuff...
 
Analysis Paralysis said:
Something a little interesting - votes to losing teams:
  • 2017 - 19.2%
  • 2018 - 16.9%
  • 2019 - 20.1%
  • 2020 - 16.2%
Three-vote players in losing teams:
  • 2017 - 13.6%
  • 2018 - 9.6%
  • 2019 - 10.1%
  • 2020 - 4.6%
It looks like 2020 was low-ish for total votes to losing teams, and definitely low on 3v to players on losing teams.
Click to expand...


I saw a template of your count on the values you listed.

Your vote had : Zac Jones, Gawn, The Bont, Grundy polling low totals, and was one of the few counts that had Oliver beating Gawn, Greene winning GWS votes, Simpkin to equal 1st in North count( he ended up winning), your vote had a Port tie between Wines/Rockcliff which ironically happened in the count, you had Marshall winning (he came tied with Butler), you had Papley tieing (he came top without Parker in Sydney votes) and you had MacRae winning by a fair margin over the Bont. That last leg was probably my achilles heal. Most important of all was you happened to have Neale winning by a fair margin, which too happened on the night.

From the models I have seen, yours came closest to what happened in the actual count. Hope you won plenty.
 
Thanks to everyone for providing their counts and analysis in here during the season! For me, the pick your own vote multi's was my main source of profit, hitting $2.50, $11 and $19 multi's. Unfortunately like many in here, Gola killed my two triple figure multi's by the one leg.

Shoutout to the multiple ppl who tipped Simpkin and Lukey Ryan for 3 in their respective markets :fire:

Ended up with a slight positive result in BYO bets, hitting Rowan Marshall 8+ and Neale > Crows at 3s. Rest of my BYOs >5 odds lost, as quite a few warned before the count.

On a different note, this is the second year in a row that the Bont has slightly polled below expectations. One to watch for next year as well with Macrae and Bailey Smith getting better and better.
 
Well done to everyone who made good money from this.

Def feeling slightly jealous.

Felt a bit like waking up on Christmas morning and recieving a piece of coal in my stocking while everyone else had recieved a bounty of gifts when I looked at the thread after the event had wrapped up.

Haven't really tailed anyone's bets on here before, wasn't particularly convinced it (this) was going to work out too well, but looks like a fair few did really well to say the least.

Congratulations again 👏.

If I didn't suffer from pretty bad fatigue issues I would potentially have a look at making my own count next year too, but will just rely on keeping tabs on the particular votes from the games I watch closely and maybe tailing a few things 😉.
 

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NYRB said:
I saw a template of your count on the values you listed.

Your vote had : Zac Jones, Gawn, The Bont, Grundy polling low totals, and was one of the few counts that had Oliver beating Gawn, Greene winning GWS votes, Simpkin to equal 1st in North count( he ended up winning), your vote had a Port tie between Wines/Rockcliff which ironically happened in the count, you had Marshall winning (he came tied with Butler), you had Papley tieing (he came top without Parker in Sydney votes) and you had MacRae winning by a fair margin over the Bont. That last leg was probably my achilles heal. Most important of all was you happened to have Neale winning by a fair margin, which too happened on the night.

From the models I have seen, yours came closest to what happened in the actual count. Hope you won plenty.
Click to expand...
Thanks mate - I am happy to come up trumps this year after minor losses last year (ties, and unprovens / not-classy gave me grief last year). Hope you are pleased too.

Felt safer with Macrae after Young Gun broke down Macrae's polling in the round 9-11 losses.

I still got carried away by Menegola's stats and weight of opinion but thankfully didn't play him as I think Menegola might have been one of Young Gun's doubts.
 
Chism said:
Jack Steele 15 or more votes making me nervous in my multi and not confident at all.

Neale 20+
Boak 15+
Tracca 15+
Steele 15+
Martin 15+
MacRae 10+
Fyfe 10+
Parker 10+
Gawn 10+
Bont 10+
Merritt 10+
Powered to $4.47.
Click to expand...
Gee whiz people talking about dropping thousands and WTF did you outlay to get those sorts of returns? I was stressing after putting $100 on this to win $447 and eventually got it but Bont / Dusty and Fyfe made me sweat like **** and never again!

brownlow.JPG
 
Sportsbet said:
Yet the Hawks manage to overpoll in losses! The one team we needed to not overpoll. Ruined the Neale>Hawks and North>Hawks bets. Can’t script this stuff...
Click to expand...

I've been banging on about "class" and in hindsight Mitchell / Wingard / Gunston have it in spades over Anderson and co, particularly when Hawks win 5 games to North's 3, and North polled 11 votes in losses to Hawthorn's 8. Both pretty much got max votes from their wins.
 
Huge thanks to all the guys in here that have shared their counts and opinions, particularly TheJanuaryMan Gazza Guru Analysis Paralysis NYRB Sausage Legs Young Gun #6 . I have followed since day one and have you guys to thank for a relatively successful night (I'm sure it is quite small in comparison to many others here).

The Pick your own votes at SB proved to be fruitful as well as a couple of the BYOs in Neale over Adelaide & Gaff and Sheed over 6.5. I was also lucky enough to avoid Menegola and tended to stick to the proven pollers.
As always it could have been much larger with Matt Crouch and Heeney just getting nosed in their respective counts.
 
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And that's a wrap, thanks to all who posted throughout the year, been some awesome discussion on here. Read everything and only posted sporadically but did manage to call Cripps, Pendles, Simpkin and Sheed for team votes, a number of byo's and h2h's and filled up nicely on the pick your own vote multis that Menegola wasn't in.
Definitely some absolute head scratching votes at times but somehow or rather all seemed to come together somewhere like predicted by the end of the count bar a couple of players already discussed (Menegola). As has been mentioned Fyfe and Bont pulling votes out of their arse to get to 10 in the last round was a big result, as was Mundy polling 3 votes for the count yet somehow still pipping Libba by 1, I was sure he was going to get a couple votes in the last round and get over the top of him but thankfully didn't happen.
Outside of Menegola the two big annoyances of the night for me were Greene getting Cripps in the tab group and Hawks polling so much, I had North polling more votes that them as one of my biggest locks for the night and they underpolled heavily as a team on my predictions, certainly won't be relying on Jed Anderson to get votes in losses again. Will also keep in mind the umpires simply don't notice Matt Crouch.
One player I did notice was Bailey Smith, polled a lot higher than I had predicted him to and clearly the umpires notice him. One I'll be watching the odds on carefully next pre season.
Despite a few what could've been moments overall a very successful night, look forward to next season. Cheers
 
Looking back at the count, and an interesting observation that may be worth keeping in mind for future years.

Sometimes in a game where tons of players racked up disposals, instead of splitting hairs to pick one of them, umpires sometimes just voted for the highest goal scorer or key Backman.

Could be a correlation between high disposal games and Key Fwds/Defenders getting votes?
 
Chism said:
Gee whiz people talking about dropping thousands and WTF did you outlay to get those sorts of returns? I was stressing after putting $100 on this to win $447 and eventually got it but Bont / Dusty and Fyfe made me sweat like fu** and never again!

View attachment 989431
Click to expand...
Had about 50 multis on. Here's an example of my "safe" H2H multi that I was using to bankroll a bunch of others. Pretty much all of them busted but they were in the $5 range.

This was never in doubt IMO. Though most of my multis busted. $250 on this, remember discussing it here. Had about 10 "safe" bets like this, a bunch had Menegola in lol, they failed out.

1603080517369.png
 

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alhay6 said:
Looking back at the count, and an interesting observation that may be worth keeping in mind for future years.

Sometimes in a game where tons of players racked up disposals, instead of splitting hairs to pick one of them, umpires sometimes just voted for the highest goal scorer or key Backman.

Could be a correlation between high disposal games and Key Fwds/Defenders getting votes?
Click to expand...
I haven't been to a game this year. I was wondering if supercoach scores come up on the big screen at qtime breaks like it does on tv. Just something umps could see out corner of eye.
 
shepherdodin said:
Had about 50 multis on. Here's an example of my "safe" H2H multi that I was using to bankroll a bunch of others. Pretty much all of them busted but they were in the $5 range.

This was never in doubt IMO. Though most of my multis busted. $250 on this, remember discussing it here. Had about 10 "safe" bets like this, a bunch had Menegola in lol, they failed out.

View attachment 989483
Click to expand...
never in doubt! I would have been pretty nervous going into round 18 with Libba expected to poll 2 and Mundy only on 3!
 
freo_leo29 said:
never in doubt! I would have been pretty nervous going into round 18 with Libba expected to poll 2 and Mundy only on 3!
Click to expand...
haha, I was too busy typing in all the votes into the spreadsheet to know if my safe bets were nearly bust. That honestly would have ruined my night.
 
I'm still waiting for people to own up to the Jed Anderson bet.

As I said a week or so ago, the idea that he would go from ZERO career votes to suddenly win the North count was nuts.

Sadly I went with Goldstein over Simpkin, so I didn't collect on that insight.

But with all the people in here now saying they made motzas on the Brownlow punt, where are the people saying they lost on Anderson?

Surely somebody must have been betting on him to have been listed as favourite on SB and elsewhere?
 
mouncey2franklin said:
I'm still waiting for people to own up to the Jed Anderson bet.

As I said a week or so ago, the idea that he would go from ZERO career votes to suddenly win the North count was nuts.

Sadly I went with Goldstein over Simpkin, so I didn't collect on that insight.

But with all the people in here now saying they made motzas on the Brownlow punt, where are the people saying they lost on Anderson?

Surely somebody must have been betting on him to have been listed as favourite on SB and elsewhere?
Click to expand...
Guilty.
1603086102206.png
 

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mouncey2franklin said:
I'm still waiting for people to own up to the Jed Anderson bet.

As I said a week or so ago, the idea that he would go from ZERO career votes to suddenly win the North count was nuts.

Sadly I went with Goldstein over Simpkin, so I didn't collect on that insight.

But with all the people in here now saying they made motzas on the Brownlow punt, where are the people saying they lost on Anderson?

Surely somebody must have been betting on him to have been listed as favourite on SB and elsewhere?
Click to expand...
Had him in mine. It's not like we were looking for someone to get 20 votes. 8 or so was realistic. Simpkin went from one vote to take it out so it can obviously happen. Got that one wrong, heaps others right. Moving on.
 
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mouncey2franklin said:
I'm still waiting for people to own up to the Jed Anderson bet.

As I said a week or so ago, the idea that he would go from ZERO career votes to suddenly win the North count was nuts.

Sadly I went with Goldstein over Simpkin, so I didn't collect on that insight.

But with all the people in here now saying they made motzas on the Brownlow punt, where are the people saying they lost on Anderson?

Surely somebody must have been betting on him to have been listed as favourite on SB and elsewhere?
Click to expand...

I had a very small stab on him to make top 20 @21. Not sure that moved any markets though. Before You Bet followers will know that Jed Anderson to top North was one of their three team bets with the others being Matt Crouch and Menegola. Perhaps the weight came from there?
 
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Analysis Paralysis said:
Before You Bet followers will know that Jed Anderson to top North was one of their three team bets with the others being Matt Crouch and Menegola. Perhaps the weight came from there?
Click to expand...

Yep and here is what I wrote about that when I found out:

AFL - 2020 Brownlow Medal

Really thinking of going big on Gawn top 20 Macrae top 10 Merrett top 10 Martin top 10 Petracca top 5 missed Gawn at 1.9 now into 1.4 That multi adds up to 8.26 Concern is Merrett IMO. Unsure if it’s just my general feel for him as a player taking over or not. otherwise would replace with...
www.bigfooty.com www.bigfooty.com

They were MILES off.
 
It was a weird night. Zak Jones and Menagola notwithstanding, Matt Crouch not getting to 4 cost me a 8000/1 bet.

Having said that, the best part was definitely the discussions here. Hasn't been this much fun for years.

I'm sad I jumped in late but I'm inspired to contribute next season.
 
mouncey2franklin said:
I'm still waiting for people to own up to the Jed Anderson bet.

As I said a week or so ago, the idea that he would go from ZERO career votes to suddenly win the North count was nuts.

Sadly I went with Goldstein over Simpkin, so I didn't collect on that insight.

But with all the people in here now saying they made motzas on the Brownlow punt, where are the people saying they lost on Anderson?

Surely somebody must have been betting on him to have been listed as favourite on SB and elsewhere?
Click to expand...

I’ll own up , I watched his reviewed games and had him winning the Roos count or equal to it from memory. He impressed me but with a Brownlow count it starts in small steps and this year wasn’t the year for him. My initial multis had Simpkin in it from TJM. Must admit I was a bit guilty of reading the site beforeyoubet.com.au who had him as one of their recommended bets to win the Roos count.

I watched plenty of Roos games again and I preferred Beforeyoubet reviews of him.
 
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