2020 Brownlow Thread

NYRB

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Decided to get in early and post a thread for Brownlow Medal in 2020. I'll be following the Brownlow leaders next year from leading teams a bit more closely. Ive selected the top odds from betting websites that I mainly use, 4 websites all together. Having a quick look at the favourites , feel like Tim Kelly (moving to West Coast ) will be in a team that is more even in terms of quality across the field. Mitchell Im not convinced should be that short coming back from injury. Not a fan of backing single digit figures on Cripps and Fyfe , despite how good their seasons were this year. I also expect ruckmen Gawn and Brundy to poll better since they have the attention of the umpires now. Outside those 2 rucks, not sure which other rucks that stand out. My triple figure bets I like for next season are: Worpel $126, Luke Parker $101, Jeremy Cameron $126, Bachar Houli $251, Tipungwuti $251, Marlion Pickett $151, Zorko $151, Charlie Cameron $251, Gary Ablett $151 who are all overpriced in my book. I will place some early bets on them as I feel like a couple of these players may shorten come next season.

Cripps $7
Fyfe $8
Dangerfield $10
Martin, Mitchell $11
Neale $14
Bontempelli, Tim Kelly, Grundy $21
Whitfield, Coniglio $26
Treloar, Macrae $34
Gawn, Josh Kelly $40
Yeo $41
Gaff $50
Oliver, Dunkley $51
Merrett, Dylan Shiel, Shuey, Pendlebury $67

Higgins, OMeara, M Crouch, Sloane, Charlie Curnow, Boak $81

Parker, Cunnington, Cotchin, Sheed, Billings, A Brayshaw, Gray, B Crouch, Sam Walsh, J Crisp, Ward, Taranto, Prestia, Fiorini, Sidebottom, Beams, Tom Lynch, Fantasia $101

Heppell, Greene, Walters, Wines, Worpel, Jeremy Cameron, Naitanui, Franklin, Ross, De Goey $126

Pickett, Zorko, Murphy, Heeney, Josh Kennedy (SYD), Adams, Brad Hill, Hannebery, Aaron Francis, Viney, Edwards, Liam Shiels, Sicily, Selwood, Rockcliff, Edward Curnow, Caleb Daniel, McCluggage, Joe Daniher, Butters, Caddy, Blakey, Laird, Hopper, Menegola, Ben Brown, Gary Ablett, Devon Smith, Dumont, Duncan Mitchell, Ellis, Jack Martin, Docherty $151

Houli, Jake Lloyd, Tipungwuti, Redden, Hunter, Liberatore, Henderson, Marshall, Ziebell, Zaharakis, Stringer, Stack, Wingard, Zachary Williams, Weller, Swallow, Steven, Riewoldt, Scully, Polec, Charlie Cameron, Jack Darling, Isaac Smith, Papley, Lyons, Moore, Harmes, Josh Kennedy (WCE), Lambert, Gresham, Hurn, Hawkins $251

Mason Cox, Elliott, Witts, Stephenson, Taylor Walker, Saad, Rozee, Rampe, Petracca, Naughton, Burgoyne, Grimes, Betts, Aliir, Andrews, Atkins, Barrass, Hurley, Howe, Hewett, McGovern, Lever, Greenwood, Johannisen, Hogan, Himmelberg, Hipwood, McKenna, Rance, Mitch McGovern, Gunston, De Boer, Duursma, Ebert, Breust $501
 
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mookieb

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I imagine the key is to be the umprire's pet in a team that wins a decent amount of games and have no real recognised midfielders stealing votes from you. With Carl likely to pick up Martin, Papley and Betts plus natural improvement should see their win total increase, but still limited players taking votes from him. But of course that's probably why he's favourite.
 

NYRB

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I imagine the key is to be the umprire's pet in a team that wins a decent amount of games and have no real recognised midfielders stealing votes from you. With Carl likely to pick up Martin, Papley and Betts plus natural improvement should see their win total increase, but still limited players taking votes from him. But of course that's probably why he's favourite.

Good point that you make. Think one way you could measure it, is looking at the gap between the best and the 2nd best player. Think Carltons 2nd best player is probably Sam Walsh and Freos 2nd best player is Michael Walters. The gap between them and Fyfe/Cripps is still a fair gap. Thats one reason if Tim Kelly does indeed join West Coast next season, I could see a situation where 5 players spread the votes evenly: Sheed, Yeo, Shuey, Gaff and Tim Kelly. If a Jack Darling stands up with bags of 6 goals or more, that pushes it to around 6 players competing for best on ground week in week out. With a favourable draw next season (traditionally the draw is tilted a bit more tougher to the prelim sides and grand final sides), I see West Coast being a top 2 next season with an easier draw.

If Tim Kelly happens to join Fremantle (unlikely scenario), can see him and Fyfe polling most votes but probably reduce Fyfe's polling capacity.
 
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NYRB

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Having watched alot of Freo games in the past, I kind of underestimated the impact Lachie Neale and Fyfe in a team were. Never really appreciated Neale as much. Think in hindsight its a great move for Lachie Neale this season to in a way get out of the shadow of Fyfe and be the leading man in a midfield.

But I guess Freo supporters after seeing Neale's season this year, probably in hindsight would have preferred to keep him over the Lobb/Hogan trade. Time will tell if Freo were the winner of this trade.
 
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NYRB

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If I were to do a vote top getter for West Coast for 2020 (with Tim Kelly) this far out- Id price it:

Tim Kelly 3.50
Yeo 4.50
Shuey 6
Gaff 6.40
Sheed 9.20
Darling 20
Hurn 32
Josh Kennedy 36
Others upon Request

Id back Yeo to win that and I wouldn't be surprised if these were the odds come Rd 23 in 2020. (barring injuries or suspensions)
 
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NYRB

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a top vote getter for Fremantle for 2020 (with Tim Kelly) would be a 2-3 horse race:

Fyfe 1.98
Kelly 2.84
Walters 12
Mundy 21
Brad Hill 32 (assuming he stays)
Luke Ryan 55
Others upon request

it would be a toss up between Kelly and Fyfe but Walters would be a dark horse if he ends up getting much of the supply from the Fyfe/Kelly combo.
 

RobbyRoy

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Wouldn't go near anything at this stage, but if I were to, only Dunkley, Macrae and Merrett really take my interest. There are clearly three Dogs players who stand out and with 12 and 16 votes after the bye respectively, full seasons of that level from Dunkley and Macrae gives them a shot.

Merrett is clearly liked by the umps and with all but 1 of his 16 votes this season coming in games featuring both Heppell and Shiel playing, and his ability to poll in losses (see 2016), $67 seems high.
 

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TheJanuaryMan

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Much as I love the Brownlow and is my main focus in winter, even I wouldn't entertain a single wager on the 2020 version.

- Squads not finalised
- No idea of best 22 at each club
- Pre-season injuries

Among plenty of other reasons. Might as well chuck a long distance wager on the 2020 Stradbroke at this stage.

Hold your powder until March 2020 rather than tie it up now for nearly 12 months.
 

AFDogs

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I'll be taking Yeo at $41 has all the makings to be the next 'best player in the league'.

Absolute beast.
 

burge13

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I'll be taking Yeo at $41 has all the makings to be the next 'best player in the league'.

Absolute beast.
Adding Kelly can't help. Shuey and Redden can't really move out of the midfield but Yeo can play anywhere so wouldn't he be moved to accommodate?
 

NonPhixion

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I'll be taking Yeo at $41 has all the makings to be the next 'best player in the league'.

Absolute beast.
He’s good. But he won’t even be the best midfielder at West Coast next year
 

NYRB

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Much as I love the Brownlow and is my main focus in winter, even I wouldn't entertain a single wager on the 2020 version.

- Squads not finalised
- No idea of best 22 at each club
- Pre-season injuries

Among plenty of other reasons. Might as well chuck a long distance wager on the 2020 Stradbroke at this stage.

Hold your powder until March 2020 rather than tie it up now for nearly 12 months.

I understand your thought process but sometimes those long shots at this time of year, may not be there come round 2 or 3 next season. Things in the off season that may influence 2020 in a big way, is how trades go- whether it strengthens a club chance of winning a premiership, niggling injuries and how players recover from that, fixturing- do certain team get better draws (more likely wins).
 

NYRB

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If I were to do a vote top getter for West Coast for 2020 (with Tim Kelly) this far out- Id price it:

Tim Kelly 3.50
Yeo 4.50
Shuey 6
Gaff 6.40
Sheed 9.20
Darling 20
Hurn 32
Josh Kennedy 36
Others upon Request

Id back Yeo to win that and I wouldn't be surprised if these were the odds come Rd 23 in 2020. (barring injuries or suspensions)

i still rate Yeo over Kelly. (even as an underdog)
 

iluvparis

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I understand your thought process but sometimes those long shots at this time of year, may not be there come round 2 or 3 next season. Things in the off season that may influence 2020 in a big way, is how trades go- whether it strengthens a club chance of winning a premiership, niggling injuries and how players recover from that, fixturing- do certain team get better draws (more likely wins).
Look at the recent winners - almost all are well known commodities heading into the season
 

TheJanuaryMan

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I understand your thought process but sometimes those long shots at this time of year, may not be there come round 2 or 3 next season. Things in the off season that may influence 2020 in a big way, is how trades go- whether it strengthens a club chance of winning a premiership, niggling injuries and how players recover from that, fixturing- do certain team get better draws (more likely wins).
I've been doing my own counts for 10 years with strong results. Cannot think of any time I have placed a wager at this stage of the season, as the risk is just too great of many facets. As iluvparis rightly says above, winners are generally known players - bolts from the blue at cricket score odds are as rare as the odds suggest. Paul Couch winning at 250/1 pre-season just doesn't happen nowadays and I also can't justify having funds tied up for that full 12 months. Good luck to those that do, and are willing to take that risk, but I can't and won't do it when there is excellent value to be found after round 1 each season.

Even my longest priced winners in the days before multiple betting agencies, electronic wagering etc were in the region of 25's (Paul Kelly 1994, Shane Crawford after round 1, 1999). Chris Judd was the best one for me, the year I started doing my own counts in 2010 - but while I nailed him at brilliant odds multiple times that year, he was hardly unknown.

Keep the powder dry and never forget, the Brownlow isn't about picking 1 winner. The value lies in Team Votes, Round 5 leaders etc and that value comes from doing live counts in real time.
 

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