List Mgmt. 2020: Death Riding Melbourne [NMFC owns MFC's 1st & 4th 2020 picks] - Keep Your Eye on the Red and the Blue

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Forever North

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Apr 24, 2011
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I suppose we'll be in a very strong position at next years draft. 2 first round picks, potentially both top 10 plus the ability to use our future first rounder as well. Probably enough to get a Fyfe type deal done etc etc. Risky move but the laughs we'll get at the D's expense throughout the year will be absolutely worth it in the end.
 

Masked Avenger

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Nov 25, 2014
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You miserable halfwitted moaning garbage. In a section titled "Melbourne Sell the Farm to North", HPN include quotes like "It’s unclear what Melbourne hoped to achieve here," "Even if Melbourne were to win the flag, the swap is a 2-for-1 win to the Kangaroos" and "On the face, it’s a terrible deal, about as lopsided a pick swap as has been seen

You may think It's okay to call a fellow North supporter " a halfwitted moaning garbage" when expressing an opinion. Bully for you. I see you endorse comments that even if Melbourne win the flag in 2020, the swap is a 2-1 deal for the Kangaroos. Happy to hear from you how giving up pick 8 for picks 18 for and 26 is a two to one deal for us. Can't wait.
 
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chairo

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Dec 22, 2013
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Can someone please explain just how compromised next year's first round is and how it will effect our pick? For example where would Melbourne have to finish for us to end up with an equivalent pick 8.
 

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True North

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I hear there are 4 academy picks touted top 15 next year. There will be plenty of jockeying by clubs trying to manipulate the next draft. Hence the "weakened" tag. We will be using our 1st Rd picks to poach out of contract stars, it's a great move imo.

Boo Dees 2020
 

Pykie

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We're not getting 13th, we're getting the 8th best kid that we can get.
I meant Melbourne would have to finish 13th.

And it’s irrelevant if they are the 5th best kid we can get if they’re the 10th best kid in the country and that’s what pick we get them at.

We don’t get brownie points for it.
 

oldmanblakes12

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This is what its about. Bid on the academy and father sons who we rate highly and make the teams pay tge full amount or we grab a super young kid. If Melbourne really stink it up and we get a low pick we can work our way through bidding on these highly rated academy players and hopefuly hit the jackpot. If they match then we will still be able to grab one of the uncompromised top players !! Win win
True and if the dees stink it up and finish in the bottom few we may get a better one if a club isnt wiling to match an early bid. I think we are holding a strong hand here
On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

JZTIME!

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This is what its about. Bid on the academy and father sons who we rate highly and make the teams pay tge full amount or we grab a super young kid. If Melbourne really stink it up and we get a low pick we can work our way through bidding on these highly rated academy players and hopefuly hit the jackpot. If they match then we will still be able to grab one of the uncompromised top players !! Win win

On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app
Hit the nail on the head. Also teams in this situation next year may know this , if they miss what they are looking for as the draft unfolds there may be opportunities trade up in the draft. On the night or before hand
 

Snake_Baker

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I meant Melbourne would have to finish 13th.

And it’s irrelevant if they are the 5th best kid we can get if they’re the 10th best kid in the country and that’s what pick we get them at.

We don’t get brownie points for it.
5th best kid............now........and respectfully......as you see it...........not necessarily as North see it.

There's a million twists and turns to play out between now and then, and who is to say we will even go to the draft? If there actually ends up being that many top ranked kids from the academies then we are going to be the sexiest October playmate of the month IN HISTORY!

We can MONSTER this thing!
 

RobZombie

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You may think It's okay to call a fellow North supporter " a halfwitted moaning garbage" when expressing an opinion. Bully for you. I see you endorse comments that even if Melbourne win the flag in 2020, the swap is a 2-1 deal for the Kangaroos. Happy to hear from you how giving up pick 8 for picks 18 for and 26 is a two to one deal for us. Can't wait.
Sure. I just sometimes snap at that guy. I don’t really see anything in his posts that suggest "North supporter", just a weirdly bitter person who hates everyone at the club.

The main part of the deal is a swap of firsts, which on its own would be betting on our relative ladder position to theirs and almost defensible if you wanted to make the case that its better to hold that pick in one year rather than another. My guess is they finish somewhere in the 7-10 range and the actual pick value is a wash.

BUT they also threw in a mid-2nd and a late 3rd. That does 2 things

- gets our last pick up from the 70s to 50 (likely earlier after bids are matched).
- gives us a second round pick FOR FREE.

In the likely case that Melbourne are around the fringe of the 8 it really is about double the value back to us at the cost of dropping out of the top 10 this year.

The whole "it’s a win even if it’s pick 18" is based on the probability of overall career value you can be expected to get from 18, 27 and 50 vs just 8. Of course that could be the sum output of Atley, Macmillan & Dec Mountford vs one DeGoey or Tarryn Thomas, and some players' output is easier to replace than others. And by some measure the total output of Atley, Macmillan and Mountford is probably greater than DeGoey's. But the 8 could also be Luke McDonald or peter Wright or Adam Tomlinson. Which is, you know, fine, and 150-game players don’t grow on trees (see also Atley and Macmillan: fashionable as is is to denigrate them, they are also the quality of player that doesn’t grow on trees).

PLUS the extra 1st rounder is extra useful as a commodity next year when clubs with NGA picks will be trying to navigate their way around the likely bids. PLUS we have a LOT more wiggle room with contracts next year than Joyces and McMahons saddled us with this year. PLUS we’ve got enough kids queued up for a shot - Scott, Taylor, Crocker, Hayden, Murphy, plus Hall and Tyson wanting to make amends - that putting off hitting the draft for a year makes sense.

PLUS giving the extra trading and recruiting goodies to the new guys instead of the lame ducks is smarter than handing over a bunch busted C-graders you just traded in because Bigfooty was bored.
 

the big lebowski

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Sure. I just sometimes snap at that guy. I don’t really see anything in his posts that suggest "North supporter", just a weirdly bitter person who hates everyone at the club.

The main part of the deal is a swap of firsts, which on its own would be betting on our relative ladder position to theirs and almost defensible if you wanted to make the case that its better to hold that pick in one year rather than another. My guess is they finish somewhere in the 7-10 range and the actual pick value is a wash.

BUT they also threw in a mid-2nd and a late 3rd. That does 2 things

- gets our last pick up from the 70s to 50 (likely earlier after bids are matched).
- gives us a second round pick FOR FREE.

In the likely case that Melbourne are around the fringe of the 8 it really is about double the value back to us at the cost of dropping out of the top 10 this year.

The whole "it’s a win even if it’s pick 18" is based on the probability of overall career value you can be expected to get from 18, 27 and 50 vs just 8. Of course that could be the sum output of Atley, Macmillan & Dec Mountford vs one DeGoey or Tarryn Thomas, and some players' output is easier to replace than others. And by some measure the total output of Atley, Macmillan and Mountford is probably greater than DeGoey's. But the 8 could also be Luke McDonald or peter Wright or Adam Tomlinson. Which is, you know, fine, and 150-game players don’t grow on trees (see also Atley and Macmillan: fashionable as is is to denigrate them, they are also the quality of player that doesn’t grow on trees).

PLUS the extra 1st rounder is extra useful as a commodity next year when clubs with NGA picks will be trying to navigate their way around the likely bids. PLUS we have a LOT more wiggle room with contracts next year than Joyces and McMahons saddled us with this year. PLUS we’ve got enough kids queued up for a shot - Scott, Taylor, Crocker, Hayden, Murphy, plus Hall and Tyson wanting to make amends - that putting off hitting the draft for a year makes sense.

PLUS giving the extra trading and recruiting goodies to the new guys instead of the lame ducks is smarter than handing over a bunch busted C-graders you just traded in because Bigfooty was bored.
Let say we have picks 8 + 9 next year. Can you please explain to me how a team with a top 15 academy kid will engage us in a deal to suit their needs?
 

Snake_Baker

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Let say we have picks 8 + 9 next year. Can you please explain to me how a team with a top 15 academy kid will engage us in a deal to suit their needs?
Let's say Pykies early seeds are correct. Do you want to take a stab where WB, Syd x 2, Haw, Adel, Coll, Port & GC will finish next year?

1. Elijah Hollands - Vic Country
2. Riley Thilthorpe - South Australia
3. Jamarra Ugle-Hagan - Vic Country *WB NGA
4. Will Phillips - Vic Metro
5. Braeden Campbell - Sydney Academy *Sydney Academy
6. Denver Granger-Baras - Western Australia
7. Connor Downie - Vic Metro - *Hawthorn NGA
8. Nathan O'Driscoll - Western Australia
9. Luke Edwards - South Australia *Adelaide FS
10. Ollie Henry - Vic Country

With the following also probably inside the next 10.

Errol Gulden - Sydney Academy
Reef Mcinnes - Collingwood NGA
Taj Schoefield - Port FS
Alex Davies - Gold Coast Academy

Then when you nut that out, work out the permutations here, including the picks we will have to trade and all the academy clubs won't have to trade:

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/out_of_contract_players?year=2020

WB: Tipped to give top 4 a shake, have Bailey Smith coming out of contract.
Syd x 2: Will need picks
Haw: Sicily & Impey out of contract. List is a mess.
Adel: B. Crouch out of contract. Lukosious has not extended. Will the Crows risk him walking to Port because they have to take Edwards?
Coll: Grundy, De Goey & Moore out of contract.
Port: Robbie Gray UFA. Lukosious has not extended. Will the Power risk him walking to the crows because they have to take Schofield?

WE are going to have the best trade currency in the comp.
 

the big lebowski

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Let's say Pykies early seeds are correct. Do you want to take a stab where WB, Syd x 2, Haw, Adel, Coll, Port & GC will finish next year?

1. Elijah Hollands - Vic Country
2. Riley Thilthorpe - South Australia
3. Jamarra Ugle-Hagan - Vic Country *WB NGA
4. Will Phillips - Vic Metro
5. Braeden Campbell - Sydney Academy *Sydney Academy
6. Denver Granger-Baras - Western Australia
7. Connor Downie - Vic Metro - *Hawthorn NGA
8. Nathan O'Driscoll - Western Australia
9. Luke Edwards - South Australia *Adelaide FS
10. Ollie Henry - Vic Country

With the following also probably inside the next 10.

Errol Gulden - Sydney Academy
Reef Mcinnes - Collingwood NGA
Taj Schoefield - Port FS
Alex Davies - Gold Coast Academy

Then when you nut that out, work out the permutations here, including the picks we will have to trade and all the academy clubs won't have to trade:

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/out_of_contract_players?year=2020

WB: Tipped to give top 4 a shake, have Bailey Smith coming out of contract.
Syd x 2: Will need picks
Haw: Sicily & Impey out of contract. List is a mess.
Adel: B. Crouch out of contract. Lukosious has not extended. Will the Crows risk him walking to Port because they have to take Edwards?
Coll: Grundy, De Goey & Moore out of contract.
Port: Robbie Gray UFA. Lukosious has not extended. Will the Power risk him walking to the crows because they have to take Schofield?

WE are going to have the best trade currency in the comp.
I like your enthusiasm Snake. I really do.

But I just don’t see it.

All of those clubs will use their first rounder, maybe trying to shuffle backwards ie turn 10 into 18, or 10 into 4. To avoid either having to use their first pick on an academy player, or swap their pick for a late first rounder and get a player.

We got Thomas without a first rounder, who was bid on at 8. Clubs (at least most) want the top end of talent and with academy players want to maximise the value of those players. If pykie is correct and the top 5 (2 of which are academy picks) are that great, the race will be on to move up to picks 1,2,3,4,5. Picks below that will be in no mans land as they are increasingly pushed back as more bids come in.

I can’t see any demand from other clubs for picks we are likely to have next year, assuming mid table finishes for north and the godees, from a point point of view.

Further, given the ballooning nature of picks 6+, I cant see a massive demand from a trade point of view either.
 

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